Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Georgia Bulldogs: Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 2, 2018

Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm (11) hands off during the second half of an NCAA college football game gains Tennessee Saturday, Sept. 29, 2018, in Athens, Ga. Georgia won 38-12. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
John Bazemore/Associated Press

Georgia owns the rivalry with Vanderbilt, winning 20 of the last 23 meetings outright, including a 45-14 decision last year in Nashville. But the Commodores are 5-2 against the spread over the last seven meetings, pulling a couple of upsets, keeping a couple other games close as underdogs. Who's the smart bet for Saturday night's bash between the hedges?

College football point spread: The Bulldogs opened as 27.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark (line updates and matchup report).

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 46.8-18.4 Bulldogs (College football picks on every game).

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

         

Why the Vanderbilt Commodores can cover the spread

Vanderbilt just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 31-27 victory over Tennessee State last week. The Commodores trailed the Tigers 13-10 at the half, then drove their first two possessions of the second half 76 and 78 yards to touchdowns. Vanderbilt later fell down again 27-24 midway through the fourth quarter but immediately drove 73 yards in three plays to a final touchdown, then made a defensive stop in its own red zone to avoid the upset.

On the day, the Commodores logged 553 yards of offense, 256 on the ground and 297 through the air. But two early turnovers and two missed field goals basically cost Vanderbilt about 23 points, helping keep Tennessee State well within the 27-point spread.

The Commodores already own one cover against a Top 10 opponent this season. Three weeks ago, they battled back from a 16-0 deficit at Notre Dame to within 22-17 midway through the fourth quarter, and reached the Irish 31-yard line late before coming up empty on a fourth down. But they covered, getting 14 points in a tough place to play.

       

Why the Georgia Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs reached 5-0 on the season, and 3-0 in SEC play, with a 38-12 victory over Tennessee last week. Georgia, with a little luck, drove its opening possession of the game 86 yards to a touchdown, led 17-0 at the half, then drove the opening possession of the second half 75 yards to another touchdown and hung on from there.

On the day, Georgia outgained Tennessee 441-209, outrushed the Vols 251-66 and won time of possession by a 37-23 split.

In their two other games this year against Power 5 opponents, the Bulldogs beat South Carolina 41-17, covering as eight-point favorites, and defeated Missouri 43-29, pushing a 14-point line.

             

Smart betting pick

Georgia won this matchup last year 45-14, covering a 17-point spread, and there's not much reason to believe Saturday's result will be much different. However, playing at home means the spread on this game is probably inflated, and the Bulldogs have a big game at LSU next week and might try to rest key people once this one is in hand. Georgia will win this game, but the smart money takes Vandy and the points.

       

College football betting trends

Vanderbilt is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs Georgia.

Georgia is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games at home in October.

The total has gone OVER in four of Vanderbilt's last five games on the road.

       

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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