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Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 1, 2018

Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) hands off to Auburn running back Kam Martin (9) against Southern Miss during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 29, 2018, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
Vasha Hunt/Associated Press

Auburn took 10-of-11 meetings in the series with Mississippi State to begin this century, but the Bulldogs are tying to scrap back, taking three of the last six meetings straight up and going 4-2 against the spread over the last six. A struggling Mississippi State will play as a home 'dog against the Tigers on Saturday night in Starkville.

            

College football point spread: The Tigers opened as four-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 30.0-29.8 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

           

Why the Auburn Tigers can cover the spread

Since taking that tough loss to LSU three weeks ago Auburn is 2-0, following a 24-13 victory over Southern Miss last week. The Tigers hit the board first with a touchdown late in the opening quarter, led 14-3 at the half and 21-6 through three quarters before holding on from there.

Auburn didn't exactly light things up offensively, with just 341 total yards, but the Tigers defense held the Southern Miss offense to just 260 yards, 226 below what was its season average.

Auburn couldn't cover as a 27-point favorite last week, but in review that line seems inflated. The Tigers didn't help their cause when penalties and a turnover halted three incursions inside Eagles territory.

Two weeks ago Auburn defeated Arkansas 34-3 and covered a 30-point spread.

            

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Mississippi State rolled through its first three opponents this season by an average score of 50-9, but now it's trying to snap a two-game losing skid, following a 13-6 loss at home to Florida last week. The Bulldogs drew first blood at 3-0 and led 6-3 at the half.

The key play in the game may have come on Mississippi State's first possession of the second half, when a Nick Fitzgerald bomb that was going to at least get the Bulldogs inside the Gators 10-yard line was dropped. Mississippi State then punted and allowed Florida to immediately drive to a touchdown, completely reversing momentum.

A final Bulldogs drive ended on downs at the Gators 45-yard line.

Offensively Mississippi State has struggled two weeks in a row. But the Bulldogs defense has held its last two opponents to 328 yards per game.

           

Smart betting pick

The Tigers have won the last two meetings in this series by scores of 49-10 and 38-14, and while this game probably won't be decided by that much the smart money still gives the points with Auburn.

            

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in five of Auburn's last six games vs. Mississippi State.

The total has gone under in Mississippi State's last four games vs. its conference.

Auburn is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games in October.

           

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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