Best Landing Spots for Top MLB Free Agents
With 22 fanbases already focused on the upcoming offseason, we'll continue to sprinkle some free-agency content in among our postseason coverage.
Last week, we took a look at some dark-horse suitors for the top players set to become available this offseason.
The focus there was to identify some outside-the-box landing spots.
This time around, we're taking a more traditional approach and looking at the single best landing spot for all of the marquee names that will hit the open market once the World Series concludes.
Free-agency prognostication is always a fluid process, with things shifting as more rumors surface, but for now, this should serve as a preliminary primer for the 2018-19 free-agent market.
Catchers
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Yasmani Grandal: Atlanta Braves
The Braves have done an excellent job filling the catcher position with a platoon of Kurt Suzuki and Tyler Flowers the past two seasons, but with so much young pitching coming through the pipeline, stability behind the plate will be extremely important and a more long-term solution would be ideal.
Yasmani Grandal can be that cornerstone guy. Aside from his excellent offensive production (121 OPS+, 24 HR), he's also one of the best pitch-framers in baseball.
On top of that, he did a great job handling rookie right-hander Walker Buehler this season, which should be of interest to a Braves team that will be counting on a number of young arms. Buehler had a 1.94 ERA in 106.2 innings with Grandal catching him, compared to a 4.99 ERA in 30.2 innings throwing to Austin Barnes.
Wilson Ramos: Washington Nationals
Matt Wieters' time with the Nationals has mercifully come to an end, as he produced exactly 0.0 WAR over the life of his two-year, $21 million contract.
Unless they can swing a deal for J.T. Realmuto, another free-agent signing is the likely approach to addressing the position, considering in-house options Pedro Severino (213 PA, 34 OPS+) and Spencer Kieboom (143 PA, 71 OPS+) won't hit enough to be everyday options.
So why not a reunion with Wilson Ramos? The 31-year-old spent seven seasons with the team before signing with the Tampa Bay Rays after his 2016 season ended with a gruesome knee injury. Back to 100 percent and an All-Star for the second time in his career. he'd be a huge upgrade over the team's 2018 catching situation.
Other Free Agents: Drew Butera, A.J. Ellis, Nick Hundley, Jonathan Lucroy, Martin Maldonado, Jeff Mathis, Brian McCann ($15M team option), Devin Mesoraco, Rene Rivera, Kurt Suzuki, Matt Wieters
Corner Infielders
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3B Josh Donaldson: Cleveland Indians
It's been a disappointing, injury-plagued year for Josh Donaldson, but he's returned strong since the Indians acquired him in an August waiver deal.
Sidelined since late May with a calf injury, he returned in time to play 16 games with the Indians down the stretch, hitting .280/.400/.520 with three doubles and three home runs in 60 plate appearances.
Even with his MVP track record, the injury questions should be enough to keep the 32-year-old within the Indians' price range. Sliding Jose Ramirez over to second base full time would provide a clear path to sign Donaldson, and he could wind up being the steal of the offseason if he avoids further disabled-list time.
3B Mike Moustakas: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels looked like a good landing spot for Mike Moustakas last offseason before he settled for re-signing with the Kansas City Royals on a one-year, $6.5 million deal.
The right-handed-heavy lineup was sorely lacking in production from the left side, and a year later, that's still the case after lefties batted a paltry .220/.286/.397 in 2018.
While Zack Cozart was signed to play third base last offseason, he's currently recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. He could easily shift over to second base once he returns or even fill a super-utility role.
There is still the matter of a $15 million mutual option in Moustakas' current contract, but chances are he'll be hitting the open market for a second straight winter.
Other Free Agents: 1B Matt Adams, 3B Adrian Beltre, 1B Lucas Duda, 1B/3B David Freese ($6M team option), 3B Chase Headley, 3B Jung Ho Kang ($5.5M team option), 1B Joe Mauer, 1B Logan Morrison ($8M team option), 1B/OF Steve Pearce, 1B Hanley Ramirez, 1B Mark Reynolds, 3B Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B Luis Valbuena
Middle Infielders
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SS Manny Machado: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have been tied to Manny Machado off and on dating back to last offseason. Now that they won't have to mortgage any young talent to acquire him, that speculative interest could turn into legitimate pursuit.
Assuming Matt Carpenter spends the bulk of his time at first base again next season, the Cardinals would have either Jedd Gyorko or prospect Patrick Wisdom to man third base.
Gyorko is a fine player and Wisdom has shown some intriguing power potential, but Machado is a clear upgrade.
St. Louis has the money to make a splash, and with Marcell Ozuna now a year away from free agency, finding that long-term anchor in the middle of the lineup should be a priority.
2B DJ LeMahieu: Chicago Cubs
To reiterate what I wrote last week while identifying the Cubs as a dark-horse suitor for LeMahieu:
"With the uncertain future of Addison Russell and Ben Zobrist a year away from free agency, might the Cubs consider signing LeMahieu? The Cubs place a premium on infield defense, and if the price is right, it's exactly the kind of outside-the-box move that would allow manager Joe Maddon to remain flexible."
The Cubs inserted Daniel Murphy into the everyday second base job and leadoff spot in the lineup after acquiring him from the Nationals in August, and LeMahieu could fill that same role offensively.
He's also vastly superior to Murphy defensively, and a middle-infield tandem of LeMahieu and Javy Baez might as well be a brick wall behind the pitcher.
2B Jed Lowrie: Oakland Athletics
It sounds like there is mutual interest between the Athletics and All-Star second baseman Jed Lowrie in continuing their relationship beyond this season.
And why not?
The 34-year-old has been a 4-WAR player each of the past two seasons, and he's also been an invaluable veteran presence on a young Oakland team that is contending far sooner than expected.
The slow development of guys like Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo leaves no clear in-house replacement for Lowrie on the roster, and given his age, it won't break the bank to bring him back on a two-year deal.
2B Daniel Murphy: Colorado Rockies
Daniel Murphy has always been a first baseman trying his best to play second base.
His career defensive metrics at the position (-83 DRS, -5.6 UZR/150) tell you all you need to know about his glove work, and things have gone from really bad to even worse in that department (-18 DRS, -11.4 UZR/150) this year.
Luckily, he can still rake.
The 33-year-old is a career .299/.344/.458 hitter, and he's found his power stroke in recent seasons, averaging 35 doubles, 20 home runs and 80 RBI over the past three seasons.
The Rockies technically have a hole to fill at second base with DJ LeMahieu reaching free agency, but expect that job to go to Garrett Hampson until top prospect Brendan Rodgers is ready. Instead, they should sign Murphy to play first base, with Ian Desmond moving to a corner outfield spot to replace Carlos Gonzalez.
2B Brian Dozier: Minnesota Twins
Brian Dozier looks like a prime candidate for a one-year, prove-it deal to try to improve his stock.
After posting a 130 OPS+ and slugging 76 home runs over the previous two seasons, he struggled to a 92 OPS+ before the Twins sold low and traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the deadline.
Things went from bad to worse following the trade, as he hit .182/.300/.350 for a 77 OPS+ over 170 plate appearances, and now he's set to hit the open market with his stock at an all-time low.
With the Twins showing no indication they're ready to give prospect Nick Gordon a chance to win the second base job, bringing back Dozier as a stopgap option could pay dividends.
It would also allow Dozier to return to somewhere he's comfortable and has enjoyed tremendous success in the past.
Other Free Agents: SS Alcides Escobar, 2B Logan Forsythe, SS Freddy Galvis, 2B Josh Harrison ($10.5M team option), SS Adeiny Hechavarria, SS Jose Iglesias, 2B Ian Kinsler, SS Jordy Mercer
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Outfielders
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Bryce Harper: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies were aggressive last offseason—signing Jake Arrieta, Carlos Santana, Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek—and now they're expected to be major players for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
Since signing Machado would mean giving up on someone from the trio of Maikel Franco, J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery, adding Harper looks like the better fit.
The left-handed-hitting Harper would be a nice fit alongside righties Rhys Hoskins and Franco in the middle of the lineup, and he'd add some welcome swagger to a team on the rise.
For Harper, it would also be a marketing dream, as he'd be the clear face of the franchise in one of the biggest sports markets in the country.
A.J. Pollock: Arizona Diamondbacks
Since his huge 2015, A.J. Pollock has had a tough time staying healthy, averaging 79 games per season.
In 113 games this year, he posted a 106 OPS+ with 21 home runs and 13 stolen bases while playing his usual strong defense in center field (6 DRS), making him by far the best center field option on the market.
Call this one a matter of necessity for the Diamondbacks.
The team is built to win now, and there are no obvious in-house options to replace Pollock. Unless they're willing to settle for a massive downgrade either offensively or defensively, bringing back the 30-year-old has to be a priority.
As for Pollock, he was a first-round pick of the D-backs back in 2009, and they've stuck by him throughout his injury issues. Returning on a short-term deal to try to boost his value looks like a smart move.
Michael Brantley: Cleveland Indians
The only constant in the Indians outfield this season was perhaps its biggest question mark heading into the year.
Playing alongside revolving doors in center field and right field, Michael Brantley hit .309/.364/.468 with 36 doubles, 17 home runs and 76 RBI for 3.6 WAR.
The 31-year-old had played just 101 games combined over the previous two seasons, and his nagging shoulder issues made him a wild card to be an everyday contributor. With 143 games and 631 plate appearances under his belt, he's answered those injury questions in convincing fashion.
Even if Bradley Zimmer bounces back and Jason Kipnis makes the full-time move to the outfield, the Indians would still benefit from bringing Brantley back.
Nick Markakis: Oakland Athletics
The Athletics have gotten a nice boost from rookies Nick Martini and Ramon Laureano down the stretch, but they will likely still be on the lookout for outfield help this winter.
With plenty of home run power already on the roster, the front office figures to prioritize on-base ability and defense, and those are two things Nick Markakis provides.
The 34-year-old hit .297/.366/.440 with 43 doubles, 14 home runs and 93 RBI to earn his first All-Star appearance, and he's a two-time Gold Glove winner who again posted positive metrics (2 DRS, 1.1 UZR/150) in right field.
It would give the veteran a chance to play for another contender on the rise, and it would give Oakland a welcome veteran presence.
Andrew McCutchen: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are one of the few teams that might be willing to play Andrew McCutchen in center field.
They opened the 2018 season with converted second baseman Dee Gordon manning the position and played Guillermo Heredia there 89 times, despite terrible metrics (-9 DRS, -11.4 UZR/150).
If the M's don't re-sign Nelson Cruz, they could move Robinson Cano into the regular DH role, with Gordon returning to second base and McCutchen taking over as the right-handed-hitting presence in the middle of the lineup.
Otherwise, McCutchen fits on a number of teams as a corner outfielder, but he's always preferred to play center field.
Other Free Agents: Jose Bautista, Melky Cabrera, Lonnie Chisenhall, Craig Gentry, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson, Brandon Guyer ($3M team option), Jon Jay, Adam Jones, Matt Joyce, Leonys Martin, Cameron Maybin, Gerardo Parra ($12M team option), Hunter Pence, Denard Span ($12M team option)
Designated Hitters and Utility Players
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UT Marwin Gonzalez: Houston Astros
Marwin Gonzalez has been extremely valuable in the super-utility role for the Astros the past several seasons.
This season alone, the 29-year-old has lined up at left field (73), shortstop (39), second base (32), first base (24), third base (3) center field (2) and right field (1).
And after a slow start offensively, he posted an .844 OPS with 10 home runs and 31 RBI after the All-Star break.
He is simply too valuable for the Astros to let him get away.
DH Nelson Cruz: Tampa Bay Rays
As a small-market team, the Rays generally try to avoid long-term financial obligations.
Nelson Cruz won't come cheap after averaging 41 home runs and 104 RBI with a 145 OPS+ over the past five seasons, but at 38 years old, it's hard to see it taking more than a two-year commitment to secure his services.
The Rays finished 27th in the majors with 150 home runs this season, and after winning 90 games, they might be inclined to spend a bit more this offseason for a chance to contend in 2019.
Fewer and fewer teams are willing to commit to one player in the everyday DH role, but the Rays and Cruz look like a good fit.
IF Eduardo Escobar: Boston Red Sox
After several seasons as a utility infielder, Eduardo Escobar broke out in 2017 with a 100 OPS+ that included 21 home runs and 73 RBI.
His numbers were even better this season, as he posted a 118 OPS+ with 48 doubles, 23 home runs and 84 RBI while splitting the season between Minnesota and Arizona.
The 29-year-old is best suited for playing third base, but he's also capable of playing shortstop and second base.
If Eduardo Nunez declines his $4 million player option or the Red Sox decide to cut him loose, Escobar could be the perfect replacement as a platoon partner with Rafael Devers at third base and an insurance policy for Dustin Pedroia at second base.
Other Free Agents: DH Pedro Alvarez, IF Asdrubal Cabrera, UT Daniel Descalso, DH Evan Gattis, IF Eduardo Nunez ($4M player option), IF Jose Reyes, IF Sean Rodriguez, UT Andrew Romine, IF Eric Sogard, IF Neil Walker
Starting Pitchers
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Clayton Kershaw: Los Angeles Dodgers
Will Clayton Kershaw leave the only team he's ever known?
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers let their homegrown future Hall of Famer get away?
A lot can change in the weeks and months to come, but the safe money is on "no."
Expect the 30-year-old to opt out of the final two years and roughly $70 million of his current deal but only as a procedural move to sign a longer deal with the Dodgers.
Patrick Corbin: New York Yankees
For all the speculation in years past that the Yankees could be a landing spot for Bryce Harper, Manny Machado or both, the No. 1 priority this winter figures to be upgrading the starting rotation.
Assuming Clayton Kershaw stays put, Corbin is the best of the free-agent bunch.
The 29-year-old picked the perfect time for a breakout season, going 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while finishing third in the NL with 246 strikeouts in 200 innings.
With J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia and Lance Lynn all headed for free agency, he looks like the perfect complement to Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino atop the rotation.
The real question is how much he'll cost.
Dallas Keuchel: Los Angeles Angels
There's a good chance the Astros will bring back Dallas Keuchel or Charlie Morton, but re-signing both could be tricky.
Keuchel is an obvious Plan B for both the Dodgers and Yankees if the above predictions don't come to fruition.
However, as far as an ideal landing spot, the Angels look like an excellent fit.
The 30-year-old would immediately become the ace of the staff, and he's always pitched well at Angel Stadium, going 8-1 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 12 starts.
If the Angels hope to finally return to the postseason, upgrading the starting rotation is a must.
Charlie Morton: Houston Astros
Charlie Morton has made it known in the past that he would rather stay with the Astros than test the free-agent market.
He has also hinted at potentially retiring at the end of the season.
If he does decide to pitch in 2019, he looks like a prime candidate to accept a qualifying offer, which the Astros will almost certainly extend given his excellent numbers the past two seasons.
Since signing a two-year, $14 million deal, he's gone 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 364 strikeouts in 313.2 innings.
Other Free Agents: Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Bartolo Colon, Nathan Eovaldi, Marco Estrada, Doug Fister ($4.5M team option), Jaime Garcia, Gio Gonzalez, Miguel Gonzalez, Cole Hamels ($20M team option), Jason Hammel ($12M mutual option), J.A. Happ, Matt Harvey, Derek Holland, Francisco Liriano, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, Matt Moore ($10M team option), Martin Perez ($7.5M team option), Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Tyson Ross, Hyun-Jin Ryu, CC Sabathia, Anibal Sanchez, Ervin Santana ($14M team option), James Shields ($16M team option), Chris Tillman, Josh Tomlin, Adam Wainwright
Right-Handed Relief Pitchers
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Craig Kimbrel: Boston Red Sox
There's no one waiting in the wings to take over as the Red Sox closer, and with the window to contend wide-open, it's hard to see the Red Sox letting Craig Kimbrel get away.
The Dodgers broke the bank to retain Kenley Jansen, and Boston has every reason to do the same.
Since taking over the closer's role for Atlanta in 2011, Kimbrel has racked up 332 saves with a 1.97 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 14.6 K/9.
The 30-year-old has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting five times in his career and is a seven-time All-Star. At this rate, he'll go down as one of the best closers of all time. Hard to replace someone like that.
Cody Allen: Atlanta Braves
The Braves would no doubt love a reunion with Craig Kimbrel, but assuming the Red Sox do everything in their power to keep that from happening, Cody Allen is not a bad backup plan.
Atlanta pieced together the closer's role this season with Arodys Vizcaino (16/18 SV, 2.11 ERA) and A.J. Minter (15/17 SV, 3.23 ERA), and while both pitchers have the stuff to close, adding a more experienced stopper makes sense for a team with title aspirations.
Allen, 29, has piled up 147 saves over the past five seasons and his brilliant postseason track record further adds to his appeal. He's 7-for-7 in save chances with a 0.47 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 19.1 career playoff innings.
Adam Ottavino: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals wound up using Bud Norris in the closer's role for much of the 2018 season after Luke Gregerson struggled to stay healthy and Greg Holland flopped. Then, they turned to Carlos Martinez in the ninth inning down the stretch as he worked out of the bullpen in an effort to stay healthy.
With Norris headed for free agency, Holland already gone and Martinez returning to the rotation, there's once again a hole to fill at the back of the bullpen.
Flame-thrower Jordan Hicks has the stuff to close, but his 5.2 BB/9 could be reason enough to keep him in a setup role for the time being.
The St. Louis front office has often gone outside the box when it comes to addressing the closer's role, so signing 32-year-old Adam Ottavino, who has 17 career saves, would be on brand.
A first-round pick by the Cardinals in 2006, Ottavino tallied 34 holds and six saves for the Rockies this season while pitching to a 2.43 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with a career-high 13.0 K/9.
Kelvin Herrera: Cleveland Indians
The Indians swung a deal to acquire Brad Hand at the trade deadline in part because they desperately needed bullpen help here in 2018, but also as a contingency plan of sorts with Cody Allen and Andrew Miller both set to become free agents.
Assuming both guys leave, the Indians will be looking to bolster the bullpen, although not necessarily by adding a closer.
The hard-throwing Herrera closed games for the Royals the past three seasons prior to being traded to the Nationals in June, but he's long been one of the league's best setup relievers.
He won't come cheap, but he'll be a bargain compared to what Miller is likely to receive, and he can be every bit as effective.
Other Free Agents: John Axford, Tony Barnette, Matt Belisle, Joaquin Benoit, Blaine Boyer, Brad Brach, Santiago Casilla, Jesse Chavez, Tyler Clippard, Jeurys Familia, Greg Holland, Daniel Hudson, Jim Johnson, Joe Kelly, Shawn Kelley, Brandon Kintzler ($10M team option), Jordan Lyles ($3.5M team option), Ryan Madson, Zach McAllister, Peter Moylan, Bud Norris, David Phelps, A.J. Ramos, David Robertson, Fernando Rodney ($4.25M team option), Sergio Romo, Fernando Salas, Joakim Soria ($10M team option), Junichi Tazawa, Shawn Tolleson, Adam Warren, Blake Wood
Left-Handed Relief Pitchers
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Andrew Miller: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers almost acquired Aroldis Chapman to pair with incumbent closer Kenley Jansen a few years ago, so the presence of one all-world closer does not preclude them from making a run at another elite-level reliever.
Enter Andrew Miller.
Sorting out the Clayton Kershaw situation will be the team's No. 1 priority this offseason, but once that's dealt with, bolstering the relief corps could be its first area of focus.
Miller signed a four-year, $36 million deal last time he hit free agency, and even at 33 years old and coming off an injury-plagued season, he'll almost certainly top that this time around.
The Dodgers have the money to spend and the need.
Zach Britton: Houston Astros
With all due respect to Tony Sipp, who has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season for the Astros, the team has been without an impact lefty reliever for some time now.
While Britton might never return to his 2015-2016 form when he was a legitimate Cy Young candidate and virtually untouchable, he's still capable of being an excellent late-inning option.
With Roberto Osuna now locked into the closer's role, the Astros would be signing him to pitch the eighth inning. Other teams will no doubt be willing to give him a chance to close, but there might not be a better situation if winning a title is his top priority.
The Astros have no glaring needs, assuming they can find a way to bring back Dallas Keuchel and/or Charlie Morton, so they can afford to splurge on a bullpen arm.
Other Free Agents: Jerry Blevins, Jorge De La Rosa, Jake Diekman, Zach Duke, Boone Logan, Oliver Perez, Hector Santiago, Tony Sipp, Justin Wilson
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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