Real Madrid Searching for Answers Ahead of Madrid Derby

Before the weekend's set of fixtures in La Liga, Atletico Madrid trailed league leaders Barcelona by seven points. In the space of a few days, Barca dropped five points in two games while Real Madrid, lying in second place, crashed to a 3-0 defeat to Sevilla. Suddenly Atletico Madrid—who have won three games on the bounce, including a 2-1 win at Monaco in the UEFA Champions League—are back in the title race.

Real Madrid's defeat in Seville—in which they were "humiliated," according to Thursday's Diario Sport – has sent the reigning European Cup holders onto the verge of a crisis. Sevilla carved open Real Madrid's defence in a flurry of counter-attacks, rushing into the spaces provided by Marcelo and Sergio Ramos' positional indiscipline. Sevilla's right wing-back, Jesus Navas, had a field day on Marcelo's flank. Before half-time, Sevilla had banged in three goals. Real Madrid were overrun, insipid. Karim Benzema was anonymous in attack. There was no comeback.

"Real Madrid has a problem with mental preparation," says Oscar Sanz, a journalist with El Pais. "They went out onto the pitch against Sevilla undercooked. Barca lost just before the game kicked off against Leganes, which meant that if Real Madrid had drawn or won they would have gone top of the table.

"We have a word in Spanish for it—'contemporizar.' It means to let the time pass, to take it in your stride. Real Madrid's players trust themselves so much that they had in their heads the notion that whatever comes to pass, they will fix it. That's not always the case—and definitely not against teams like Sevilla. Sevilla was extraordinary in the first half. Real Madrid didn't have the chance to turn things around. They had half-chances, especially a one-on-one Gareth Bale had with the goalkeeper that could have changed things, but with Real Madrid, it was a problem of attitude.

"Real Madrid often suffers from excessive confidence. Marcelo is a very clear example of what is happening with Real Madrid—a belief that 'whatever I fail in defence, I will fix in attack.' They trust in themselves too much. That [complacency] doesn't happen in the Champions League, where in the last few years, there were very few matches where they showed such an overly relaxed attitude. The 3-0 win against Roma, for instance, was the best performance by a team so far this season in Europe."

CRISTINA QUICLER/Getty Images

Real Madrid have one glaring problem. They lack firepower. They have only scored two goals in their last three league games. Cristiano Ronaldo is the elephant in the room. It's difficult to replace a player who averaged 50 goals a season over nine years at the club. It's more, though, than Ronaldo's phenomenal goal-per-game strike rate—Benzema, for example, notched four goals in his first four league games this season. It's that Ronaldo nearly always showed up on the big days.

"Real Madrid this year has played well against the weaker teams, but it had three serious matches away from home and against strong teams—Sevilla, Athletic Bilbao and in the final of the UEFA Super Cup—and it hasn't won any of them," says Inako Diaz-Guerra, a journalist with El Mundo. 

"It was in those kinds of matches where Cristiano Ronaldo was a decisive player. In the games that got complicated, he solved a lot of problems. They don't have that anymore. Bale and Benzema can't do it. Neither can Isco or Marco Asensio, who are both amazing players. They need Cristiano. He's a big loss. They miss his fangs."

Sanz has a counter-argument: "Real Madrid this season has an advantage, from my point of view, which might seem very strange—they don't have Cristiano. It's an advantage because a lot of Real Madrid players feel a lot more important than they felt before. They've grown in stature. Before, all the compliments were for Cristiano. The goals all came from Cristiano, the awards were won by Cristiano. His departure should be a reason to improve their morale, to give them more confidence.

"The match against Sevilla was an isolated situation. For example, against Athletic Bilbao in San Mames, Real Madrid had a very good attitude. They drew 1-1 because they had a very powerful rival in front of them, playing in their house. Losing against Sevilla wasn't a case of a side missing Cristiano. Real Madrid has lost in Seville five times in the previous six seasons—when Cristiano was playing." 

Fran Guillen, a Madrid-based football journalist and author of Diego Costa: The Art of War, is sceptical of this theory, however: "The club had to sell a new speech for the hope of its fans—that now the squad is closer together, a family, less selfish, without the star who always wanted the ball, who always wanted to score. But it would be silly not to mention that Real Madrid is a worse team without him. It's mathematics—50 goals a year less would make any team poorer."

It was noticeable that Real Madrid refrained from buying a world-class player to replace Ronaldo during the summer, instead opting to buy back Mariano Diaz from Lyon as a back-up striker to fill the No. 7 jersey. They are short of cash while on the hook for a massive €575 million refurbishment of its stadium, the Santiago Bernabeu, having failed to secure a naming rights deal with potential sponsors Cepsa.

Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

"The problem is purely economical," says Guillen. "Florentino couldn't find any Arabic company or big brand to help cover the costs. The building project is approved and they are going to start very soon. Nowadays for Real Madrid the main objective for the club is its new stadium. This will affect its player signings."

Now is the time for Bale—the galactico Real Madrid signed as an heir apparent to Ronaldo for a world-record transfer fee in 2013—to step in from the shadows. Doubts linger about him: He has a troubled injury profile. He lacks Ronaldo's strut. There was a reason Real Madrid's three-time UEFA Champions League-winning coach Zidane dropped him from his starting XI.

"The problem with Bale is one of personality, not one of football," says Sanz. "He needs to impose himself. He should take the team's penalties. Instead, Sergio Ramos comes along and takes the penalties because he is captain. Before, Cristiano never discussed those decisions. He just took them. Bale doesn't have the personality to be the team's reference. It's interesting because he has the capacity to do it; for example, he fulfils that role for Wales. With Wales, everything goes through him. 

"Against Sevilla, Bale was the only player that really tried to knock down the door. He took the team on his shoulders. He should trust in himself more. This season, Real Madrid depends 90 per cent for its chances on the performances of Bale. If Bale performs, Real Madrid will triumph whether that's in the league or in Europe. Bale is the key. Right now, Real Madrid needs Bale like a person needs food because Benzema can't fulfil that role." 

Over in the red-and-white corner of the city, Atletico Madrid—who started sluggishly in the league, losing to Celta Vigo and dropping points to Valencia and Eibar—are waiting for their two star players to hit their strides. Antoine Griezmann is slowly chugging into gear after his FIFA World Cup-winning heroics with France during the summer. The form of Diego Costa—who remarkably hasn't scored a goal in La Liga since February—is possibly more troubling.

Soccrates Images/Getty Images

"Costa is an unusual player because he's very irregular," says Diaz-Guerra. "He's a player that sometimes seems like he's disconnected, or he is not entirely into the match. If he's not 100 per cent fit, his level drops a lot.

"I think he's a little bit lost. He needs Griezmann and Thomas Lemar and Koke to step up—to try and find him with longer passes into space, because it showed with the Spain national team and in games with Atletico in the league that when it's played short to him, he suffers. He needs to be given long balls.

"If you think of his best performances this year—it was in those games against Portugal in the World Cup and against Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup final when he was given the ball with enough room to run and attack. That's when he can be decisive."

Aitor Alcalde/Getty Images

Whether Costa will be decisive when Atletico Madrid take on Real Madrid tomorrow is one of several fascinating subplots to the latest round of the city's ancient derby. Atletico coach Diego Simeone will smell blood. He has momentum on his side and an impressive record at the Bernabeu since winning the Copa del Rey final at the stadium in 2013. Counterpart Julen Lopetegui's position is already under threat. A second ignominious defeat in the space of a few days would have the vultures circling. He'll be hoping that Bale steps up to the plate.

All quotes and information obtained firsthand unless otherwise indicated.

Follow Richard on Twitter: @Richard_Fitz.