Oklahoma Sooners vs. Iowa State Cyclones Odds, College Football Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 12, 2018

Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray (1) throws during an NCAA college football game between UCLA and Oklahoma in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 8, 2018. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
Sue Ogrocki/Associated Press

Oklahoma beat Iowa State 18 times in a row into last season's meeting, and covered the spread the last four with blowouts. But the Cyclones pulled off one of the great shockers of last season, a 38-31 upset of the Sooners in Norman. Oklahoma seeks revenge when the teams meet for their Big 12 opener Saturday afternoon in Ames.

College football point spread: The Sooners opened as 17.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.0-14.8 Sooners (College football picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

Why the Oklahoma Sooners can cover the spread

The Sooners opened this season two weeks ago with a surprisingly easy 63-14 romp over Florida Atlantic, covering as 20-point favorites. Then last week OU beat UCLA 49-21, although it couldn't quite cover a 31-point spread.

Oklahoma spotted the Bruins the game's first touchdown, then scored the next 42 points. The Sooners had the spread covered at 42-7 and at 49-14 but gave up a UCLA touchdown (on a fourth down from the OU nine-yard line) with four minutes to go to miss out on the cash.

Kyler Murray, in his thus-far successful effort to replace Heisman winner Baker Mayfield at quarterback for Oklahoma, threw for 306 yards and ran for 69 more. Meanwhile the Sooners defense forced seven punts and a fourth-down failure on eight straight Bruins drives, from the first quarter into the fourth.

Two weeks ago the Sooners led the Owls 56-0 in the third quarter before taking their foot off the gas.

Why the Iowa State Cyclones can cover the spread

After getting their season opener weathered-out two weeks ago the Cyclones opened last week at Iowa and took a tough 13-3 loss. Iowa State, as just a three-point dog on the road, drove its opening possession of the game to the Hawkeyes' one-yard line, but settled for a field goal. That 3-0 lead held well into the second quarter, and the Cyclones only trailed 6-3 well into the fourth. But Iowa added an insurance touchdown with five minutes to go and ISU could not respond.

On the day Iowa State only came up with 188 yards of total offense, but only gave up 271 yards to Iowa. The Cyclones just couldn't keep the chains moving, going 4/14 on third-down conversions.

Perhaps now with a game under its belt Iowa State will be a little sharper offensively this week.

Smart betting pick

Oklahoma is without injured running back Rodney Anderson, while Iowa State quarterback Kyle Kempt is iffy for Saturday with a sore knee. But Kempt is probably more important to the Cyclones than Anderson is to the Sooners.

Also, Oklahoma owns a 16-game road winning streak, which includes an 11-5 run ATS. Finally, revenge isn't always a reliable handicapping factor, but it might play a part here. Smart money sides with the Sooners.

College football betting trends

Oklahoma is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games against Iowa State.

The total has gone over in five of Oklahoma's last six games against Iowa State.

Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in its last six games on the road in September.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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