Boise State Broncos vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 11, 2018

Boise State helmet in the second half of an NCAA college football game against Connecticut, Saturday, Sept. 8, 2018, in Boise, Idaho. Boise State won 62-7. (AP Photo/Steve Conner)
Steve Conner/Associated Press

Boise State, forever known for that stunning upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl 11 years ago, is 6-3 straight up and 5-4 against the spread its last nine games against Power Five conference opponents. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is 10-1 SU and 6-5 ATS its last 11 times out against non-Power Five foes. Who's the smart bet for Saturday afternoon's Broncos-Cowboys battle in Stillwater, Oklahoma?


College football point spread: The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 41.7-41.7 tie (College football picks on every game)

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Why the Boise State Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos are 2-0 both SU and ATS on this young season after clobbering Connecticut last week 62-7. Boise State scored on its first eight possessions of the game to lead 48-0 before letting the Huskies hit the board late in the third quarter. The Broncos then tacked on two more touchdowns to secure the cover as 34-point favorites.

On the evening, Boise State racked up a school-record 818 yards on offense, 400 on the ground and 418 through the air. The Broncos also held UConn to just 193 total yards, just 78 in the first half, made 38 first downs compared to just nine for the Huskies and won time of possession by a 38-to-22 split.

Two weeks ago, Boise State opened this season with a 56-20 trouncing of Troy in Alabama, covering as nine-point favorites.


Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys can cover the spread

The Cowboys are also 2-0 this season following their 55-13 victory over South Alabama last week. Oklahoma State let the Jaguars stick around for a little while, leading by just 24-13 late into the second quarter, but scored the final 31 points of the game for the win and the cover as a 30-point favorite.

On the evening, the Cowboys outgained South Alabama 617-214 and made 32 first downs to 15 for the Jaguars. Senior quarterback Taylor Cornelius, trying to replace the departed Mason Rudolph, connected on 25 of 40 throws for 428 yards, while wide receivers Tylan Wallace and Tyron Johnson combined to catch 15 balls for 203 yards. Meanwhile, the OSU defense held South Alabama to 3.0 yards per play.

Through his first two games as a starter, Cornelius has hit on 49 of 74 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns.

Two weeks ago, the Cowboys opened their season with a 58-17 victory over FCS Missouri State, although they came up one score short of covering as 45-point favorites.


Smart betting pick

Over the last four seasons, the Broncos own road wins over Oregon State and Virginia and bowl victories over Arizona and Oregon. They love chances like this, and they've got a team that could win this one outright. Smart money here bets Boise State.


College football betting trends

The total has gone over in eight of Oklahoma State's last 10 games at home in September.

The total has gone over in 12 of Boise State's last 15 games on the road in September.

Boise State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.


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