Miami Hurricanes vs. LSU Tigers Odds, Analysis, College Football Betting Pick

The Miami Hurricanes, even in their burst of success last year, only managed to go 3-6 against the spread when favored on the betting lines. The LSU Tigers, on the other hand, played 3-0 ATS as underdogs last year. Who's the better bet when Miami and LSU hook up Sunday evening on neutral turf at JerryWorld in Arlington, Texas?

College football point spread: The Hurricanes opened as three-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 32.2-24.2 Tigers (College football picks on every game)

Why the Miami Hurricanes can cover the spread

The Hurricanes get back 14 starters this season from a team that finished 10-3 last year and made its first-ever appearance in the ACC Championship Game. Miami started 10-0 last year but lost that championship game to a very good team in Clemson, and its bowl game to a pretty good team in Wisconsin.

So the Hurricanes are trying to use last season as a stepping stone on the return to greatness under head coach Mark Richt. Seven starters are back on offense, led by senior quarterback Malik Rosier, running back Travis Homer (1,185 yards from scrimmage in 2017) and three along the offensive line. And seven starters are back on a defense that forced 31 turnovers last year, third-most in FBS, including last year's top five tacklers.

Why the LSU Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers return 10 starters from a team that finished 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS last season. LSU only started 6-3 last year, then looked pretty good in winning three games in a row. And they should have made it four in a row to end the season but they coughed up a late lead and lost to Notre Dame in a bowl game.

Five starters are back on offense, led by three along the offensive line. Plus, they brought in junior quarterback transfer Joe Burrow, who looked good in spots for Ohio State. And five starters are back, including three of last year's top four tacklers from a defense that limited foes to just 316 yards per game last season.

Smart betting pick

The Tigers should own the home-crowd advantage here, playing about an early-morning drive from Baton Rouge. However, LSU must replace last year's top five skills players, and it's working under a new offensive coordinator with a new quarterback. And combinations like that involve learning curves.

Miami, meanwhile, is thinking big for this season, which means it needs this one. Despite the recent favorite/underdog trends in this matchup smart money bets the Hurricanes. 

College football betting trends

The total has gone over in six of LSU's last eight games in Week 1.

Miami is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games in Week 1.

Miami is 10-0 SU in its last 10 games in September.

All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.