2018 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Final Predictions Before NFL Regular Season
Can the fantasy landscape change that much in two weeks?
Our last mock draft was posted Aug. 15. With three preseason games in the books, rankings have been adjusted multiple times. If you were hoping for Ronald Jones to emerge and pass Peyton Barber on the depth chart in Tampa Bay, that wait will continue into the regular season. After breaking his finger, Rashaad Penny returned to practice for the Seattle Seahawks, but Chris Carson still appears to be the man in that backfield.
Ezekiel Elliott could enter the season with up to three of his starting offensive linemen dealing with injuries. That's caused enough concern to push down his average draft position (ADP) to RB4 behind Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson. It's fair to say Antonio Brown might be the safest pick in all of fantasy football based on his consistency, so taking him in front of Elliott or any back not named Gurley is defensible.
If you're preparing for a draft this weekend, remember that it's useless to plan multiple picks. You might have an idea of where you want to go in the first few rounds, but as this mock draft demonstrates, the board may not mimic what you've seen in other mocks. Flexibility is the best draft strategy of all.
This mock draft is a 12-team, points-per-reception (PPR) format with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1 K and 1 D. It was run using FantasyPros Draft Simulator. While I picked from the No. 3 spot, the autogenerated teams used the expert consensus rankings and composite average draft position.
In addition to analyzing each round, I'll take you inside my head to explain the strategy and process for each of my picks.
Round 1
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Round 1
1. RB Todd Gurley, LAR
2. RB David Johnson, ARI
3. RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT
4. WR Antonio Brown, PIT
5. RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
6. RB Saquon Barkley, NYG
7. RB Alvin Kamara, NO
8. WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
9. WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG
10. WR Michael Thomas, NO
11. RB Kareem Hunt, KC
12. WR Julio Jones, ATL
More Balance than Usual
While Brown, Hopkins and Beckham all have ADPs inside the top 12, Jones and Thomas are a bit surprising to see in the first round, as they typically come off the board at the beginning of the second round. Of course, there's nothing wrong with taking either of those players in the first round, as it pushes some strong RB1s into the second round.
Inside the Mind
Even though I expected to take Brown at No. 3, Bell surprisingly fell to that spot, so this pick was easy. I'm a huge advocate of Bell sitting out the preseason for the second straight year, so there's no concern about his absence. That should allow him to be fresher late in the season.
With Bell on my roster as an elite RB1, it moves the position down my priority list for the next round or two, although that depends on who is available when my turn comes in the second. The end of the second round has been tough to predict, as we move into more of the RB2/WR2 tier.
Round 2
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Round 2
13. WR Davante Adams, GB
14. RB Melvin Gordon, LAC
15. WR Keenan Allen, LAC
16. RB Christian McCaffrey, CAR
17. RB Leonard Fournette, JAC
18. RB Dalvin Cook, MIN
19. RB Devonta Freeman, ATL
20. WR A.J. Green, CIN
21. WR Adam Thielen, MIN
22. WR T.Y. Hilton, IND
23. RB Joe Mixon, CIN
24. WR Doug Baldwin, SEA
The Slide
After Thomas and Jones jumped into the first round, we get a bigger swerve, with Adams coming off the board at No. 13 overall. That's a pretty significant jump over his ADP of 18.8/WR7. I'm a big believer in Adams because I'm a big believer in Aaron Rodgers. Adams is in the WR1 tier, so this isn't a reach as much as it is personal preference.
With six wide receivers off the board within the first 13 picks, the running back talent you'd typically see go in the first round is available here. Gordon and Fournette have to be considered values, especially with Fournette going after Allen and McCaffrey. Thielen is the biggest surprise of this round.
Inside the Mind
Knowing Bell was already on board, wide receiver looked like the position to attack with my second pick. Baldwin and Hilton were the only ones on the board in my WR1 tier, but I thought I had a chance to get Baldwin with my pick early in the third round. I decided to take Hilton, knowing his ADP was about six spots higher than Baldwin's. If I opened the draft with Brown, Mixon would have been the pick here.
Round 3
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Round 3
25. WR Stefon Diggs, MIN
26. TE Rob Gronkowski, NE
27. WR Mike Evans, TB
28. RB Jerick McKinnon, SF
29. RB Jordan Howard, CHI
30. RB Alex Collins, BAL
31. WR Tyreek Hill, KC
32. RB LeSean McCoy, BUF
33. RB Kenyan Drake, MIA
34. TE Travis Kelce, KC
35. QB Aaron Rodgers, GB
36. WR Amari Cooper, OAK
Make a Call
Will the first two rounds affect how you treat the third? You could go best player available or focus on a position you haven't attacked with your first two picks. If you're not feeling the running back or wide receiver talent, taking Gronkowski or Kelce makes perfect sense. Rodgers might be the top quarterback, but that position is deep enough to avoid taking one this early.
Even though this round provides talent with high ceilings such as Diggs, Gronkowski, Evans, McKinnon, Hill, Kelce and Rodgers, it produces some solid RB2s with reliable floors like Howard and Collins.
Inside the Mind
Missing out on Baldwin was a bummer, but it should be a lesson learned that if you really want a player, don't assume he'll be available in a later round. With Bell on the roster already, I knew I had plenty of chances to get an RB2 to pair with him. Even though I'm not a huge fan of Evans' situation in Tampa Bay, I'll take him as a WR2 knowing he has WR1 upside.
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Round 4
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Round 4
37. TE Zach Ertz, PHI
38. WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
39. WR Josh Gordon, CLE
40. WR Golden Tate, DET
41. WR Jarvis Landry, CLE
42. WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN
43. WR Allen Robinson, CHI
44. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
45. WR Sammy Watkins, KC
46. RB Dion Lewis, TEN
47. RB Jay Ajayi, PHI
48. RB Lamar Miller, HOU
No. 2
We're now firmly in the WR2/RB2 tier, which should be expected in the fourth round. This is where the wide receiver depth is on full display, although the selection of Gordon is a big and unnecessary reach. Gordon has great talent, but taking him this early means he has to play to his full potential, which hasn't happened in years.
It would be easier to justify the pick if he were on a better team with a better QB, but he's not.
Every other pick in this wide receiver-heavy round makes sense. Plus, Ajayi and Miller are perfect RB2s. Ertz has gone as early as the third round in other drafts I've done, although with an ADP of 36.6, his landing spot here is right in line.
Inside the Mind
I'll preach draft-strategy flexibility for the rest of my career, but if you have a plan and the board falls the right way, by all means, stick to your plan.
I wanted to get a second running back and felt Lewis would be there as my target. He was the highest-ranked RB on my board and a personal favorite, so this pick was easy. With my top two running back and wide receiver spots handled, it gave me some flexibility heading into the fifth round. I had two players in mind and felt comfortable getting one of them.
Round 5
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Round 5
49. WR Chris Hogan, NE
50. WR Brandin Cooks, LAR
51. RB Mark Ingram II, NO
52. QB Russell Wilson, SEA
53. RB Derrick Henry, TEN
54. WR Corey Davis, TEN
55. RB Royce Freeman, DEN
56. QB Deshaun Watson, HOU
57. TE Delanie Walker, TEN
58. RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK
59. TE Jimmy Graham, GB
60. RB Rex Burkhead, NE
Settling In
After four picks, the foundations for each team are in place. That allows for a bit more flexibility, which means you can go with the best player on the board. I'd remove QB from that conversation, but we see two more top quarterbacks come off the board in Wilson and Watson.
Lynch might be the lead back in Oakland, but he's hardly a player you have to reach for at this point in his career. This is the earliest I've seen him go in any draft, which is backed up by his ADP of 63/RB25. Even though I'm not much of a Henry fan, that pick is justified since he's usually off the board around 41.6 as RB19.
Inside the Mind
Picking third in this round put me in good shape to get one of the two players I wanted, which ended up happening. Hogan was my first target as the top wide receiver in New England, but I knew there was a chance he could be gone with his fantasy stock on the rise. I pivoted to Ingram knowing how much I liked the depth at WR.
With Bell and Lewis already occupying the top two running back spots on my roster, I don't have to rely on Ingram. That's obviously important with his four-game suspension to open the season. When he returns, the hope is that he can post reliable RB2 numbers and move into my starting lineup, with Lewis shifting into the flex spot. Ideally, both players perform at an RB2 level to boost my flex position.
Round 6
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Round 6
61. QB Tom Brady, NE
62. WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET
63. QB Cam Newton, CAR
64. WR Michael Crabtree, BAL
65. WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI
66. TE Greg Olsen, CAR
67. RB Kyle Rudolph, MIN
68. TE Evan Engram, NYG
69. TE Trey Burton, CHI
70. WR Marquise Goodwin, SF
71. WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
72. QB Drew Brees, NO
Plans Change
Olsen is a solid value in the sixth round, but three picks later, we see a reach for Burton. At Burton's ADP of 87/TE10, you'd be using a valuable pick on a mostly unproven player. Seeing him go almost 20 picks earlier than that is foolish and unnecessary.
Even if you're against taking a quarterback early, getting Brady in the sixth round is a pretty good value with his ADP of 51.6. Jones and Sanders are solid picks as regular contributors to their respective offenses. Crabtree might lead the Ravens in receiving, but that doesn't mean he's in for a big year. His low ceiling isn't worth the reach when his ADP is already too high at 66.6
Inside the Mind
Knowing my running back group should be settled, my focus shifted to wide receivers, with three starting spots in addition to the flex spot. The depth of the position is on full display over the next few rounds, but that also includes Goodwin here.
He'll enter the season as my WR3 with the upside to be a WR2 as the most explosive wideout in San Francisco. Olsen is the No. 4 tight end on my board, but he was the only one available I would have considered this early.
Round 7
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Round 7
73. WR Robert Woods, LAR
74. QB Andrew Luck, IND
75. WR Nelson Agholor, PHI
76. RB Chris Thompson, WAS
77. QB Carson Wentz, PHI
78. QB Kirk Cousins, MIN
79. QB Matthew Stafford, DET
80. WR Julian Edelman, NE
81. QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
82. RB Carlos Hyde, CLE
83. RB Tevin Coleman, ATL
84. RB Kerryon Johnson, DET
Caught in the Run?
Five quarterbacks come off the board in this round, and while none of the picks is an egregious reach, a lesson can be learned. If you planned on waiting for a quarterback and see a run of four QBs coming off the board in the same round, it doesn't mean you have to follow the trend. In fact, it's better that you don't because you can improve elsewhere and still find your quarterback in a future round.
Much like Ingram, Edelman could provide a boost upon his return from a four-game suspension. He could turn into a WR2 in PPR formats, which would be a big return on a moderate investment. If he's only a WR3, the pick is still worth it. Tevin Coleman is another safe selection as an RB3 who can put up RB2 numbers in a good week. Plus, he'd get a huge boost if Devonta Freeman goes down with an injury.
Inside the Mind
Agholor has been a target in almost every draft I've done because of how badly he's been undervalued. He's arguably the top WR in Philadelphia with Jeffery still working back his way from offseason shoulder surgery. For some reason, Agholor isn't getting a lot of respect with an ADP of 107.8/WR42 after finishing as WR22 in 2017.
Even a little regression makes him well worth taking as one of the last starters in your lineup or as a top backup.
Round 8
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Round 8
85. RB Chris Carson, SEA
86. WR Will Fuller V, HOU
87. RB Rashaad Penny, SEA
88. RB Tarik Cohen, CHI
89. WR Devin Funchess, CAR
90. WR Jamison Crowder, WAS
91. WR Dez Bryant, FA
92. RB Sony Michel, NE
93. RB Duke Johnson, CLE
94. RB Jamaal Williams, GB
95. WR Cooper Kupp, LAR
96. RB Peyton Barber, TB
Starting Impact
These picks could be the final additions to your starting lineup or the best bench options. When Week 1 rolls around, almost every player in this round should either be starting or in line for a consistent role on his team. Penny and Michel may not be set for big roles immediately, but they have long-term value as potential starters down the road.
Crowder has been a great WR3 target in PPR drafts, and with an ADP of 89/WR37, he's valued properly in this draft. If you can get your hands on the clear-cut top wide receiver of a solid offense in the eighth round, it's a big victory. Crowder and Kupp could put up similar numbers with target-rich seasons.
Inside the Mind
Part of the Ingram plan is to make sure you get a reliable running back to cover his absence for the first month. With Bell and Lewis already on my team, finding that reliable RB wasn't as important. However, Williams is usually one of those targets, and as the top running back in Green Bay, he's more than just a replacement player.
Getting him as my fourth RB is a low-risk move that could turn out great if he stays on top of the depth chart.
Round 9
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Round 9
97. WR Sterling Shepard, NYG
98. RB Marlon Mack, IND
99. QB Philip Rivers, LAC
100. RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ
101. WR Jordy Nelson, OAK
102. RB Aaron Jones, GB
103. RB Ronald Jones, TB
104. WR Pierre Garcon, SF
105. RB James White, NE
106. D/ST Jaguars
107. RB Nick Chubb, CLE
108. RB Jordan Wilkins, IND
End of the Lineup or Start of the Bench?
Other than Shepard, Rivers, Nelson and Garcon, the players in this round should be considered fantasy backups to open the season.
The Indianapolis Colts have not settled anything in their backfield, which makes it tough to use Mack or Wilkins with confidence until further notice. Chubb will open the season behind Carlos Hyde in a backfield that also includes Duke Johnson. Aaron Jones has to serve a two-game suspension and may not jump into a big role upon his return.
Ronald Jones has yet to impress in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield, which resulted in one of the biggest drops in fantasy value from the start of the preseason until now. He was considered a good value at No. 80 in our last mock draft two weeks ago. Now, he's clearly behind Barber and tumbling down draft boards as a result.
Inside the Mind
Waiting on a QB predictably paid off, as Rivers was still available here. The wait could have continued with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff also available, but no other players jumped out as must-gets in this round. Rivers always has top-10 potential with plenty of talent around him in the Los Angeles Chargers offense. He was a much better pick than that ridiculous selection of the Jaguars defense.
Round 10
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Round 10
109. D/ST Vikings
110. TE Jordan Reed, WAS
111. RB Giovani Bernard, CIN
112. RB Theo Riddick, DET
113. WR Randall Cobb, GB
114. TE Jack Doyle, IND
115. TE O.J. Howard, TB
116. TE David Njoku, CLE
117. RB C.J. Anderson, CAR
118. TE George Kittle, SF
119. WR Robby Anderson, NYJ
120. WR Allen Hurns, DAL
Potential to Win
Taking a defense this early won't put you ahead of the game since it's a position you can stream with success. Instead of taking one, check out some of the diamonds in the rough who could provide major boosts if they hit.
Reed's injury history will follow him forever, yet that's already built into his draft value in the double-digit rounds. Njoku has a wealth of talent that's been on display throughout the preseason, but he's another player you don't have to spend a high pick on even though he has breakout potential. Cobb is a starting wide receiver for a team with Rodgers at quarterback. That's valuable.
Inside the Mind
For the most part, this draft didn't throw many curveballs my way, and I was able to stick to my loose plan. Knowing tight end was still a need, the plan was to get one this round with so many targets available. Unfortunately, Reed, Doyle and Njoku all came off the board before my spot.
I settled for Kittle, who I like, although not as much as the others. Luckily, this isn't a big investment, so if Kittle doesn't work out, I can move on without much regret. I decided to address the position again before the end of the draft.
Rounds 11-13
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Round 11
121. WR Kelvin Benjamin, BUF
122. RB Corey Clement, PHI
123. RB Bilal Powell, NYJ
124. TE Cameron Brate, TB
125. RB Ty Montgomery, GB
126. WR John Brown, ARI
127. WR DeVante Parker, MIA
128. WR Kenny Stills, MIA
129. TE Tyler Eifert, CIN
130. RB Adrian Peterson, WAS
131. WR D.J. Moore, CAR
132. RB Devontae Booker, DEN
Round 12
133. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, JAC
134. D/ST Rams
135. RB Matt Breida, SF
136. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
137. WR Calvin Ridley, ATL
138. D/ST Eagles
139. QB Jared Goff, LAR
140. WR Mike Williams, LAC
141. D/ST Chargers
142. WR Keelan Cole, JAC
143. QB Patrick Mahomes, KC
144. WR Anthony Miller, CHI
Round 13
145. TE Charles Clay, BUF
146. TE Jared Cook, OAK
147. RB Austin Ekeler, LAC
148. RB Latavius Murray, MIN
149. QB Matt Ryan, ATL
150. D/ST Broncos
151. RB LeGarrette Blount, DET
152. TE Austin Hooper, ATL
153. WR Tyler Lockett, SEA
154. TE Jake Butt, DEN
155. RB Nyheim Hines, IND
156. RB Javorius Allen, BAL
Personal Preference
Once you get this late in the draft, rankings don't matter as much as personal preference. Usually, I have a handful of players at each position to target in these rounds. Most of the time, they are high-upside, low-risk options like Mike Williams and Patrick Mahomes. You could also go with high-floor, low-ceiling players to provide safe depth like LeGarrette Blount and Charles Clay.
Inside the Mind
Missing Clement by one pick was a disappointment, since he fit my high-ceiling, low-risk profile. Instead, I pivoted to the boring route with Powell. He's a decent player on a below-average team, so I'm banking on him being on the field more when the Jets are playing from behind. Luckily, I was able to land a big-upside player in Cole, who might wind up as the top WR in Jacksonville following the season-ending knee injury suffered by Marqise Lee.
Rounds 14-16
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Round 14
157. QB Alex Smith, WAS
158. WR Cameron Meredith, NO
159. QB Marcus Mariota, TEN
160. RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL
161. RB D'Onta Foreman, HOU
162. QB Derek Carr, OAK
163. RB Samaje Perine, WAS
164. WR Michael Gallup, DAL
165. WR Josh Doctson, WAS
166. TE Benjamin Watson, NO
167. WR Chris Godwin, TB
168. RB Doug Martin, OAK
Round 15
169. D/ST Saints
170. D/ST Ravens
171. D/ST Lions
172. QB Dak Prescott, DAL
173. D/ST Texans
174. WR Kenny Golladay, DET
175. WR Mohamed Sanu, ATL
176. D/ST Patriots
177. D/ST Steelers
178. WR Danny Amendola, MIA
179. RB Rob Kelley, WAS
180. WR Tyrell Williams, LAC
Round 16
181. K Stephen Gostkowski, NE
182. K Greg Zuerlein, LAR
183. K Justin Tucker, BAL
184. K Matt Bryant, ATL
185. K Wil Lutz, NO
186. K Chris Boswell, PIT
187. K Jake Elliott, PHI
188. K Harrison Butker, KC
189. K Matt Prater, DET
190. K Dan Bailey, DAL
191. K Mason Crosby, GB
192. K Robbie Gould, SF
Week 1 Works
I'll always advocate waiting until the final two rounds to find your defense and kicker. If you can stream those positions with success throughout the season, you shouldn't commit anything more than you absolutely have to in your draft.
You can also consider Week 1 a streaming week and draft accordingly. Pick out the Week 1 matchups you like the best for defenses and kickers and target them. Commitment is not a factor.
Inside the Mind
Using the streaming philosophy, I landed on the Lions as my defense based on their Week 1 matchup at home against the New York Jets. They get the 49ers in San Francisco in Week 2, so this is nothing more than a one-week streamer.
Bailey should be more than that as one of the more reliable kickers on a team that should be good enough to provide him field-goal opportunities but not good enough to turn drives into TDs. I grabbed Watson as insurance for Kittle, since he's coming back from a shoulder injury.
Roster Review and Final Thoughts
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Projected Starting Lineup
QB: Philip Rivers
RB: Le'Veon Bell, Dion Lewis
WR: T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, Marquise Goodwin
TE: George Kittle
FLEX: Jamaal Williams/Mark Ingram (after Week 4)
D/ST: Lions
K: Dan Bailey
Bench
QB: None
RB: Bilal Powell, Austin Ekeler
WR: Nelson Agholor, Keelan Cole
TE: Benjamin Watson
Final Thoughts
It doesn't always happen this way, but I'm pleased with the balance in both the starting lineup and bench of this team. Other than Hilton returning to his WR1 form of the past, it doesn't feel like I need any of my players to overachieve to have a successful season. Ingram's return could provide a huge boost if he turns into a high-end RB2, but I have a safety net with Lewis and Williams just in case those RBs need to be rotated throughout the season.
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