NBA Players Waiting in the Shadows to Take over Their Franchises
Sometimes NBA stars come out of nowhere, taking the league by storm and asserting themselves as unstoppable forces. Other times, they're lurking just out of the spotlight, waiting to break out (either on the court or in terms of national recognition) while teasing those in the know with tantalizing glimpses of their eventual production.
We're focused on the latter here, attempting to identify the youthful contributors who could one day take over as the faces of their current franchises. They might not be stars at this stage of their careers, but the paths toward celestial status are crystal clear.
To be sure, these young men aren't currently their team's best player. Devin Booker, for example, is not on this list because he's already the leading standout on the Phoenix Suns, even if he's poised to make immense progress toward leading a quality team throughout the 2018-19 season. The players included must have a chance to become the face of the franchise in the next few years but can't be rookies; first-year contributors haven't been waiting in the shadows, after all.
These candidates aren't plentiful. Many organizations already have entrenched stars, and others don't yet have that shining ball of potential ready to be molded into the face of the franchise. But each of these five youngsters could get there if everything breaks right.
Lonzo Ball, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
1 of 5
Age: 20
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 10.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.8 blocks
Though the Los Angeles Lakers boast a wealth of intriguing young talents ready to take over when LeBron James either moves on to a different team, retires or declines enough (please, stop laughing) to allow for a different figurehead in purple and gold, Lonzo Ball stands above all the rest.
Yes, that may seem like a strange statement after the point guard struggled with his stroke throughout his rookie campaign, shooting only 36.0 percent from the field, 30.5 percent from downtown and 45.1 percent at the stripe. Kyle Kuzma already looks the part of a go-to scorer whose offensive repertoire can mitigate his defensive porosity. Brandon Ingram is an all-around talent who made clear strides throughout 2017-18, even if the overall numbers might not reflect his two-way value and upside.
But think about it this way: Ball was already a distinctly valuable presence even while throwing up historically putrid shooting figures. Devoid of a consistent jumper and greeted with sagging-back defenses on a regular basis, he still managed to make his team better through defense and facilitating wizardry.
What happens if the shot clicks? It did during his collegiate career (55.1/41.2/67.3 during his lone season at UCLA) and showed signs of progress throughout the inaugural NBA campaign; he shot 38.0 percent from outside the arc on 5.5 attempts per game during a 13-contest stretch near the end of 2017.
Ball can already squeeze the ball into tight spaces and improve his teammates while defenses are neglecting to cover him on the perimeter. His comrades shot 54.9 percent off his potential assists, but they could only muster a 47.6 field-goal percentage in general when he was on the floor, per PBPStats.com. Factoring out his feeds, they hit on just 45.2 percent of their looks when not receiving one of his setups.
This young floor general helps everyone, and that's happening in conjunction with his shooting stroke holding them back. Couple that with his preternatural defensive instincts and quick hands, and you have the formula for an extremely valuable contributor who's only going to keep getting better.
Jaylen Brown, SG/SF, Boston Celtics
2 of 5
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 13.6 PER, 56.2 TS%, 0.1 WS/48, 1.39 RPM, minus-4.3 TPA
The Boston Celtics should consider themselves lucky, even if their situation also leads to young standouts unnecessarily operating from the shadows—the relative shadows, at least. Most teams would do unspeakable things to have such a wide variety of up-and-comers without needing to sacrifice veteran leadership.
Who's the best player in Beantown right now?
Kyrie Irving and Al Horford will likely remain the most popular answers, but a healthy Gordon Hayward could burst into that conversation. So too could Jayson Tatum after a stellar set of postseason efforts while the C's were crippled by incessant injuries. That's already four legitimate candidates, and we haven't even touched upon Jaylen Brown (or, to a lesser extent, Terry Rozier).
Brown doesn't get the glitz and glamour associated with the others. He's not a decorated All-Star, and he doesn't yet have any All-NBA accolades. He's a bit older than Tatum and has moved well beyond his rookie season, which allowed for just enough staleness and let the Duke product gain the majority of the attention during his breakout season.
However, Brown has the all-around game necessary to jump quite a bit higher on the team's totem pole, possibly even taking over as the most dangerous contributor down the road. Already, he shined throughout the run to the Eastern Conference Finals, averaging an impressive 18.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks while slashing 46.6/39.3/64.0.
So for our second rhetorical question: What can't this 21-year-old do?
He's a dangerous sniper in off-ball situations who's capable of creating his own offense. He might not be a top-notch facilitator, but he also keeps his turnovers in check and avoids back-breaking mistakes. He can rebound from guard spots. He can defend multiple positions. He can depress any hint of ego and take on smaller roles for the betterment of the team.
Brown may be the least likely of our candidates to actually develop into the face of a franchise, but that's more a testament to the Celtics' many options than his own game.
Buddy Hield, SG, Sacramento Kings
3 of 5
Age: 24
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 13.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 16.1 PER, 55.7 TS%, 0.067 WS/48, minus-0.21 RPM, minus-8.0 TPA
Yes, this could easily be De'Aaron Fox, whose speed should make deciphering NBA defenses significantly easier now that he's entering his sophomore season. Marvin Bagley III is another strong candidate, though we've ruled out rookies from this conversation to focus on those who have already started producing in the Association; first-year players haven't exactly been "waiting" to emerge from the shadows.
But if Buddy Hield is allowed to blossom for the Sacramento Kings, emerging from the ambiguous glob of potential that is the Sactown roster, he could light up scoreboards again and again. Already, he's coming off a year in which he averaged 19.2 points per 36 minutes with a 55.7 true shooting percentage—numbers matched by only 32 qualified players during the 2017-18 campaign.
Because he's been mired in the Kings' perpetual rebuild since a trade sent him there midway through his rookie efforts with the New Orleans Pelicans, Hield hasn't enjoyed any semblance of national spotlight. The world has largely overlooked his developments as a marksman. But that should change now that he's established himself as a dangerous gunner capable of taking 5.1 triples per game and connecting at a 43.1 percent clip.
Only the following qualified men have hit those thresholds during or before an age-24 season:
- Leandro Barbosa
- Stephen Curry
- Buddy Hield
- Michael Redd
- Klay Thompson
Hield remains a lackluster defender, but his game has steadily gotten more and more complete. He's a far better passer than he was during his days with the Oklahoma Sooners, which should help justify an increased role among a crowded Sacramento rotation.
And if he starts playing upward of 30 minutes per game, his scoring—and, especially, his sharpshooting—prowess would necessitate national recognition.
Jamal Murray, PG/SG, Denver Nuggets
4 of 5
Age: 21
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 16.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 16.1 PER, 57.6 TS%, 0.103 WS/48, 0.29 RPM, minus-10.35 TPA
Nikola Jokic currently has a stranglehold over the "best player" title for the Denver Nuggets, but the nature of his contributions makes him a lightning rod for basketball debates. Jamal Murray's game, however, fits much cleaner into the traditional definition of superstardom, which could allow him to take over as the face of the franchise even if he doesn't surpass the dominant center in terms of sheer value added to the cause.
No, we're not overlooking Gary Harris either.
As a two-way stud on the wings, Harris is currently a more valuable contributor than Murray. But his efforts are predicated upon off-ball prowess and a willingness to assume tough defensive assignments, whereas Murray can take over as a deadly scorer who allows Denver to deviate from its pet schemes.
Everything in the Mile High City runs through Jokic, allowing the franchise to focus on finding complementary talents who thrive in spot-up and cutting scenarios. But if Murray can realize all his scoring potential, he'll see his usage rate skyrocket, setting the stage for playoff success when the Nuggets need a go-to bucket-getter and letting the front office set its sights on defensive bodies who can make this outfit a more balanced one.
During his sophomore season, Murray averaged 16.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists while connecting on 45.1 percent of his field-goal attempts, 37.8 percent of his triples and 90.5 percent of his freebies. And yet, it still felt as if the youngster was just scraping at the surface of his vast talent reserves. Once his pull-up jumpers begin falling—and they will, based on the confidence and form with which he shoots them, as well as the quality of looks he's able to generate—he could start threatening for scoring titles while leading one of the NBA's most potent offenses.
Again, we're not saying Murray's all-around game will be more valuable than Jokic's. His defense remains too porous for that. But the nature of his output, lending itself to big numbers and eye-catching highlight reels, will at least allow him to challenge for control of the face-of-the-franchise conversation if he continues on his current trajectory.
Dennis Smith Jr., PG, Dallas Mavericks
5 of 5
Age: 20
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 15.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 12.8 PER, 47.3 TS%, minus-0.017 WS/48, minus-3.09 RPM, minus-89.78 TPA
From a purely objective standpoint, this is a tough pick to justify after Dennis Smith Jr. submitted some horrid numbers during his rookie campaign with the Dallas Mavericks. Negative scores in RPM and TPA are one thing. So too is a PER below the league-average baseline that's always set at an even 15.
But earning negative win shares while playing more than 2,000 minutes? That's something only 33 players have ever done, and it's not exactly a group packed to the gills with standouts. Some of the biggest names include Rex Chapman, Joe Fulks, Brandon Ingram, Vernon Maxwell and Sidney Wicks. Just five men in the club made All-Star appearances at some other point in their careers: Joe Fulks (twice), Bob Harrison, Woody Sauldsberry and Sidney Wicks (four times).
Nevertheless, even staring in the face of that shoddy track record, we expect more from Smith.
After all, circumstance helps indicate why he was such a negative as a rookie. He was immediately thrown into the fire for a bottom-feeding team and asked to face the Western Conference gauntlet of point guards on a regular basis. Of course an overextended teenager was going to struggle immensely.
But Smith's athleticism hasn't gone anywhere. Nor have his offensive instincts and the shooting stroke that allowed him to slash 45.5/35.9/71.5 at NC State. And now that he has an ideal pick-and-roll partner (DeAndre Jordan) and a complementary ball-handler (Luka Doncic) set to remove some of the pressure he faced on a nightly basis, he should quickly make strides that work toward justifying the No. 9 pick Dallas spent on him during the 2017 NBA draft.
Judging a player off one season would be foolish, especially when the struggles are so easily explained and—to some extent, at least—should always have been expected.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
