Who's More Valuable Now, Carmelo Anthony or D-Wade?

When Dwyane Wade pulls the plug on his illustrious career, he'll become a lock for the Hall of Fame as soon as he's eligible. Given his three titles, eight All-NBA selections and overabundance of statistical accomplishments, he's a veritable shoo-in for induction regardless of what happens during the tail end of his time in the league. 

But while Basketball Reference gives the Miami Heat legend a 100 percent probability of enshrinement (No. 2 to LeBron James among active players and No. 20 all-time), the numbers don't work so strongly in Carmelo Anthony's favor. Without a championship to his credit and not quite matching the overwhelming volume of accomplishments accumulated by the man selected two picks later in the 2003 NBA draft, this 10-time All-Star has "only" a 98.18 percent shot at the Hall, leaving him behind eight active players and 61 total. 

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At this point in their crusades, denying their all-time standings would be foolish. They're both extreme talents who have enjoyed remarkable careers that will transcend generations, leading youngsters now wearing diapers to eventually read about their stories, study their stats and watch their many highlights in whatever medium is available once they've grown up and tapped into their passion for professional basketball. 

But history is history. It doesn't affect the future, and that's what we're concerned about now. The previous All-Star inclusions won't help them make an impact in 2018-19. Nor will prior MVP candidacies and rings earned in the past. 

All that matters during the 2018 offseason is what comes next, and that leaves plenty of question marks surrounding both icons. 

Ceilings

Though Wade only averaged 12.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.7 blocks per game after returning to the Heat midway through the 2017-18 campaign, doing so while slashing 40.9/22.0/74.5, he still provided some time-turning moments that reminded the world of his immense talent.

Take his showing in Game 2 of the first-round Eastern Conference clash with the Philadelphia 76ers as an example:

If that's not enough to sway you, how about what he did five nights later?

Wade's explosions aren't necessarily predicated upon athletic superiority at this stage of his distinguished NBA tenure, but he still needs physical advantages in order to put together those highlight reels. The pump fakes only work because defenders are still scared of him bursting by for an interior finish. The cuts still require quick jolts of speed. And if he exerts himself on offense, forcing the issue as a go-to scorer defying Father Time, that leaves less in the tank for the preventing end. 

In a sense, Wade's ceiling is now capped. He'll have one of those vintage performances every now and then, but even asking him to come off the pine in a minutes-limiting role will only do so much to elevate his level of play. 

That's not quite the case for Anthony.

After opting in and rejoining the Oklahoma City Thunder, he's not going to function as the do-everything offensive stud who once graced the New York Knicks roster (and the Denver Nuggets before that). That, in and of itself, limits the heights of his ceiling. But by accepting a role perfectly catered toward his talents, he could become one of the NBA's most useful role players and have a distinctly positive impact. 

Anthony, for all his ill-advised jab-stepping and ball-commandeering possessions, remains one of the Association's deadliest snipers. And working alongside Russell Westbrook while his defensive flaws are mitigated by the presences of Andre Roberson on the perimeter and Steven Adams protecting the hoop, he can thrive in an off-ball setting. 

During the 2016-17 campaign, Anthony's final go-round in the Big Apple, he scored 1.23 points per spot-up possession to slide into the 94th percentile. One year later, he boosted the Thunder by providing 1.02 points per spot-up possession, this time finishing in the 60th percentile. The first number is elite. The second is still respectable, and it comes without full buy-in to the schemes that would maximize his enduring talents. 

The elder version of Wade doesn't have that go-to skill in the modern NBA. He still doesn't boast three-point range and relies on too many difficult finishes to get his buckets. But Anthony could conceivably accept status as a catch-and-shoot sniper, thereby conserving more energy for the occasional transition attack and trying just a little bit harder on defense.

In today's spacing-is-everything world, that's quite helpful. 

Advantage: Anthony. 

Floors

Neither player was particularly valuable during the 2017-18 campaign, and old age typically takes no prisoners. When the bottom falls out, recovering can be difficult, even for legendary figures whose busts will soon populate the halls of Springfield, Massachusetts. 

Wade finished the year with a score of minus-1.6 in ESPN.com's real plus/minus, placing him at No. 49 among the 111 players qualified as shooting guards. Anthony's mark of minus-0.76 was slightly better but still left him at No. 45 among the league's 88 power forwards.

Veer over to NBA Math's total points added metric, and you see the opposite story emerge. Wade's score was bad, but it couldn't touch Anthony's, which was the most negative the league had to offer—the result of subpar play and extreme volume. 

These gentlemen were largely liabilities. They had their moments, to be sure. But the totality of their production was troubling. 

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When Wade is struggling, he drags down his team's production on both ends. The mid-range shots don't fall, but he keeps taking them—37.9 percent of his field-goal attempts in 2017-18 were two-point jumpers from at least 10 feet. And he has trouble generating whistles or maintaining defensive focus like he did throughout his prime years. Whether because of old habits or enduring ego, that doesn't stop him from still attempting to control the offensive flow; his 26.2 percent usage rate still sat at No. 25 among all qualified players. 

Anthony's issues tend to rear their ugly heads in more obvious fashion, though. 

Wade still moves around the court like he believes in himself. He can hold his own in on-ball defensive scenarios. His willingness to attack the hoop still lets him get easy points at the charity stripe. Anthony's plunging free-throw rate and woeful defense allow for no such luxuries. 

The forward has never been a bastion of defensive excellence throughout his professional career, and that's not changing as he moves into the twilight. His production has always stemmed almost solely from his offensive acumen, which means he can morph into an extreme liability when his shots aren't falling. 

Somewhat troublingly, the misses don't keep Anthony from firing away. 

No trend really emerges between his accuracy and penchant for volume shooting. But the correlation, if one even exists because the relationship is so weak, does lean toward him taking even fewer shots on the nights during which he's most accurate. He's unable to turn those occasional hot streaks into a useful rhythm but instead continues sporadically hoisting attempts. 

That's why the floor is lower. Not only does he fail to make an impact in other facets of the game—per Cleaning the Glass, he ranked in the 18th percentile for assist percentage and similarly failed to make even the 30th percentile for block percentage, steal percentage, rebounding on either end or foul-drawing ability—but he also displays no conscience when shooting the basketball.

That can often be a good thing for players at their peaks, enabling them to work their way out of cold spells, but it's not when the subject's true shooting percentage (50.3) falls well below the league average (55.6).

Perhaps we should also note Anthony's true shooting percentage hasn't topped the leaguewide mark since 2013-14. This likely isn't changing anytime soon. 

Advantage: Wade

Realities

Floors and ceilings are useful because they set baselines for production expectations. But only the realities matter. What good is the ceiling if reaching it is virtually impossible, whether due to situation or mentality? Why does the floor retain relevance when a player only bottoms out once every other month? 

Initially, that's not good news for Anthony. Though he has the requisite talent to become a tremendously impactful role player, that requires some shifts he's, as of yet, apparently unwilling to make. 

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Perhaps he's working through the last vestiges of his superstardom in Madison Square Garden, but he seems woefully unperturbed by his declining skill set. The pull quote that got the most publicity at the time was the glamorous, pithy one. ("Yeah, I'm not sacrificing no bench role. That's out of the question.") But that's not the most telling statement relayed by ESPN.com's Royce Young:

"I think the player that they wanted me to be and needed me to be was for the sake of this season. As far as being effective as that type of player, I don't think I can be effective as that type of player. I think I was willing to accept that challenge in that role, but I think I bring a little bit more to the game as far as being more knowledgeable and what I still can do as a basketball player.

"I became who I am by playing the way that I've played and establishing a style of play and a type of play throughout my career. So now it's about figuring out what is the best way to implement that game into something that we're trying to create, and it's not taking away nothing from Russell [Westbrook] or Paul [George] or anybody else, or myself per se. I think we just all have to figure out how we're going to play and what's the style of play and what's most effective in the way that we're going to play. I think that's something that we have to figure out."

Except we have figured it out. Anthony just doesn't like the answer because it means fewer shots and a more specialized role—something that might be even tougher to sell him on if Paul George departs the Thunder in free agency, leaving behind the perception of an offensive vacuum alongside Westbrook. 

Fortunately for the Syracuse product, this isn't necessarily a death knell in the competition. It's foreboding, indicative of larger variance in possible outcomes during the 2018-19 campaign. It displays a lack of self-awareness, which serves as an ever-underrated skill in the NBA. But it doesn't doom him. 

Ultimately, we're still talking about former stars who, even at their best, are now little more than above-average contributors. Celestial status is firmly rooted in the past, and Father Time won't loosen his grip anytime soon. 

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With that in mind, which player would you rather have? Who do you consider more valuable? 

The shooting guard without three-point range who can still find ways to contribute to quality teams but has limited upside that only manifests itself as actual production every once in a while, or the forward with an elite skill perfectly suited to the modern game who functions as a liability in other areas and has trouble accepting a role that will maximize his talents? 

Either choice is justifiable. Truly. But given that it's easier to change your mentality than a set-in-stone skill set paired with declining physical abilities, smart money—if only barely—should be on the man last seen trolling his critics after accepting a $27.9 million player option. 

Overall Advantage: Anthony by a hair.

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.

Unless otherwise indicated, all stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.