NBA Free-Agent Landscape Will Be Shaped by Those Who Have Leverage, and Use It
As the July 1 free-agent frenzy approaches, the undercurrent behind all the potential signings and trades is the same as it's always been.
It's about leverage.
And nobody understands that better than LeBron James.
In 2010, having been ousted from the playoffs again by the Boston Celtics, James had all the leverage. As they'd planned for years, James and two superstar friends, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, all hit the unrestricted free-agent market together. And as they'd planned for years, the path to teaming up in a glamour market with a legitimate chance to win multiple championships was as wide open as the lane is for James on a fast break.
In 2018, the landscape is different...and so is the leverage. Let's examine the most intriguing free-agent scenarios that will begin unfolding in the coming days and evaluate who has sway, how much and why.
LeBron James
"He always has the leverage," a league source told Bleacher Report on Thursday. "Period."
And while that's undoubtedly true, leverage comes in varying degrees. Unlike 2010, there is no clear path to a glamour market with multiple championship parades in his future. In the case of James potentially signing with the Lakers, there are multiple moving parts that are beyond his control.
First, there's the murky Kawhi Leonard scenario (more on him later). In order for Leonard to get to L.A., the Spurs have to send him there; and to this point, R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich have displayed no appetite for doing so.
Then, there's Paul George (more on him later, too). While there are strong indications, per a report by ESPN's Royce Young, that George ultimately will stay in Oklahoma City, he left his options open Thursday by declining his player option for 2018-19.
The landscape for James will change dramatically by midnight ET Friday, when he must decide whether to opt in for the 2018-19 season with the Cavs. As Mike Prada of SB Nation explained here, James actually narrows his free-agent options substantially by opting out. In that scenario, there are really only three teams in play: the Cavs (who have his Bird rights) and the Lakers and Sixers (the only two teams in the hunt for James that have the cap space to sign him outright).
If he opts in, James can "pull a CP3," meaning he could effectively try to force a trade to virtually any destination he wanted. This is the tactic Chris Paul used to get to Houston last summer.
Would James, a connoisseur of free-agent power plays, actually do something that would reduce his leverage? Only if he was comfortable with one of the three most likely outcomes.
In the opinion of a Western Conference executive who spoke with B/R on Thursday, the most likely scenario is as follows: James opts out, shifting the onus on the Lakers to somehow reel in Leonard and George. If Magic Johnson can pull off this monumental assist, James dons the purple and gold. If not, he stays in Cleveland on a one-year deal with a player option, then reassesses the landscape next summer.
"I feel LeBron's going to stay," the Western Conference executive said. "For one, he's moved once already. And two, he has so much control over the place. He runs the whole building and does what he wants."
As for the Sixers, they have the allure of both cap room and an attractive collection of young, proven talent in Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric—plus a coach James respects in Brett Brown. Is that enough to compel James to leave Cleveland a second time? We'll see. What we know for sure is that if James opts in, that means he likely isn't headed to Philly in a trade that would cost them a hefty haul of prized assets.
Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs
Leonard's level of discontent in San Antonio has been well documented, as has the Spurs' unwillingness to trade him—especially to a contending team in the West.
"In that situation, Kawhi holds all the cards," the Western Conference executive said. "He's got a team that doesn't know what it wants to do with him. They want to trade him to a team that's not that good, but the problem with that is, it's a very down draft in 2019. So any picks they could get won't be close to equal value."
Still, the Spurs aren't without leverage. Leonard goes nowhere until 2019 unless the Spurs agree to it. And as one league source told B/R, "They're not going to be bullied. The Spurs will make the move they deem best for them."
Holding onto Leonard until next February's trade deadline, however, may not be in San Antonio's best interests. By that point, "Everyone will know that they have to trade him," the Western Conference exec said.
So in terms of who has the upper hand between Leonard and the Spurs, it's a dead heat as we approach July 1. In February 2019, the advantage shifts to Leonard.
Chris Paul and the Rockets
Oh yeah, Paul is set to hit the free-agent market, too, but this was all part of his master plan to force his way to Houston via trade last year and then maximize his free-agent pay day this summer.
The Rockets pushed all their chips to the middle of the table when they teamed Paul with James Harden, and yet they still came up short against the Warriors. But they're not done.
According to multiple league sources, Paul has been much more focused on bringing talent to Houston than on his own free agency. For his part, Rockets GM Daryl Morey is following his gut (and the grapevine) and banking on the fact that Paul holds tremendous allure as a potential teammate for James.
During the draft, the Rockets offered numerous trade scenarios involving Ryan Anderson in the hopes of clearing his nearly $42 million off their books for the next two seasons. They found no takers, but their intent was clear.
"They think LeBron wants to play with CP3," the Western Conference exec said. "They did everything they could [to move Anderson], but nobody went for it."
In the end, who has the leverage here? The Rockets, because there's little chance of losing Paul in free agency, and the worst-case scenario—James joining Leonard and George in L.A.—is extremely complicated.
Paul George and the Thunder
Oklahoma City has the leverage here, at least in terms of being able to give George the longest contract for the most money. But, well, there are a lot of buts.
"He has leverage, too, because it would be devastating to the Thunder and [Russell Westbrook] if he left," a league source told B/R. "But I'm not sure he has leverage anywhere else besides the Lakers."
Also, Los Angeles is home—not only to George, but also to his agent, Aaron Mintz of CAA.
With the Lakers scenario, George is burdened by the same moving parts that James is facing. Is he willing to take the bold step of being the first star to commit to the Lakers, then hope for the best? George seemed more comfortable as the leading man in Indiana than as the second or third banana in OKC. But when every other star in the league is trying to team up with other stars, it would be a risky move—not to mention a costly one. George is eligible for a five-year, $176 million deal with the Thunder—$46 million more than the Lakers could offer him on a four-year deal.
So if the Lakers' dream-team scenario doesn't work out, George could follow James' lead and re-sign with the Thunder on a one-year deal with a player option and try again next summer.
DeMarcus Cousins and the Pelicans
As noted here, James has expressed a strong affinity for Cousins in the past. But hitting free agency after a season-ending Achilles injury has left Cousins with "no leverage in the marketplace whatsoever," an agent within the league said.
The Pelicans have the hammer here, but they also face a dilemma. With more than $85 million tied up in Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic, Solomon Hill and E'Twaun Moore, New Orleans would be extremely limited in its options to upgrade the roster if Cousins walked. It becomes a question of whether Cousins still believes he's worth max money in the wake of his injury, and if so, who is willing to give it to him.
DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers
Yes, this dance is happening again. Three years after Jordan agreed to a free-agent deal with the Mavericks and then reneged, Dallas is in the driver's seat to finally acquire the 29-year-old rim protector for real.
As the Clippers and Mavs await Jordan's decision on whether to opt in for next season, a league source familiar with the negotiations confirmed to B/R that the Mavs are pushing heavily to acquire him in a trade. Such a deal could be consummated prior to the opening of free agency at 12:01 a.m. ET Sunday if Jordan were to opt in.
For the Clippers, who fought tooth-and-nail to avoid losing Jordan for nothing in 2015 free agency, a trade would seem to be the preferable scenario. In that regard, Jordan holds all the cards. If Dallas is his preferred destination and the Clippers balk on sending him there, he could simply opt out and sign with the Mavs as a free agent. Thus, the Mavs have a pretty good hand, too.
Jordan's flip-flop on signing with the Mavs was one of the more bizarre free-agent scenarios in recent years, sending the NBA into a full-on emoji war. What's in store for free agency 2018? In the end, it will be a tale of who has the most power—and who knows how to use it.
Ken Berger covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @KBergNBA.
