2018 NBA Mock Draft: Analyzing Riskiest Prospects and 1st-Round Predictions
NBA teams aren't afraid of taking risks in the first round of the NBA draft.
Every year we see franchises go all-in on players in the first round despite inconsistencies on the court, past injury issues or other concerns that may arise in the evaluation process.
The 2018 NBA draft has its share of risky prospects, including a few who could go as high as the top 10 depending on which teams value them the most.
With June 21's selection process in sight, teams are putting together their final scouting reports on the available prospects, and the three mentioned below should be considered risks in their own regard.
2018 First-Round NBA Mock Draft
1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona
2. Sacramento Kings: Luka Doncic, SG/SF, Slovenia
3. Atlanta Hawks: Jaren Jackson Jr., PF, Michigan State
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
5. Dallas Mavericks: Marvin Bagley III, PF, Duke
6. Orlando Magic: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
7. Chicago Bulls: Wendell Carter, PF/C, Duke
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Brooklyn): Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
9. New York Knicks: Michael Porter, SF, Missouri
10. Philadelphia 76ers (from Los Angeles Lakers): Mikal Bridges, SG/SF, Villanova
11. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Michigan State
12. Los Angeles Clippers (from Detroit): Kevin Knox, SF/PF, Kentucky
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Robert Williams, PF/C, Texas A&M
14. Denver Nuggets: Lonnie Walker, SG, Miami
15. Washington Wizards: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky
16. Phoenix Suns (from Miami): Troy Brown, SG, Oregon
17. Milwaukee Bucks: Zhaire Smith, SG, Texas Tech
18. San Antonio Spurs: Keita Bates-Diop, SF, Ohio State
19. Atlanta Hawks (from Minnesota): Dzanan Musa, SF, Bosnia and Herzegovina
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Oklahoma City): Mitchell Robinson, C, United States
21. Utah Jazz: Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA
22. Chicago Bulls (from New Orleans): Chandler Hutchison, SF, Boise State
23. Indiana Pacers: Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Villanova
24. Portland Trailblazers: Jacob Evans, SF, Cincinnati
25. Los Angeles Lakers (from Cleveland): Kevin Huerter, SG, Maryland
26. Philadelphia 76ers: Khyri Thomas, SG, Creighton
27. Boston Celtics: Josh Okogie, SG, Georgia Tech
28. Golden State Warriors: Jalen Brunson, PG, Villanova
29. Brooklyn Nets (from Toronto): Anfernee Simons, SG/PG, Unattached
30. Atlanta Hawks (from Houston): Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
Riskiest Prospects
Michael Porter
If Michael Porter was judged on pure talent alone, he would be as close to a lock as possible to go in the top-five picks.
While he still might be selected in the top five, Porter has an endless amount of questions surrounding him after sitting out the majority of his freshman year at Missouri.
The sample size to evaluate Porter's skill set is limited to his high school career and Missouri's final two games of the 2017-18 season.
In the SEC tournament quarterfinal loss to Georgia, Porter contributed 12 points, but made just five of his 17 field goals.
Porter continued to look rusty in Missouri's NCAA men's basketball tournament defeat to Florida State, as he made four of his 12 field goals.
Because of his injury, Porter entered the draft process with the most work to do of the highly-coveted prospects, and teams should have a chance to dig deeper into his health in the weeks leading up to the draft.
According to his father, Michael Porter Sr., the one-and-done prospect hasn't released his medical records to NBA franchises yet, but he did undergo a medical with the Chicago Bulls, per Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post Dispatch via KMOX.
When the results of Chicago's physical become available to the rest of the league, we'll know more about Porter's status, but for now he could end up going as high as the top five and as low as the end of the lottery depending on the risk certain teams are willing to take.
Donte DiVincenzo
Villanova shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo is one of the hottest names in draft circles because of his performance at the NCAA tournament and the way he tested at the combine.
While recency bias is in DiVincenzo's favor, his collection of games at Villanova this season featured some inconsistency.
Before erupting for 31 points in the NCAA championship win over Michigan, DiVincenzo recorded back-to-back double-digit point outings once dating back to February 10.
In Villanova's three games at the Big East tournament, DiVincenzo totaled 19 points in 87 minutes while other stars on the team pushed the Wildcats to a trio of victories.
DiVincenzo shouldn't be blamed for cashing in on his stock while it's high by remaining in the NBA draft, as he's garnered plenty of buzz.
However, teams must be concerned about the bouts of scoring inconsistency the shooting guard turned in during Big East play.
DiVincenzo will be an intriguing prospect for teams at the back end of the first round, but wherever he lands, he needs to prove the ability to be an everyday scorer.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
This year's crop of prospects out of Kentucky is not as talented as the groups that have come out of John Calipari's program in recent years.
The 2017-18 edition of the Wildcats were a work in progress until they hit their stride during the second month of SEC play.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was one of the few Kentucky players who found another gear in February and March, as he reeled off 10 straight double-digit point performances.
However, Gilgeous-Alexander displayed some trouble adjusting to the collegiate level, as his point totals fluctuated in November, December and January.
With two more established point guard prospects in the talent pool in Trae Young and Collin Sexton, Gilgeous-Alexander could experience a drop in the first round, and he could end up out of the lottery picks depending on the needs of other teams.
There will be a team willing to take a risk on Gilgeous-Alexander because he is such a raw one-and-done prospect with natural ability, but there are some players more suited for the teams sitting in the final few picks of the lottery, which ends with the Denver Nuggets at No. 14.
Falling to a team with a veteran presence at point guard, like Washington, might not be a terrible thing for Gilgeous-Alexander, as he looks to improve his game before he attempts to take a step up to superstardom.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
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