The Cleveland Cavaliers will go for their first win of the 2018 NBA Finals back at Quicken Loans Arena on Wednesday when they host the Golden State Warriors as home underdogs at the sportsbooks.
The Cavs are hoping a change of scenery will help them get back into the series after the NBA champion Warriors rolled to a 122-103 victory as 11.5-point favorites in Game 2.
NBA point spread: The Warriors opened as five-point favorites; the total is at 217, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 111.2-102.8, Warriors (NBA picks on every game)
Why the Warriors can cover the spread
Golden State bounced back from a scare in the series opener by dominating Cleveland when it mattered most in Game 2, the second and fourth quarters.
The Warriors outscored the Cavaliers by a combined 18 points in closing strong before the intermission and at the end of the game to reward their backers with an easy cover.
The Warriors improved to 9-1 straight up and 7-2-1 against the spread in the past 10 meetings, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, and Stephen Curry is proving himself as a difference-maker and the NBA Finals MVP favorite after hitting a record nine three-pointers.
Why the Cavaliers can cover the spread
Cleveland has won eight straight home games this postseason, covering the spread in each of the last four, including all three versus the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.
In fact, the lone home loss for the Cavaliers in the playoffs took place in Game 1 of the first round against the Indiana Pacers.
The Cavaliers will be playing with desperation in this spot obviously knowing that no NBA team has rallied back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series, and LeBron James will not want to be swept in the championship round for the second time in his career.
Last year, Cleveland lost 118-113 in Game 3 before routing Golden State 137-116 in Game 4 to avoid the sweep.
Smart betting pick
The Cavaliers nearly pulled off a monster upset in Game 1 and looked good at times in Game 2. They are 4-3 SU and ATS in the past seven home meetings with the Warriors, which is a valuable trend worth betting on in this matchup.
Take Cleveland to cover.
NBA betting trends
The total has gone under in nine of Golden State's last 12 games.
Golden State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games against Cleveland.
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home.
All NBA odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.