Predicting the Best NBA Free-Agency Bargain at Each Position
The goal of NBA free agency isn't just to land the best players.
That's a large part of it, to be sure. Everyone wants to get their hands on LeBron James, as well as the other top contributors on the open market once the world's best basketballer makes his own decision. Talent does help win games, after all.
But cost-effectiveness is also key. Without finding bargains who are surefire candidates to outproduce their newly inked salaries, you can't construct a championship-caliber team under the constraints of the omnipresent salary cap and luxury-tax threshold. Good luck identifying a single organization that managed to lift up the Larry O'Brien Trophy without at least one bargain on the books.
This year's class will produce a strong value—at least one, really—at every single position. And it's our job to get you on board early, evaluating each player's likelihood of outdoing the expectations to determine the best candidates at each spot in a traditional lineup.
These players aren't stars. They're just the types of values you can find outside the first few tiers of the free-agency class who'll boost your chances of putting together a cohesive rotation.
Point Guard: Mario Chalmers
1 of 5
Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 32
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 7.7 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 10.4 PER, minus-75.86 TPA, minus-0.11 RPM
Mario Chalmers' return from a one-year stint overseas was filled with struggles. But even as he failed to find his shooting stroke and was tasked with too many responsibilities for an injury-riddled Memphis Grizzlies outfit, his defensive chops prevented his season from morphing into a cataclysmic disaster.
Not only did the Grizz allow 4.9 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor—trailing only the differentials earned by Mike Conley (minus-5.9), Brandan Wright (minus-11.8) and Vince Hunter (minus-15.2), who combined to play just over half as many minutes as Chalmers logged—but this also wasn't a fluke created by fortuitous lineup placement. ESPN.com's defensive real plus/minus gave the floor general a distinctly positive score, leaving him behind only 10 fellow point guards.
That preventing ability, stemming from his quick hands and intuitive understanding of positioning within the half-court set, gives Chalmers a solid floor and makes him a safer purchase on the open market, especially since his offensive woes will inevitably drive down his price. But his shooting should also experience a regression to the mean during his second season back stateside.
Prior to 2017-18, Chalmers had slashed 42.1/35.8/78.6 throughout his NBA career. This season's 37.9/27.7/85.5 falls well short, but the final number—representing his enduring ability at the stripe—should give hope of a significant bounce-back. And if he can regain his form from beyond the arc, which is far more likely when not operating in Beale Street's injury-created offensive vacuum, the rest of his game should follow suit.
Honorable Mentions: Devin Harris, Ty Lawson, Fred VanVleet
Shooting Guard: Wayne Ellington
2 of 5
Team: Miami Heat
Age: 30
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.1 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 12.5 PER, 0.0 TPA, minus-0.31 RPM
Wayne Ellington has developed his catch-and-shoot game—as well as his physical fitness—enough that he should be able to thrive in any scheme. So long as he's tasked with running around the court in a ceaseless attempt to extricate himself from a defense's clutches, he'll be able to rise and fire over even the tightest coverages.
"It's at the top of the list," the sniper stated about being in the best shape of his career in late January, per the Miami Herald's Andre C. Fernandez. "Obviously, getting shots up and getting reps is a big part of it but my conditioning is right there with it. If I'm not able to continue to move and be in top condition to wear guys out and continue to run and get guys tired I won't be able to get those looks and make those types of shots."
Among the 105 players this postseason who averaged at least 20 minutes per game, Danny Green was the lone man who maintained a higher average speed than Ellington. But unlike his San Antonio Spurs counterpart, this Miami Heat wing was significantly faster on the offensive end—exactly what you'd expect after watching him operate in head coach Erik Spoelstra's schemes.
He had to control himself a bit more during the long grind of the regular season, but that's understandable. He still landed in the 77th percentile as a spot-up shooter and the 87th percentile coming off screens (while finishing near the top of the class in frequency).
Though Ellington might not have a sterling reputation that allows for household-name status, he's become one of the league's deadliest off-ball shooting threats.
Honorable Mentions: Joe Harris, Mario Hezonja, David Nwaba
Small Forward: Glenn Robinson III
3 of 5
Team: Indiana Pacers
Age: 24
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 4.1 points, 1.6 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.6 steals
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 10.8 PER, minus-12.16 TPA, minus-1.05 RPM
Injured during an intrasquad scrimmage late in the 2017 offseason, Glenn Robinson III lost any and all momentum he possessed heading into the 2017-18 campaign. After he went under the knife to repair his ankle, he wasn't able to make his season debut until a Feb. 23 contest against the Atlanta Hawks.
By that point, it was too late. Though Robinson was supposed to become an integral offensive piece for the Indiana Pacers, they'd already shattered expectations and earned a distinct shot at home-court advantage in the playoffs' opening round. He couldn't break into the established rotation enough to earn more than 14.7 minutes per game in his 23 appearances, and he spent the vast majority of the first-round loss watching from the bench.
But Robinson is still only 24 years old, and his skill set hasn't been swallowed up. As Mark Montieth explained for Pacers.com at the end of the year, he needs minutes to maximize those extant talents:
"One could argue that a healthy Robinson could have contributed as much as [Bojan] Bogdanovic did. Bogdanovic was signed to provide 3-point shooting, but over the past three seasons, Robinson has the better 3-point percentage of the two. Robinson also is more athletic, and therefore at least the equal of the taller Bogdanovic as a defender and rebounder.
"The weaknesses in Robinson's game—court awareness, ballhandling, consistency—need consistent playing time to resolve. And while he's a favorite in and out of the locker room for his polite demeanor and positive, team-first #OverlyDedicated attitude amid all circumstances, he might be better served playing for another team, even a lesser one, that allows him more freedom and opportunity."
Injuries stealing away his opportunities have made Robinson an unproven commodity, which sets the stage for him to become a massive bargain. He's still a risky investment, but coming off the disabled list to shoot 41.2 percent from beyond the arc is a great first sign—an indication he's still just waiting for the right chance.
Honorable Mentions: Luke Babbitt, James Ennis III, LeBron James (yes, the max salary is a massive bargain)
Power Forward: Jerami Grant
4 of 5
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
Age: 24
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 8.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.0 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 16.2 PER, minus-19.9 TPA, minus-0.84 RPM
Jerami Grant's perimeter shot might've disappeared during his first full season with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but suitors shouldn't let that dissuade them. He can become a three-and-D power forward—a mold coveted in today's NBA, which prioritizes spacing from all five positions and switchiness on the preventing end.
During the 2016-17 campaign, Grant connected on 37.7 percent of his deep attempts while taking 1.5 per game after an early-season trade sent him from the Philadelphia 76ers to OKC. Everything seemed to click. His stroke became more effortless, and he capitalized on open looks enough that he started drawing legitimate defensive attention.
But that changed in 2017-18, and the declines bled over into other portions of his game. Though he was still willing to sacrifice his body (only 14 players drew more charges per contest while appearing at least 40 times) and possessed the dual ability to protect the rim and switch onto perimeter stalwarts, he fell prey to more attention lapses. The confidence that previously lifted him just wasn't always there.
That doesn't mean it's gone, never again to be recovered.
We know Grant can knock down triples in a catch-and-shoot setting. We know he can handle the ball on the perimeter, even if OKC rarely gave him the opportunity to do so. We know he can function as a versatile and effective defensive presence.
Now he just needs to mesh all the skills together into a well-rounded package. Though Grant isn't a guaranteed free-agent bargain, precious few players on this portion of the open-market totem pole possess this type of upside.
Honorable Mentions: Trevor Booker, Montrezl Harrell, Luc Mbah a Moute
Center: Nerlens Noel
5 of 5
Team: Dallas Mavericks
Age: 24
Type of Free Agency: Unrestricted
2017-18 Per-Game Stats: 4.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.7 blocks
2017-18 Advanced Metrics: 16.2 PER, 9.4 TPA, minus-0.74 RPM
If ever a player needed a fresh start with a different organization...
When the Dallas Mavericks sent Justin Anderson, Andrew Bogut and a second-round draft pick to the Philadelphia 76ers for Nerlens Noel's services midway through the 2016-17 campaign, they had no idea just how much drama would follow. He finished up that season exerting effort on the defensive end and becoming an infectious rim-runner whose mere presence compelled his teammates to throw more lobs, but then his contract status took center stage.
Since then, the headlines have taken a distinct turn away from his on-court merits:
- He turned down a four-year, $70 million extension, and the gamble backfired, leading him to play out 2017-18 on the Mavericks' qualifying offer so he could become an unrestricted free agent this summer.
- He needed surgery on his thumb, and Dallas owner Mark Cuban indicated it was Noel's decision to go under the knife, not the team's.
- He received a five-game suspension for violating the league's anti-drug policy.
- He ate a hot dog.
"I most definitely don't regret anything. I'm not nervous because I know my abilities," he told Bleacher Report's Yaron Weitzman back in December, referring specifically to the financial decisions. "I know what I'm capable of. I know what I can get on the court any time, day or night, and do. It's simply getting the opportunity to show it."
But does the basketball-watching world remember his abilities? Can it parse through his meager 30 appearances for the Mavs, during which he played only 15.7 minutes per game, and remember his high-flying habits and adroitness on the defensive end?
The 24-year-old can still become an impact player if he finds himself in the right location. He just needs a chance to bring the focus back to his on-court abilities.
Honorable Mentions: Channing Frye, Alex Len, Greg Monroe
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com.
