Lonzo Ball and the NBA Rookies Best Suited for a Sophomore Leap Next Season
If you were in the conversation for Rookie of the Year and/or redefined our expectations for a freshman player's production, you've already broken out. Ben Simmons led his team to a playoff series win. So did Donovan Mitchell.
Jayson Tatum's Boston Celtics are still playing because he came into the league more polished than anyone could have imagined and seemingly matured another five years over the course of his brilliant rookie season.
Those three are unquestionable stars, so they don't qualify.
Lonzo Ball is the cutoff—a perfect mixture of obvious potential and equally conspicuous warts. His game is imperfect, but because of the flashes he showed as a rookie, and because of the likelihood that his team situation will improve, he's the type of talent we're looking for.
He and a few other intriguing rookies are in line for a leap.
Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers
1 of 5
2017-18 Stats: 10.2 points, 7.2 assists, 6.9 rebounds, 44.4 TS%
2018-19 Projection: 14.3 points, 8.9 assists, 7.1 rebounds, 48.9 TS%
Lonzo Ball's scoring efficiency gets a lot of attention, and it is absolutely a concern.
He had one solid month from long range, hitting 37.7 percent of his treys in December. In every other full month he played (Ball logged just seven total games in January and February), he was below 30 percent. Throw in some serious issues finishing at the rim (49.4 percent within three feet; league average was 65.8 percent), and it's difficult to imagine the Los Angeles Lakers point guard ever becoming a good bang-for-the-buck scorer.
Everything else about Ball's game will make up for it.
In fact, all the other assets Ball brings—distribution, rebounding, defensive potential, smarts—already produced a helpful first year. The Lakers were better when he was on the floor, which is something you almost never see in the statistical profile of a big-minute rookie on a bad team.
Ball ranked third among point guards in defensive real plus-minus as a rookie. That's a lofty spot you might find anomalous, but his length and anticipation are real tools. There's a good chance Ball is in line to rank among the defensive leaders at the position for a long time.
As a natural facilitator, Ball figures to benefit more than anyone if the Lakers hit on their big free-agent swings. Scoring stars who know how to run lanes in transition, look for the ball in the tightest of windows and finish setups should unlock a whole new level of passing wizardry from Ball. And if L.A.'s new additions (whomever they might be) take defensive scrutiny away from Ball, that could lead to more efficient scoring as well.
There's a lot to like about Ball's second-year prospects.
Josh Jackson, Phoenix Suns
2 of 5
2017-18 Stats: 13.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 48.0 TS%
2018-19 Projection: 17.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 51.5 TS%
Second among rookies in scoring average after the All-Star break, Josh Jackson quietly rebounded from a dreadful opening stretch to his NBA career.
Funky shooting form and too many rushed attempts made Jackson one of the most damaging offensive players in the league. Of the 73 players to attempt at least 600 shots before the break, he ranked dead last with an effective field-goal percentage of 44.2 percent.
Working through those struggles and closing on an upswing—Jackson's effective field-goal percentage was 47.5 percent in March—shows resiliency.
"I think I've been doing a lot better reading the defense," Jackson told Robert Gundran of ArizonaSports.com. "In the beginning of the year, I was too fast-paced. I tried to force things too much and took shots I shouldn't have."
We got spoiled this year. Several rookies blew up immediately and carried their teams. That's not normal.
Jackson's first-year experience was more typical, defined by physical and mental struggles while toiling for a crummy team that doesn't have the talent to ease the burden on the lottery-plucked kid. There were whole write-ups done on how the Suns' roster made life difficult for the 6'8" wing.
Jackson got better down the stretch, has the body to become a good wing defender and will benefit as the rest of the Suns improve along with him.
Dennis Smith Jr., Dallas Mavericks
3 of 5
2017-18 Stats: 15.2 points, 5.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 47.3 TS%
2018-19 Projection: 19.6 points, 6.8 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 52.8 TS%
If the full faith* of the Dallas Mavericks means anything, Dennis Smith Jr. is going to be good.
Head coach Rick Carlisle heaped a ton on the ninth overall pick's plate this past season, putting the ball in the rookie's hands and turning him loose to a historically significant degree.
Only six other rookies join Smith in playing at least 2,000 minutes with a usage percentage of 28.9 percent or higher: Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson, Glenn Robinson, Ben Gordon, Ron Harper and Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell is a case all his own, and Jordan is Jordan, but everyone else on that list went on to decade-plus careers littered with All-Star berths, playoff runs and even rings. That doesn't mean Smith is destined for all that, but it makes it easy to project major improvement in his second season.
Smith is a nuclear athlete who thrives in transition, gets downhill quickly in a pick-and-roll and has no compunction about shooting threes off the dribble. He didn't make many of those shots, hitting just 27.4 percent of his 2.7 pull-up triples per game. But Smith drained 37.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot treys, which bodes well. As he gets more comfortable, don't be surprised if he starts rising up and drilling deep ones a la Damian Lillard.
If defenses have to chase Smith 25 feet from the bucket, he's going to bolt into the lane a lot. And we know what he can do when he has a runway.
A season of high-usage growing pains is about to pay dividends.
*Please do not suggest the Mavs played Smith so much because his "learning experience" was the perfect cover for a tank. We're trying to be positive.
Lauri Markkanen, Chicago Bulls
4 of 5
2017-18 Stats: 15.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 55.2 TS%
2018-19 Projection: 18.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 58.4 TS%
Built to thrive in the modern NBA, Lauri Markkanen's path to stardom is clear.
Only LeBron James and Dario Saric matched Markkanen's 2017-18 totals of at least 1,033 points, 508 rebounds and 145 made threes. No rookie in league history has ever accumulated those numbers.
Markkanen's 145 made triples are, by far, the most ever by a rookie 6'10" or taller, but he projects as so much more than a token floor-stretching threat. The rebounds point to his activity, and you can see the potential for an off-the-dribble game that will open up endless scoring possibilities for him and his teammates. Nobody's saying the Finnisher is as lithe and dextrous with the ball in a pump-and-go situation as Kristaps Porzingis, but you can see some resemblances in how they attack closeouts.
For what it's worth, Markkanen scored a career-high 33 points and outplayed Porzingis—often defending him one-on-one—in Chicago's overtime win against the Knicks on Jan. 10.
At 36.2 percent on the year from deep (39 percent after the break), Markkanen could show zero improvement as a shooter and still feature as a devastating offensive weapon. But he has enough athleticism and confidence to make a breakout almost inevitable.
If Markkanen can defend centers adequately and develop a post game that'll punish smaller guards on switches, the Bulls will have one of the most dangerous bigs in the league.
"I'm much more excited about next year than this year," Markkanen told Vincent Goodwill of NBC Sports Chicago. "[I want to be] more complete; do everything better, rebound, make the right play, get stronger so I can bring new stuff to my game and go from there."
Watch out.
Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia 76ers
5 of 5
2017-18 Stats: 7.1 points, 3.8 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 41.6 TS%
2018-19 Projection: 14.4 points, 5.2 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 50.4 TS%
Markelle Fultz isn't broken.
Though a bizarre and as yet mostly unsolved combination of physical injury and psychological blockage abducted the top overall pick's jump shot, we saw enough in a truncated rookie year to keep hope kindled.
Fultz was electric with the ball in his hands, one of those rare players who seems to move faster than everyone else without exerting full effort. Even if Fultz never rediscovers the stroke that produced a 41.3 percent conversion rate from deep in college (on a respectable five attempts per game), he's going to be a nightmare in transition and a dangerous creator in the half court.
With per-36-minute averages of 14.2 points, 7.5 assists and 6.1 rebounds, Fultz showed he could get numbers even when defenses knew he wasn't going to shoot. We're admittedly ignoring this year's putrid scoring efficiency to reach this conclusion, but it sure seems like the addition of even a moderately threatening outside shot would unlock a player still capable of justifying the hype. Remember, Philly posted a positive net rating when Fultz played.
That's something.
The Sixers badly need a secondary creator who can attack, push the pace and bend defenses with drives and cuts. Fultz can be that player regardless, even if he never figures his shot out.
It's telling that head coach Brett Brown got emotional when announcing Fultz's late-season return. And the fact that none of his teammates did anything but stand up for him when questioned about his absence underscores something important. That support indicates Fultz really was fighting something difficult, and that he battled gamely, putting in the work that earned the respect of those around him.
Consider this a bet that he will iron out that jumper, and that, as a result, he'll get back on a track to stardom.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass or NBA.com unless otherwise specified.
