After Draft and Free Agency, Prescott and Cowboys Passing Game Face Questions

By all indications, Dak Prescott is heading into what's easily the most important season of his young career.

The 2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is coming off a disappointing 2017 season in which his numbers dropped off substantially and the Cowboys missed the playoffs. With reports swirling that the Cowboys could extend Prescott after the season, the 24-year-old has tens of millions of reasons to rebound this year.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys haven't put Prescott in a position to bounce back. In fact, there are more questions than ever about the passing game.

As Clarence E. Hill Jr. of the Star-Telegram reported, Cowboys vice president Stephen Jones fully expects to sign Prescott to a whopper of a contract extension—possibly as soon as next offseason.

"We all see what some of the other guys are who aren't Aaron Rodgers, who aren't Matt Ryan [are getting paid]," Jones said. "He's going to do well. We certainly know that's going to happen. We've got that planned in our budgeting for the salary cap."

That isn't the only expectation Jones has, though.

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"I just want Dak to go out and be MVP this year of the NFL," Jones said. "That's what I want. Then, we'll deal with that."

That first expectation is reasonable. Prescott took the NFL by storm two years ago, passing for 3,667 yards and 23 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Dallas won 13 games and an NFC East title.

But that second expectation is wishful thinking.

Prescott's numbers fell off in his second season. His yards per attempt dropped by over a yard, from 8.0 to 6.8. His completion percentage dropped by almost 5 percentage points, from 67.8 to 62.9. He threw fewer touchdown passes (22) and many more interceptions (13).

There were reasons for that: natural regression after an amazing first season; the absence of star tailback Ezekiel Elliott for six games; a drop-off in production from No. 1 wideout Dez Bryant.

But Prescott said last year's struggles are behind him, per Jon Machota of the Dallas News. And like Jones, he has Texas-sized goals for the upcoming campaign.

"It's all about chasing [Super Bowl] No. 6," he said. "We have the right guys. We're excited. I promise you, 2018 is going to be a great year."

Again, the signal-caller is half-right. A Super Bowl trip is the goal every year. Anything less is considered failure in Dallas. But the idea that Dallas has the "right guys" in the passing game to make that run to Atlanta is, once more, wishful thinking.

Yes, Elliott will be back in 2018. And there's no reason to think he won't once again be one of the most productive rushers in the NFL. His per-game average of 98.3 yards a contest equated to 1,573 rushing yards over a full 16-game slate.

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But after Bryant's release in the offseason and the unexpected retirement of tight end Jason Witten, the Dallas passing game is one big question mark.

The Cowboys brought in former first-round pick Tavon Austin in a draft-day trade with the Los Angeles Rams. Jones has big plans for the eighth overall pick from 2013.

"I think we can get him the ball—I don't want to speak for Jason [Garrett], but I think we can get him the ball a dozen, 20, two dozen times a game. And then you throw the return game on top of it, and I think it's somebody we can really utilize," Jones said.

We've now crossed over from wishful thinking to pipe-dream territory.

Entering the NFL, Austin was touted as just what Jones envisions: an offensive Swiss army knife who can hurt opposing defenses in several ways. A threat to score every time he touches the ball.

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But in five seasons, Austin has never caught even 60 passes. His career best in receiving yards is 509. The dangerous vertical threat has averaged a measly 8.7 yards per catch. And Tavon Austin has the same number of seasons with 1,000 total yards as "Stone Cold" Steve Austin.

There is no chance the 5'8" Austin is suddenly going to become a No. 1 receiver. Or a No. 2 receiver.

Dallas added a wide receiver in the third round of this year's draft, selecting Michael Gallup of Colorado State. The 6'1", 205-pounder isn't especially big. Or fast. But while Gallup isn't great at any one thing, he's pretty good in most areas, and Bleacher Report's Marcus Mosher expects that well-rounded skill set to equate to an early impact.

"Gallup may not be a No. 1 receiver in the NFL," Mosher wrote, "but he has the potential to be a high-end No. 2 receiver in the league and may be able to do so right away. Gallup should be able to compete for snaps as a rookie, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he ends up being the best receiver on the roster by the end of 2018."

Gallup is talented, and he was the best wideout available at that point in the draft. But he's not a player who is going to draw double-teams or consistently dominate one-on-one battles.

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And yet again, the idea that Gallup is going to make a big first-year impact is an optimistic one. For every Odell Beckham Jr. who lights up the pros as a rookie, there's a Corey Coleman, Kevin White, Corey Davis or John Ross who doesn't.

All four of those receivers were Day 1 picks. All four were taken in the last few years. None have done much in the NFL, in large part due to injuries.

It doesn't get better after that. Allen Hurns topped 1,000 yards in Jacksonville in 2015, but he combined for 961 over the past two seasons in large part due to numerous injuries. Deonte Thompson had a career year in 2017, but he still finished with only 38 grabs for 555 yards on two teams.

Holdover Terrance Williams is, well, Terrance Williams. Cole Beasley may be the most reliable receiver on the roster, and he's a 5'8" jitterbug whose numbers fell off a cliff in 2017.

The defensive game plan to beat Prescott and the Cowboys is hardly a state secret. Load up the box to slow Elliott, single-cover the receivers and make Dallas (and Prescott) beat you through the air. There isn't a receiver on the Cowboys roster who is going to make opponents stray from that strategy.

Prescott is a mobile, accurate quarterback playing behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines. But he's not a maestro of improvisation—a la Russell Wilson or Tony Romo—who can pull big plays from thin air. He needs either precisely run routes that take advantage of his accuracy or the ability to win 50-50 battles the way Bryant used to.

Right now, Prescott's best bet is a kid whose next NFL game will be his first.

Barring a collapse, Prescott is going to get his big payday. Talented young quarterbacks get massive contracts. He's the steal of the 2016 draft—the fourth-rounder who came from nowhere to lead America's Team to the playoffs and help usher Romo into the broadcast booth.

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America thanks him. It turns out Romo is great at the whole TV thing.

But he's not a magician. If Prescott has the ability to turn good receivers into superstars and average wideouts into good ones, we haven't seen it yet. Like most quarterbacks, he needs help from the skill players around him.

He doesn't have enough.

Prescott isn't going to get his wish of guiding Dallas to the Super Bowl this year. The Cowboys aren't the best team in their own division, much less the NFC. Jones isn't going to see Prescott win MVP.

The latter would be icing. The former is the cake. Every year in Dallas, the mantra is four simple words: Super Bowl or bust.

In 2018, it's going to be bust. Failure.

Because that's the position Jones and the front office have put Prescott in.

But hey, at least that will save the annually cap-strapped Cowboys a few bucks on Prescott's extension.

Silver linings, right?