DeAndre Ayton or Marvin Bagley at 1? Projections After 2018 NBA Draft Lottery
The Phoenix Suns won the NBA draft lottery Tuesday and will pick No. 1 overall on June 21, giving them unlimited choices in an extremely deep draft. However, there is no certainty at the top of this class.
While past drafts featured clear No. 1 prospects like Ben Simmons or Anthony Davis, this year includes a variety of top players who could all be perennial All-Stars at the next level.
It will come down to the teams deciding who is the best fit and who will eventually live up to expectations.
Here is a look at draft predictions following the lottery as well as a breakdown for the best options at No. 1.
NBA Draft Lottery Projections
1. Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona
2. Sacramento Kings: Luke Doncic, SG, Slovenia
3. Atlanta Hawks: Marvin Bagley III, C, Duke
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr., PF, Michigan State
5. Dallas Mavericks: Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
6. Orlando Magic: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
7. Chicago Bulls: Michael Porter Jr., SF, Missouri
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets): Wendell Carter Jr., PF, Duke
9. New York Knicks: Miles Bridges, SF, Michigan State
10. Philadelphia 76ers (via Lakers): Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova
11. Charlotte Hornets: Kevin Knox, SF, Kentucky
12. Los Angeles Clippers (via Pistons): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky
13. Los Angeles Clippers: Zhaire Smith, SF, Texas Tech
14. Denver Nuggets: Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
Who Will Go No. 1?
The Case for Deandre Ayton
While prospects can improve, you can't teach what Deandre Ayton brings to the table.
At 7'1", 250 pounds, the center was a force at the college level and won't be any easy to match up against in the NBA. He averaged 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds per game during his freshman season, often just bullying his opponents in the post.
Per Hoop Math, Ayton shot 82.1 percent at the rim this season, well ahead of the 59.7 percent national average. Fellow top prospect Jaren Jackson made just 65.4 percent at the rim this season, while even Anthony Davis has only made 71.9 percent of shots inside three feet in his NBA career, per Basketball Reference.
Ayton is a dominant inside presence who is a vacuum on the boards while also averaging a respectable 1.9 blocks per game on the defensive end.
Meanwhile, he is more than just an old-school center. The top prospect shot 34.3 percent from three-point range and is still developing a wider offensive game.
Although there are some question marks about his consistency, especially on the defensive end, Ayton is a physically imposing presence that can't be ignored.
The Case for Marvin Bagley III
Marvin Bagley III (6'11", 234 lbs.) isn't quite as big as Ayton and has a shorter wingspan, but he has more than enough size to make the leap to the NBA.
More importantly, the Duke product brings more to the table as a versatile scorer with the agility to handle the fast-paced style of the league.
While Bagley can score inside without issue, he also knocked down 39.7 percent of shots from three-point range, shooting 61.4 percent from the field overall. This helped him average 21 points per game, third in the nation among power-conference players.
His athleticism and lateral quickness also give him the tools to be an elite defender both inside and on the perimeter, a necessity in today's NBA. Even if he wasn't much of a shot-blocking threat during his freshman season, he can still make an impact throughout his career on that end of the court.
Considering he reclassified from the 2018 college class and is seven months younger than Ayton, there is also reason to believe he has even more room to grow as a player.
This upside makes Bagley difficult to pass up.
The Case for Luka Doncic
While fans often feel more comfortable with players they have seen, Luka Doncic is more than worth the hype.
The 6'8" guard is not just holding his own against much older competition at Real Madrid, he has been one of the best players in Liga ACB this season. His team finished the regular season in first place with a 26-3 record, and Doncic led the squad in points and assists per game while ranking second in rebounds per game.
Combining his play in Liga ACB and EuroLeague, the guard is averaging 14.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists.
For reference, Kristaps Porzingis averaged 11.0 points and 4.6 rebounds per game in the same league before bursting onto the scene with 14.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in his rookie season with the Knicks.
ESPN's Kevin Pelton projects European statistics to production in the NBA, and Doncic's is the highest projection on record, via Mina Kimes of ESPN.
Doncic is a versatile player who can fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways, with great awareness to seemingly always make the right decision on the court. He is a rare prospect that could make some teams regret passing on him.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
