NBA Free Agency: Negotiating Boogie Cousins and the Toughest Contract Decisions
There are two sides to every NBA contract negotiation, and you're about to hear both.
Competing agendas, bluffing, straight talk that'll hurt feelings—it's all part of sorting out a player's value in free agency. Sometimes, it gets personal.
We're looking at situations where the player and his incumbent team have interest in continuing the partnership but also where, perhaps, both sides are a little unsure of one another. The group will include restricted and unrestricted free agents.
We've tried to isolate negotiations where both sides—player and team—have defensible cases. We're also ducking scenarios where the team would immediately pay whatever it could to keep the player. That'll rule out LeBron James, Paul George, Kevin Durant and other similar situations. There's no back-and-forth there, and the only intrigue is whether the player will take the money or not. It's more interesting when the demands are farther apart and the team could conceivably walk away from the bargaining altogether.
This isn't necessarily a prediction about which negotiations will be toughest. Teams cave all the time. But these are the ones that should require the most deliberation.
DeMarcus Cousins, New Orleans Pelicans
1 of 7
Player's Case
I averaged 25.2 points, 12.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists before getting hurt this year. Nobody in NBA history has ever matched those averages in a complete season. And while everybody likes to think my absence was the key to unlocking Anthony Davis and starting a late surge that resulted in a playoff berth, we were 9-3 in my last dozen games.
This thing was turning around before I got hurt, and I had a lot to do with it.
Plus, Anthony Davis might have second thoughts about sticking with this organization if he thinks it isn't committed to winning. Letting me walk would be a bad look, and it could cost you AD down the line.
In light of the health concerns you might have, I'll cut you a break and take way less than the five-year, $175 million max you could pay me. Give me $100 million over four years.
Team's Counter
Boogie, we love you. And we love that AD loves you.
But a torn Achilles is about as devastating as injuries get. Nobody makes it back to top form, and you're an even rarer case because of your size. We want to believe you can return to your peak levels, but the odds just don't support that kind of optimism.
In addition, we're also digging Davis as our center in a spaced-out lineup. It has unleashed him. From an allocation-of-resources standpoint, it makes more sense for us to spend on wings and shooters than on another big man.
That said, we're terrified of what Davis might think if we let you walk. So how about this: A one-plus-one deal with a player option on the second season. It'll start at $45 million in total value but it'll be heavily incentivized (based on games played, All-Star nods, All-NBA, etc.) and could pay as much as $58 million if you reach the stipulated goals.
Prediction
Cousins and his representatives leak interest from other teams all summer, trying to drive the price up. But ultimately, Boogie winds up back with in New Orleans on a short-term, incentive-laden deal—perhaps for even less than the one the fictitious Pels offered above.
Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
2 of 7
Player's Case
Injuries are the only reason I haven't reached All-Star status yet, but my willingness to fight back from two ACL tears should show you the depth of my work ethic and resiliency. You won't find many 23-year-olds with resolve like mine—nor will you find many who are proven 20-point scorers with an offensive game basically custom-built for the pace-and-space era.
I'm devastating in transition. My open-court speed and handle are unparalleled in players my size, and I shot 38.3 percent from deep last year. If you see Giannis Antetokounmpo as the floor-spacing center that unlocks our true potential, I'm the perfect secondary shot-maker at the 4. You can even use me as the first option on the second unit.
Because of my injuries, I still haven't come close to peaking. I was the No. 2 overall pick for a reason. You don't want to be the team that let me walk in restricted free agency and then watches me average 25 a game someplace else.
I want a max extension for five years and $146 million, which I already asked for once.
Team's Counter
We love the fight you've shown in making it back from some tough injuries, and we respect your scoring skill. But we need more defensive impact from a top-line starter, and we have to handle this in a way that makes sense in current market conditions.
So while we believe in you and want you to be part of our team moving forward, we're not in a position to offer a max extension right now—at least partially because we didn't offer one to Giannis, and doing it for you might make him wonder where our priorities are.
We extended you a three-year deal in the neighborhood of $54 million in October, as ESPN.com's Zach Lowe reported, and we're not convinced the market justifies that anymore. Not only that, but we don't want to compromise the massive cap space we could have in 2019. If you can get an offer sheet that tops those numbers, we'll be glad for you.
Prediction
Milwaukee extends the qualifying offer as a formality and then declines to match a three-year, $60 million offer sheet, letting Parker walk.
Zach LaVine, Chicago Bulls
3 of 7
Player's Case
Do you know how bad it'll look if you let me go in restricted free agency? At the time you swung the Jimmy Butler deal, I was the centerpiece. You can't afford to lose me for nothing.
I can play both backcourt positions and showed last year that my athleticism was almost entirely back after that ACL tear, and I play a style that'll put fans in the seats. Somebody out there is going to view me as a cornerstone in this up-and-down, triple-crazed era of offensive ball, and they're not going to be bothered by my defensive issues.
I'm going to need a max extension on the table unless you want me to test restricted free agency.
Team's Counter
Here's a rare instance where the team made its own argument publicly, via K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune:
"Zach will have options," executive vice president John Paxson said. "Other teams can talk to him. The market dictates a lot (about) how things go. I think the market has tightened up a little bit the last couple years since the (salary-cap) spike. But we obviously value Zach a lot, and we think he’s a part of our future. We have great faith in his ability. But he has the opportunity to explore things."
Loose translation: Go see what somebody else thinks your worth, and we'll decide if we agree. We lowballed Butler in 2014, and you've got far less leverage than he did.
"If you hooked the Bulls up to a lie detector" translation: You've got potential, but right now you're an empty scorer who doesn't defend. Good luck finding a sucker who'll pay close to the max for that.
Prediction
LaVine finds little market interest and settles on what is, to him, a disappointing offer sheet. Chicago matches, and he returns to the Bulls on a four-year, $58 million deal (which, to my mind, is still too rich).
Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz
4 of 7
Player's Case
Don't let trends tell you what to do, guys. I know conventional wisdom says two-big lineups don't work anymore, but you can't deny how good we were when I shared the floor with Rudy Gobert this year. In 842 minutes together, we posted a plus-7.2 net rating.
I'm not going to ask for starting-center money, but you know I can produce at that level when I'm healthy. I gave you 77 games this year, and I averaged 12.3 points and 7.2 boards in only 28 minutes per game. You'd have to pay handsomely for those stats on the open market, and I can get those numbers at the 4 or the 5.
I'm still only 26, and Rudy has missed at least 21 games in two of the last three years. I'm the best insurance you'll find if he gets hurt again. You can afford to give me a four-year, $60 million deal.
Team's Counter
We're a little concerned about how things have gone in the playoffs, particularly against the Rockets. We figure we'll have to beat them and/or the Warriors to get where we want to go, and it's not clear the two-big look works against competition like that. In fact, Houston destroyed us in the minutes you played with Rudy.
Besides that, we're concerned about spending significant money on a second big man when we've already invested $102 million in Gobert. The allocation-of-resources math doesn't check out on that.
We love how you've looked when healthy, especially this season. But we can't get ourselves stuck in another substantial deal for someone we don't intend to utilize as a big-minute starter going forward.
How's the mid-level exception sound? Three years at $8.6 million per season?
Prediction
Favors bets on himself, taking a one-year deal worth $14 million from the Dallas Mavericks with an eye on 2019 free agency.
Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trail Blazers
5 of 7
Player's Case
If I sign an offer sheet and leave for another team, you guys can't replace me with cap space. So the only way to make sure Zach Collins isn't your starting center in October is to extend me the qualifying offer and match whatever deal I sign in restricted free agency.
See how generous I'm being? I'm not even asking for a contract offer up front. I want to see what my value is out there, and I understand it doesn't make sense for you to sign me before letting the market dictate what I'm worth. That's a risk on your end, of course, as it'll only take one rebuilding team with cap space to see (and pay) me as a centerpiece.
I was key to the league's best rim defense this past year, and you'll have a hard time finding another center who can do that and give you 14.3 points and 9.0 rebounds at age 23.
Team's Counter
We're big fans of Collins, so using him as a threat doesn't persuade us. In addition, it's not necessarily true that we'll hand him the starting job if you leave. We have our mid-level exception (though we're not sure yet whether it'll be the full or taxpayer variety), and the dearth of good landing spots out there means we can haul in a quality big at a discount.
Brook Lopez will take our money. Same with Greg Monroe, Nerlens Noel or Amir Johnson. We have options.
We like you, and we want you back. But we're already on the hook for fat deals to Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Evan Turner. Not to mention, we owe Moe Harkless and Meyers Leonard a total of $43.2 million over the next two seasons. We can't afford to pay a penny more than we have to.
Go ahead and test the market. We'll wait.
Prediction
Nurkic doesn't get the offer sheet he wants, returns to the Blazers and plays 2018-19 on his qualifying offer before hitting unrestricted free agency in 2019.
Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
6 of 7
Player's Case
I proved last year I could add elements to my game by hitting a career-high 33.6 percent of my treys on dramatically increased volume, and I showed off a brand-new off-the-dribble jumper that should enable me to do much more as a secondary shot creator.
I'm only 22, I have off-the-charts athleticism and I profile as the versatile wing/forward weapon every good team wants. Get me in a winning situation with stable coaching, and I'll bet you I also turn into a net-positive defender, too. I have the tools; I just need the right instruction and motivation.
Look around at your roster. I'm the closest thing you have to a cornerstone, and letting me go would seriously peeve a fanbase that has to be tired of hopeless sub-mediocrity. Let me go, and you'll regret it when I do a Shawn Marion impression in my prime.
Max me out, or I'm going to make a full-bore push to get at least a $100 million offer sheet from someone else. This can't be news to you. I told you the max was "ideal" after our season ended.
Five years and $148 million, please.
Team's Counter
Mr. Gordon, sir, you are most gracious for deigning to speak with us. We recognize how empty our cupboards are, and we'd like to make this as easy as possible for you.
We love your potential, your willingness to work on your game and your capacity to fit perfectly in the modern NBA's switch-heavy schemes. There aren't many open-floor threats like you—especially ones with tantalizing hints of a three-point game at this early age.
We're prepared to offer you a four-year deal (with an opt-out after three seasons) at a total of $114 million.
Prediction
Gordon gladly accepts the opt-out in the fourth year in lieu of the guaranteed fifth season that would have paid him as much as $34.4 million, prizing the flexibility and chance to re-enter the market in his prime. He takes the offer and stays with the Magic.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
7 of 7
Player's Case
It sort of feels like you guys are ready to break up. I mean, Doc said "I'm just very proud of him. We had a great relationship" when asked about me after the season, according to Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times. That's past-tense talk. Don't think that's lost on me.
As a formality, I'll ask: I want a three-year offer for at least $70 million. Serge Ibaka got three years and $65 million last summer, and I'm better than that dude. Maybe he stretches the floor a little, but I've averaged at least 13.6 rebounds per game in each of the last five years. And don't forget my value as a lob threat and my improvement (58 percent!) from the foul line.
You know what you're going to get from me on both ends, so I'm going to need an answer quickly. Otherwise, I'll just opt out and bounce.
Team's Counter
DJ, you've played more games than anyone else in Clippers history, and even if you basically left us for the Mavs a couple of summers ago, we appreciate your reliability. That said, you're a conventional big man in a league that is running out of room for that player type. And you'll turn 30 in July.
We aren't going to push you out the door, but we also can't commit to you on a new contract of that size. Not while we're rebuilding, and not when the market doesn't justify your asking price.
Why don't you opt in to the final year of your deal, lock up $24.1 million in 2018-19 earnings and play well enough for us to trade you to a contender before the February deadline?
Everybody wins that way.
Prediction
Jordan can't find anyone to pay him "Ibaka money," opts in and gets traded during the season.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass or NBA.com unless otherwise specified. Salary info and cap estimates via Spotrac.
