Contender or Pretender on MLB Teams Flying out of the Gate
The list of the top contenders through the first month of the 2018 Major League Baseball season will make you say either "Yeah, that makes sense" or "Woah, really?"
It's as good a time as any to determine which is which.
We're going to play a game of contender or pretender with the 12 teams (three of which have the same record) at the top of the MLB standings as of May 1. This involves breaking down their overall performances as well as looking into individual production that may or may not have lasting power.
Let's take it away.
Note: Records and stats are accurate through play on April 30.
The 16-12 Trio: Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels
1 of 10
Philadelphia Phillies
It's about time the Philadelphia Phillies had something to show for their rebuild, and the credit for it belongs almost entirely to their pitching staff. It's been one of the best at stifling exit velocity (86.9 mph average), and that's helped it build a solid 3.76 ERA.
Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera have been terrific on the other side of the ball, but too many of the club's other talented youngsters have struggled to pull their weight. Hence, the offense's modest .700 OPS.
The Phillies don't have a wide margin for error. Such things have a way of coming back to bite teams.
Verdict: Pretender
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have been beset by bad starting pitching (5.24 ERA), and the only real hope involves Marcus Stroman reverting back to his ace-like form from 2017.
On the plus side, the Blue Jays are scoring 5.3 runs per game despite the fact that Josh Donaldson has barely played this season. That hints at their much-improved offensive depth. Elsewhere in the much-improved category is their bullpen, which leads the American League with a 2.28 ERA.
In short, the Blue Jays are well equipped to survive their starting pitching problems. They should stick in the AL wild-card race, at the very least.
Verdict: Contender
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have scored only four more runs than they've allowed, and they generally have a look of a team with a rickety formula for success. Their offense has relied too much on Mike Trout's Mike Troutiness and Shohei Ohtani's explosive cameos. Their pitching staff, meanwhile, is largely unspectacular.
Over time, however, they should get more out of Justin Upton, Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart and Kole Calhoun. And not just on offense, as the four of them are part of a defense that's been curiously inefficient thus far. That will help account for the aforementioned unspectacular mound staff.
The Angels probably aren't going to challenge the Houston Astros for the AL West title, but they should stay in the wild-card race.
Verdict: Contender
Pittsburgh Pirates
2 of 10
Record: 17-12
The Pittsburgh Pirates scored 4.1 runs per game with Andrew McCutchen in 2017, and they're now scoring 4.9 runs per game without him in 2018.
It helps that they have Starling Marte back and functioning properly following his suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. The Pirates' strong offense is also a testament to their shrewd pickups of Colin Moran and Corey Dickerson. And the team has been the National League's best (.835 OPS) at hitting in high-leverage situations.
And yet, the overall numbers are misleading.
Pittsburgh's offense has hit the skids over its last 17 games, and that's brought the cracks into focus. Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell remain enigmatic young players. Elsewhere, there's a limit to how much the Bucs can rely on Dickerson and Moran.
Likewise, there's a limit to how much anyone can trust the Pirates' pitching.
Their bullpen has managed just a 4.28 ERA. Their starters have done better to the tune of a 3.80 ERA, but there's an alarmingly large gap between their expected offensive results (.348 xwOBA) and their actual offensive results (.303 wOBA).
All told, there's a bit too much flimsiness in Pittsburgh for comfort.
Verdict: Pretender
Seattle Mariners
3 of 10
Record: 16-11
It's impossible to talk about the Seattle Mariners without throwing props to Mitch Haniger and Edwin Diaz.
Haniger looked the part of a budding superstar when he was healthy in 2017, and he's now realizing that potential with a 1.085 OPS and 10 home runs this season. It's hard to tell from his lack of buzz, but he's thrust himself into the early American League MVP discussion.
For his part, Diaz has been completely overpowering as Seattle's closer. He's allowed just one run in 14.2 innings and struck out 27 of the 56 batters he's faced.
Now, if only the rest of the Mariners were as impressive as Haniger and Diaz.
Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are also having strong seasons, but there are simply too many weak spots elsewhere in the club's lineup. Hence, its good-not-great average of 4.7 runs per game.
This is barely enough to carry a starting pitching staff that's put up an MLB-worst 5.62 ERA. The one guy who should turn things around is live-armed lefty James Paxton. Everyone else...not so much.
In sum, the Mariners are a team with a fatal flaw and not enough ironclad strengths to overcome it in the long run.
Verdict: Pretender
.png?w=256)
Atlanta Braves
4 of 10
Record: 16-11
Like the Phillies, the Atlanta Braves are another team that's burst out of a rebuilding phase to gain a strong foothold in the NL East. So, this is the part where I'm supposed to say "nah."
But if anything, the Braves are actually underachieving.
They're leading the National League in OPS (.781) and runs (151). There are some unsustainable performances at play there, but it's easy to have faith in their core four. Freddie Freeman has been one of baseball's best hitters for several years now, and Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Ronald Acuna Jr. are ultra-talented youths who were bound to find the spotlight at some point.
The Braves are also getting a solid 3.64 ERA. The key players in their bullpen are reliable, but it's easy to have suspicions about their ragtag rotation (i.e., Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz, Brandon McCarthy and Sean Newcomb) maintaining their 3.42 ERA.
Then again, Atlanta's starters are striking out more than a batter per inning (9.2 K/9) and pitching to one of the more efficient defenses in MLB. And even if things do go south, Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara and Kolby Allard are capable of stepping in.
Ultimately, the Braves are a surprising team with a surprisingly long list of things to like.
Verdict: Contender
Chicago Cubs
5 of 10
Record: 16-10
It hasn't been a great start for the Chicago Cubs, but they're nonetheless where most everyone expected them to be: atop the NL Central.
Not surprisingly, the Cubs lineup has led the way. It's playing its usual brand of excellent defense, and it's also produced a solid .746 OPS and 5.1 runs per game. Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber have been a dynamic duo, and Javier Baez has turned himself into one of the best power hitters in baseball. Only Anthony Rizzo needs to get going, which is very much within the realm of doable.
"It's a bad stretch, but what can you do about it?" the first baseman said April 24. "I've hit the ball well. I'm seeing the ball well and have a plan. If you fail, there's nothing you can do about it."
With Chicago's relievers dominating with a 2.56 ERA, the only real concern on the north side involves a starting rotation that's being held back by Jose Quintana and Yu Darvish.
The two of them did, however, team up to allow just one run (unearned, to boot) over 13 innings to the Milwaukee Brewers in their most recent assignments. And both appear to be fine physically.
So, yeah, the Cubs are legit. A real shocker, I know.
Verdict: Contender
New York Yankees
6 of 10
Record: 18-10
Pretty much everyone expected the New York Yankees to use their offense to pound enemies into submission this year. So far, pretty much everyone is looking like a genius.
The Yankees lead the majors in home runs (41) and OPS (.797). This is despite the fact that only Didi Gregorius and Aaron Judge have been hot all season. Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez will make their presence felt eventually. And the Yankees are just now getting to experience the upside of youngsters Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar.
"It's good to see, put it that way," infield coach Carlos Mendoza said of Torres and Andujar. "It's fun that we're winning games and they're a big part of what we're doing right now."
The Yankees have also gotten a 3.62 ERA out of their pitching staff, which has only a few stragglers. None more so than Sonny Gray, who's put up a 6.67 ERA in six starts.
However, Gray did turn a corner by allowing just two earned runs in six innings to the Houston Astros on Monday. Perhaps spurred on by a piece from FanGraphs' Sheryl Ring, he separated himself from the Yankees' anti-fastball philosophy and got back to what works for him.
In sum, the Yankees are as advertised yet still have room to get better.
Verdict: Contender
New York Mets
7 of 10
Record: 17-9
According to Baseball Reference, the New York Mets are one of the luckiest teams in MLB. They've won 17 games. By all rights, it should be more like 14.
The Mets have been a mediocre offensive team, as they own just a .714 OPS and scored 4.9 runs per game. Their best hitter has been Asdrubal Cabrera, which won't last forever.
The Mets have also been a mediocre run prevention team. Their defense still isn't great, and they've relied too heavily on Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Jeurys Familia, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo to carry their pitching staff. And Lugo may already be running out of gas.
Still, there are excuses to tip the scales in favor of optimism.
At least deGrom and Syndergaard are healthy and thus capable of continuing to carrying the Mets. And sooner or later, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce should take the reins of the team's offense from Cabrera.
Then there's the big one: The Washington Nationals have enough injury trouble to hold them back for a while. The Mets aren't a great team, but they (along with the Braves) are good enough to take advantage of that.
Verdict: Contender
Houston Astros
8 of 10
Record: 20-10
Hey, look. It's a team that won 101 games and the World Series last year. Think they're legitimate contenders again this season?
Yes, you say? Well, you're right.
With pitching like theirs, how could they not be? The Astros lead everyone with a 2.54 ERA, and even the most specific metrics (.281 xwOBA) support the notion that their pitchers really have been that good at shutting down the opposition.
Nobody's done it as well as Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton. Each has made six starts, and each owns an ERA under 2.00 and a K/9 in double digits. Even for such a small sample size, that's impressive.
The one thing that might be a cause for concern is how Houston's offense has regressed from its historic greatness in 2017. It has a .746 OPS and is scoring five runs per game.
That's plenty good enough for their pitching, however. And they're at least getting what they need from Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, who continue to be a formidable trio. Plus, the whole lineup is playing spectacular defense.
At any rate, that's more convincing than anyone should need.
Verdict: Contender
Arizona Diamondbacks
9 of 10
Record: 20-8
The Arizona Diamondbacks won 93 games in 2017, but the general sense coming into 2018 was that the new season would prove last year to be a one-off.
So far, so not right.
If there's a reason to doubt the D-backs, it has to do with a starting rotation that's on thinner ice than its 3.61 ERA lets on. Taijuan Walker has already been lost for the season. Robbie Ray is also hurt, and Zack Greinke has been up and down.
Contrary to 2017, however, Arizona doesn't need its rotation to do too much heavy lifting. The club is already feeling the benefits of a revamped bullpen, which is dominating with an MLB-best 1.92 ERA. And it's underlying performance (.286 xwOBA) is nearly as positive.
Chances are, we haven't seen the best of the D-backs offense either.
Arizona leads the National League with 34 homers despite the fact that Jake Lamb and Steven Souza Jr. have zero homers between them. Once they return from injuries, they'll combine with Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and Nick Ahmed to form a heck of an offensive core.
And just as the Mets stand to benefit from the withering of the Nationals, the Diamondbacks stand to benefit from the injuries that have sacked the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Verdict: Contender
Boston Red Sox
10 of 10
Record: 21-7
The Boston Red Sox opened 2018 by becoming the seventh team in MLB history to win 17 of its first 19 games.
They've cooled since then, but not to a degree that anyone should be worried about a collapse.
It isn't just the addition of J.D. Martinez that's made the Red Sox's offense so much scarier than it was in 2017. New manager Alex Cora has also had a hand in the team's .790 OPS and 5.7 runs per game, as his preaching of aggression has helped up Boston's in-zone slugging percentage from .478 to .509.
The Red Sox have also put together a 3.34 ERA on the other side of the ball. The catch is that this hasn't been a group effort, and it won't be until Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz settle down and the Red Sox figure out a solid bridge to Craig Kimbrel.
But if nothing else, the Red Sox don't need Chris Sale to bear as heavy a burden as he did last year. Rick Porcello has reverted back to his Cy Young Award-winning form from 2016. David Price hasn't been vintage, but it's good enough that he's healthy and effective.
The only real question is how long the Red Sox can hold off the Yankees in the race for the AL East crown. But even if they fail in that regard, they can run away with the AL's top wild card.
Verdict: Contender
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball and Baseball Savant.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
