Will Revamped Dallas Mavericks Find a Good Surf or Drown in a Tidal Wave?

Dirk Nowitzki showed up to Dallas Mavericks training camp several weeks ago in full surfer-dude mode.

Sporting a beard straight out of the Geico caveman commercials, the longest hair of his career, and a lighter frame, the German seven-footer looked ready to catch a wave.

More important to head coach Rick Carlisle, owner Mark Cuban and the fans, Nowitzki appeared to have shed some emotional weight, too.

He found out this summer the woman he once planned to marry, the partner with whom he wanted to father children, was a fraud.

While it would not be advisable for the music director at American Airlines Center to play “Billie Jean” at Mavs home games, Nowitzki seems to have put the Cristal Taylor nightmare behind him.

Carlisle can only hope his star forward has done the same with those memories of playoff futility.

Blowing a 2-0 NBA Finals lead, then losing in the first round in consecutive seasons is a real psyche killer.

If Nowitzki’s goofy, carefree look is an indicator of his mental health, the rest of the Western Conference should not dismiss the explosive Mavericks as average road kill.

Nothing will dictate the Mavericks’ fate better than the demeanor of the franchise’s foundation.

News that someone you thought you knew and loved has been arrested on 2006 theft of services charges and a 12-year-old probation violation (and imprisoned) is never easy to take.

Cuban told the Dallas Morning News that word of Taylor’s indiscretions broke near the tail end of the first-round win over the Spurs.

That means Nowitzki averaged nearly 30 points against the Nuggets whilst dealing with instability and shock in his personal life.

Maybe he isn’t the Euro softie so many believe him to be.

To shoot that well against a Denver defense designed to frustrate opponents via physicality and hard fouls takes toughness, and the Mavericks will need a lot of more of it if they hope to survive an improved Western Conference, not to mention any of their meetings with the defending champion Lakers.

The 2006 choke job has shaped Nowitzki’s disappear-in-big-moments reputation. Undeserved and fallible as that characterization is, it has influenced how most view the Mavericks’ prospects, too.

Had Nowitzki drained a few more baskets in Game Three or the infamous Game Five in Miami, we might be talking about the Mavericks as former champions.

Joke of a referee Bennett Salvatore also played an unfortunate and downright cruel role in the Heat’s series-turning victory.

Championship pedigree means a lot, and it’s why most expect the Spurs to go a lot farther in the playoffs, even though the Mavs beat them convincingly in a five-game, opening round set mere months ago.

Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili have closed out opponents in the NBA Finals three times together, with Duncan also hoisting the trophy in 1999. With Parker entering his prime, the other two stars still in theirs, and the summer delivery of serious firepower, finding San Antonio stock buyers is facile.

The Mavericks? Not so much.

If NBA writers see the Lakers as JP Morgan, mighty in a time of financial crisis, they opine the Mavericks as Bear Sterns, the once powerful institution handicapped by its own gruesome collapse.

We’ll know in a few months if Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden, and the other additions can inspire more investor confidence in the former Finalists.

Even with the new arrivals, the quest for good fortune begins and ends with the surfer dude.

For now, at least, it looks like the surf’s up.

Genius deal for Marion should cancel out failure to land Gortat

The consensus from Mavericks fans is this: They’d like the offseason more if Marcin Gortat was starting at center instead of Erick Dampier.

Indeed, some MFFLs have a newfound vitriol for Orlando GM Otis Smith and the Magic organization.

If the offseason lost some of its luster when Smith opted to match Dallas’ full mid-level offer for the Polish pivot, a confusing but brilliant deal to land two-way talent

Marion should quell the anguish and disappointment.

Gortat was a dream, an approximation based on mathematical calculations. Rockets GM Daryl Morey and Mavs’ GM Donnie Nelson multiplied Gortat’s efficient averages as a backup times the number of minutes they anticipated he would play, and appraised his value from there.

There is no guarantee that Gortat will ever produce as a full-time starter the way he did as a fill-in starter and reserve in the 2009 playoffs.

Mavericks fans don’t have to wonder about what Marion might bring. Once a do-it-all-forward in the high-octane, Mike D’Antoni offense alongside Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire, Marion has since played on two squads unequipped to benefit from his strengths.

His flexible game requires that he be surrounded with All-Star performers, and in Dallas, he won’t have to overcompensate as he did for the Heat’s inadequacies
(Shaq was right, if rude, when he called out Chris Quinn and other D-Leaguers as lackluster talents) or Toronto’s defenselessness.

No player should benefit more from Marion’s presence than the embattled Howard. While plans to start J-Ho at off guard may sound ludicrous, expect the Wake Forest product to drop points wherever Carlisle plays him.

Marion will lessen the pressure Howard faces on both ends of the floor. Howard no longer has to be the team’s primo defender or its clear-cut second option.

No one stops Kobe Bryant, but at least Marion can play tough, disciplined defense on the Lakers star.

Who would you rather have defending Bryant in a close game with two minutes to go in the fourth quarter? Antoine Wright and Jason Kidd or Marion?

The former duo took turns on No. 24 last year and failed miserably, to say the least.

The Heat owes a victory over the Lakers last year to Marion’s resilient, smart defense on Bryant.

Maybe the Mavericks can say the same in a few months.

Can Gooden stick this time?

The adroit former Kansas standout can create crafty, high-percentage shots in the post, rebound, defend in earnest and block an occasional shot. He also has a reputation as a good guy on and off the court.

So, what’s wrong with Gooden?

I still wonder as other sports writers do why this guy keeps getting the boot.

Most would look at a 16-point, seven-rebound night, even in a preseason tilt, as the sign of a solid acquisition. He posted those totals this week, and yet, his production seems as hollow as ever.

The number that cannot lie: He has bounced between six teams in seven seasons.

Gooden is damaged goods; a flawed prospect Carlisle has to hope can find the electrical switch.

Forgive my lack of excitement about the 6’10” forward’s arrival in Big D or the possibility of him playing heavy minutes at center.

The Cleveland Cavaliers willingly traded him the year after he started for them in the NBA Finals.

The San Antonio Spurs made no effort to re-sign him amidst the costliest roster overhaul in team history.

He did not leave enough of an impression for the four-time champs to even consider a contract offer.

Everywhere he lands, he hopes his newest destination will become his last in the NBA. Everywhere he plays, his employer ends the partnership without pause.

Several reports in the Cleveland Plain-Dealer suggested Gooden struggled to remember plays and even the names of his assistant coaches—in his third year with the team.

Focus has always been a chief issue, and it will be spotlighted more so now that his teammates have been asked since 2006 if they know what that word means.

Can Gooden finally unpack his bags and stay a while or will his expiring deal become the ticket to his next final stop?

Has Cuban done enough to shake up a damaged core?

Devin Harris now starts for the New Jersey Nets, Keith Van Horn retired, Jerry Stackhouse has yet to sign with a team, and DeSagana Diop now protects the interior for the Charlotte Bobcats.

The question remains relevant.

Have Nelson and Cuban done enough to shake up a core accustomed to big-moment failures?

Erick Dampier is still the starting center, Nowitzki is still the franchise’s best player, Jason Terry still drops treys like Kanye West does F-bombs, and Howard still stares the same questions in the face.

The team’s blemished core needed a kick in the pants, and if Marion still has the legs I think he does, the opponents will be the ones yelling, “ouch.”

Mavs hopes rest on consistency and defense

The Mavericks allowed 99.8 points per contest, with opponents hitting shots at a 45 percent clip.

Check out these final scores from a road jaunt in January.

Dallas 99, Milwaukee 133.

Dallas 112, Detroit 91.

Dallas 100, Boston 124.

If the Mavericks want to do more than win once in the second round, the above problem areas must improve.

Um, duh.

A look at the new arrivals

With Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden detailed above, here are the other new players.

KRIS HUMPHRIES – The 6’9” forward brings all-out hustle and strength.

However, his offensive game is as unreliable as his porous post defense.

Bigger players can render him useless and offense and bigger or more athletic scorers can find the basket and bottom of the net against him with ease.

He has shown limited offensive skill and penchant for attacking the glass.

He will be useful as a backup’s backup, but don’t expect him to alter Dallas’ win-loss record.

QUINTON ROSS – Perhaps the least heralded acquisition of the summer, expect Ross to make an impact off the bench. Thought at times overly concerned with his offensive output, he brings stunning athleticism and stout defense.

At 6’6”, some bigger guards can shoot over his outstretched hands. Still, scoring against Ross will be a chore, and guarding him in the loaded Mavs offense will prove no cakewalk.

TIM THOMAS – The clown who once taunted Nowitzki before a playoff game (and then proceeded to give up 50 points to the German) says he wants to get serious as a Mav.

Ha. Very funny (Can I force TBS to pay me for that?).

His overrated post defense can easily be overpowered, and his offensive repertoire is often limited to hoisting knucklehead three-pointers.

By all accounts, he’s a big loser with a small game.

An injury will keep him on the sidelines for the foreseeable future.

RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS – Before you anoint him as the next Tony Parker, do realize that he’s still 21 with only the Vegas Summer League and preseason minutes to count as NBA-level experience.

He has shown in those exhibitions, though, that picking him in the mid-20s was no stretch.

If he learns to harness his blinding speed along with his ceaseless wingspan, he could become a solid position defender and a pace-changer on offense. The instinct and hustle he shows in grabbing up loose balls offers a glimpse of his potential.

For now, the elite athlete will have to take a seat behind Kidd and Jose Juan Barea.