Irrational Conclusions to Draw from 2018 MLB Opening Week
With a week of MLB action in the books, we know...well, next to nothing about the 2018 season. Every stat and win-loss total must be taken with a truckload of small-sample grains of salt.
Still, it's bordering on irresistible to render snap judgements. We waited all those frigid months for meaningful baseball, after all.
Here, then, are six irrational conclusions that can be drawn thus far, along with cool-headed rebuttals.
Take whichever side suits your fancy.
Andrew McCutchen Is Finished
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Irrational Conclusion
The San Francisco Giants acquired outfielder Andrew McCutchen from the Pittsburgh Pirates this winter for a decent cache of prospects. The 31-year-old outfielder is set to hit free agency after the season, meaning he was a win-now rental for a club coming off a 98-loss campaign.
Through six games, McCutchen is 2-for-24 and owns a .083/.120/.125 slash line.
He's also a five-time All-Star and won the 2013 National League MVP. It's worth wondering, however, if this is the season McCutchen tumbles off the production cliff.
Rational Rebuttal
McCutchen will likely never again approach his peak production. That doesn't mean he's finished.
He enjoyed a nice bounce-back season with the Bucs in 2017, as he hit .279 with 28 home runs. His .111 batting average on balls in play with the Giants pales in comparison to his career mark of .327, while his hard-contact rate of 38.9 percent with San Francisco is above his career figure of 36.9 percent.
Acquiring McCutchen may prove a mistake for the Giants if they drop out of contention and initiate a delayed rebuild. The notion that he's an offensive drag is obviously premature.
The Los Angeles Dodgers Are Due for a Backslide
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Irrational Conclusion
After marching to Game 7 of the 2017 World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers were perched on the doorstep of greatness. It was a matter of when, not if, they'd hoist their first Commissioner's Trophy since 1988.
So far in 2018, the defending NL champs have been downright mediocre.
Through seven games, Los Angeles sits at 2-5 and has been shut out twice by the Giants and once by the Arizona Diamondbacks, its biggest challenger in the NL West.
What's worse, the Dodgers' .549 OPS ranks second to last and their .202 average checks in at No. 25. Despite their big-spending ways and recent run of success, Los Angeles looks like a middle-of-the-pack pretender.
Rational Rebuttal
Settle down. No, the Dodgers haven't hit well in the early going. They're still arguably the deepest team in the Senior Circuit if not all of baseball.
The bats will come around, particularly when third baseman and key lineup cog Justin Turner returns from a fractured wrist suffered on a hit-by-pitch this spring.
The pitching staff, meanwhile, is third in baseball with a 2.58 ERA and fronted by a fellow named Clayton Kershaw. The D-backs, Colorado Rockies and even the Giants could make the Dodgers sweat. Ultimately, though, L.A. is the class of the division.
The Chicago White Sox Have Arrived
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Irrational Conclusion
With loads of young talent on the MLB roster and more marinating in the minors, the Chicago White Sox have a bright future. Could that future be now?
Through five games, White Sox hitters pace MLB with an .898 OPS and 14 home runs. At 3-2, they're tied with the Minnesota Twins for first place in the American League Central.
In a relatively weak division, the ChiSox could ascend sooner than anyone expected.
Rational Rebuttal
Hold your horses, South Siders. No one denies the White Sox are a fun, young team with burgeoning stars like infielder Yoan Moncada, shortstop Tim Anderson, right-hander Lucas Giolito, etc. And we're all eagerly anticipating the big league debut of flame-throwing righty Michael Kopech.
There will be growing pains, however. Yes, Chicago has slugged in the early going. Their pitchers have also amassed a 6.07 ERA with an even uglier 7.80 ERA from the bullpen.
Young bats, meanwhile, can slump as quickly as they heat up. The White Sox will provide some thrilling moments in 2018, but they're a year or two away from legitimate contention.
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The Pittsburgh Pirates Have Righted the Ship
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Irrational Conclusion
It was a rough winter for the Pittsburgh Pirates. They traded franchise icon McCutchen to the Giants and ace Gerrit Cole to the Houston Astros. Fans started a Change.org petition aimed at forcing principal owner Bob Nutting to sell the team.
"Pittsburgh is a baseball town that is being destroyed by a greedy owner," the petition read. "There are so many loyal fans who truly care and support this team through thick and thin. We deserve better."
Ouch.
So far, the Pirates aren't looking too shabby. They opened the season with four straight wins. Right-hander Jameson Taillon tallied nine strikeouts in the home opener, hinting at his ace-like potential. The offense ranks fourth in the NL in runs scored. Perhaps rumors of the Bucs' demise were premature.
Rational Rebuttal
The Pirates are off to a solid start, no question. Can they hang with the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers over 162 games? Probably not.
Cole and McCutchen were key pieces who won't be easily replaced. Already the bullpen has shown troubling signs of weakness with a 5.82 ERA.
Amid his club's early success, veteran skipper Clint Hurdle is preaching caution.
"I think it's too early for us to get caught up in that," Hurdle said of Pittsburgh's initial surge, per Will Graves of the Associated Press. "We're just going to continue to show up and play the game. The game lets you know where you need to improve."
Spoken like a man who sees regression on the horizon.
Matt Harvey Is Back
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Irrational Conclusion
Once upon a time, New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey was the toast of Gotham. Then, a rash of injuries and underperformance reduced the Dark Knight to sub-superhero status. In 2017, his ERA ballooned to 6.70 and his MLB future was in jeopardy.
One start into 2018, Harvey is rising from the ashes.
In five innings Tuesday against the Philadelphia Phillies, Harvey struck out five while yielding one hit, one walk and zero runs.
"He's got that look in his eye back," catcher Travis d'Arnaud said, per James Wagner of the New York Times.
The Mets' fortunes rest on the health and effectiveness of their starting rotation. Regaining the Harvey of old could vault them back into the NL's elite.
Rational Rebuttal
A Harvey comeback would be great for the Mets and good for baseball. At his peak, he was among the most scintillating pitchers around.
It's possible the 29-year-old can still be effective. Can he be an ace? Probably not.
Harvey's career fastball velocity is 96 mph. In his Tuesday start against the Phils, that figure was 92.2 mph. Pitchers can learn to work with diminished zip and still miss bats. But let's look at the rest of that d'Arnaud quote, per Wagner: "He didn't have his best stuff but he was still in it. He wasn't going to give up."
Maybe Harvey can reinvent himself as a finesse pitcher who grinds out wins and, most essentially, stays healthy. That's a far cry from an undisputed No. 1.
Giancarlo Stanton Is a Boom-or-Bust Hitter
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Irrational Conclusion
Giancarlo Stanton clubbed two home runs in his New York Yankees debut. Visions of Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle were surely dancing in the Bronx faithful's heads. Then, in his Yankee Stadium debut, Stanton struck out five times and heard a smattering of boos.
Through six games, Stanton has a 1.029 OPS with three dingers. He's also hitting .217 with 12 strikeouts, with the latter figure tied for the league lead.
Maybe the Yankees' big offseason prize is doomed to a boom-or-bust season filled with towering home runs but dampened by stretches of feckless whiffing.
Rational Rebuttal
Like most modern mashers, Stanton strikes out a lot. But he's far from a one-dimensional slugger.
The 28-year-old reigning NL MVP owns a solid .360 career on-base percentage and .268 average. There's no reason to assume those figures will trend downward in the hitter-friendly confines at 1 E. 161st St.
With Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez flanking him, Stanton is poised for a ridiculous offensive output. Fans will have to endure the occasional string of strikeouts, but they'd be wise to swallow their boos.
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