2018 NBA Free Agents: Rumors, Predictions Based on Late-Season Buzz
This is one of the busiest times on the basketball calendar, with the NCAA tournament in the books, the NBA's regular season winding down and playoff hoops coming soon to 16 fortunate markets.
But in a player-driven league, there's always time to ponder about the upcoming free-agency market. And luckily, the barrage of on-court action hasn't stopped the off-court rumor mill from uncovering some interesting nuggets.
We'll dissect two of the bigger buzzes in the news cycle below and provide predictions on how we see these situations playing out.
Suns Covet Cousins?
The Phoenix Suns are trapped in a drought befitting of their desert surroundings. They're close to completing their eighth consecutive campaign without a playoff berth and last went dancing with the likes of Steve Nash and Amar'e Stoudemire leading a charge to the 2010 Western Conference Finals.
It comes as little surprise, then, that the franchise sounds eager to make a splash.
Multiple league sources told The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor that Phoenix chased DeMarcus Cousins at the 2017 trade deadline. It's unclear if Boogie is still a target—he ruptured his Achilles in late January—but O'Connor said, "The Suns are positioned to swing for the fences, and the time to do so could be coming soon."
Phoenix's league-worst 20-59 record might make the club appear as unlikely big-game hunters.
But the Suns have quietly received strong developmental seasons from Devin Booker and T.J. Warren, and last summer's No. 4 pick, Josh Jackson, has ramped up his production since the All-Star break (18.5 points on 45.0 percent shooting). Phoenix could also have three first-round picks in the upcoming draft, one of which might have the league's highest lottery odds.
Combine those improvements with the Suns having ample cap room in a cash-crunched market, and the ingredients are in place for Phoenix to make a big push for free agents.
"There are certain core pieces that are starting to solidify," Suns general manager Ryan McDonough said in January, per azcentral.com's Scott Bordow. "I think we'd be foolish or naive to wait forever or be overly patient. ... We'll probably be more aggressive in June and July than we have been the last couple of years."
That being said, there are other, more realistic ways for the Suns to spend their money than Cousins.
He's not only a risk given the injury, he could also be almost impossible to pry away from the New Orleans Pelicans. They saw promising results with him working alongside Anthony Davis (plus-4.2 net rating over 42 games), and they need to appease the Brow in every way possible before he hits the open market in 2021.
Phoenix might be better off targeting young restricted free agents. Rising frontcourt players like Clint Capela (Houston Rockets) and Aaron Gordon (Orlando Magic) should look especially appealing.
Prediction: Cousins re-signs with the Pelicans, Suns make offer to Capela.
Booming Market for Brooklyn Sharpshooter
Joe Harris' NBA career got off to an inauspicious start.
He was drafted 33rd overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2014. Even though the Cavs were coming off a 49-loss season, they quickly found themselves with little use for a second-round rookie once the additions of LeBron James and Kevin Love thrust them into the championship race.
Harris saw precious little floor time his first two seasons (508 minutes over 56 games) and was injured, traded, then waived midway through his sophomore campaign. But he latched on with the Brooklyn Nets the following summer, and he morphed into a high-volume, higher-efficiency outside shooter shortly thereafter.
His perseverance will soon be monetarily rewarded in a big way.
"The Nets swingman will be an unrestricted free agent this summer and is expected to receive a hefty pay raise," The Athletic's Michael Scotto wrote. "According to eight NBA executives...Harris could command anywhere from $4 million to $7 million annually this summer."
As steep as that might sound given Harris' rocky start, his recent numbers suggest he's worth it.
His 2017-18 stat sheet is littered with career highs, including 10.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Among the 100 players who've hit at least 100 triples, Harris ranks 18th in three-point percentage (41.1), right between J.J. Redick and Dirk Nowitzki. Out of the 239 players to attempt 100-plus drives, Harris converts those chances at the third-highest clip (60.6 percent).
Scotto reported mutual interest between Brooklyn and Harris, but he noted it would be "tougher" for the Nets to keep him if his next salary sits on the higher end of that scale.
Here's betting it will.
This season isn't even completed, and it already has eight of the most-active three-point shooting teams in NBA history. Teams crave the thing he does best, and he has flashed enough other skills to indicate he's more than a floor-spacing specialist. That will get him paid—by someone other than the Nets.
Prediction: Harris signs with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.
