NBA Draft Expert Takeaways from Sweet 16 and Elite 8
The NBA scouting goggles were on for the NCAA tournament's Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
There were a number of intriguing prospects in action Thursday through Sunday, including likely lottery picks in 2018 and breakout candidates for 2019.
A few may have moved the needle for themselves, for better or worse, based on their performances.
Scouts will now head to San Antonio for the Final Four, with Kansas-Villanova as the marquee matchup.
It's Worth Revisiting Malik Newman as an NBA Prospect
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Malik Newman is turning the corner, and it's worth revisiting the idea that he could eventually help an NBA team.
He erupted for 32 points against Duke, making five threes, the third straight game he's hit at least four. His shot-making was the story—Newman drilled big ones at key times, displaying a quick, confident release.
But he also showed his driving ability by blowing past defenders who were closing out on him.
Newman's body and maturity have both improved since his days at Mississippi State. And though he's still not a point guard or facilitator, it's possible NBA teams value his scoring prowess in a specialist role.
He'd be wise to return for another year at Kansas, without Big 12 Player of the Year Devonte' Graham, and work on his floor game as the Jayhawks' lead ball-handler.
Zhaire Smith (and NBA Teams) Will Have a Tough Decision
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To enter the draft or return? Zhaire Smith will have a tough decision, as will NBA teams if he does put his name in.
Smith is still far away skill-wise, but his explosive leaping ability, shot-making potential and defensive versatility points to exciting long-term upside.
His strengths and weaknesses were on full display throughout the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.
Smith buried a three-pointer in both games and showed off his spectacular hops around the rim on numerous putback chances. Against Villanova, he spent timing guarding 6'3" point guard Jalen Brunson, 6'7" small forward Mikal Bridges and 6'9" bigs Eric Paschall and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree.
He also struggled when attempting to create his own shot in the half court. Smith relies heavily on open jumpers and athleticism for offense.
Returning for another season at Texas Tech would allow him to improve on his scoring and playmaking. But there is also the chance that some team in this year's first round finds his potential to be too enticing to pass up on.
Duke Didn't Help Marvin Bagley III, but Bagley Didn't Help Himself
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Marvin Bagley III still wound up with 16 points against Kansas, but they weren't overly indicative of his impact, which was relatively minimal.
In 44 minutes, he only had nine field-goal attempts, as he was unable to find many scoring opportunities outside of finishing work, putback chances and one open three-point attempt.
Duke's guards didn't help get Bagley involved. But we also saw his weaknesses as a shot-creator. He had trouble with double-teams like he did all season (.683 PPP, 25th percentile). And his poor defensive awareness showed on multiple possessions.
It won't impact his stock, as Bagley appears locked into the top five after averaging 21.0 points. But he'll need to improve at both ends to outproduce his draft slot as an NBA pro.
Grayson Allen's First-Round Chances Have Taken a Hit
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Inconsistency has been a problem for Grayson Allen throughout his career. It was an issue in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, when he combined to shoot 7-of-28 against Syracuse and Kansas.
His NBA sales pitch revolves around shot-making and athleticism, but he has been an erratic shooter and weak finisher at the rim (41.7 percent).
Throw in that he'll be 23 years old in October, projects poorly on defense and makes questionable decisions, and Allen could have trouble convincing a first-round team he's worth the risk.
After he'd spent most of the season on our first-round mock draft board, our next edition will have Allen in the 30s.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Won't Fly Up Boards, but He Won't Fall, Either
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Heading into the Sweet 16, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was averaging 19.4 points, 6.9 assists and 5.3 rebounds (11-of-20 3PT) over his previous nine games. And then he struggled during Kentucky's loss to Kansas State, finishing 2-of-10 with a costly turnover late.
It won't negate his impressive run in March, and it's worth noting that only one other player for Kentucky was able to notch an assist against the Wildcats. That points to Gilgeous-Alexander's workload as the team's only source of playmaking.
It's still unlikely he winds up moving ahead of Trae Young or Collin Sexton on NBA draft boards. He lacks Young's shot-making skills and Sexton's athleticism and speed.
But over the course of the season, Gilgeous-Alexander has put together an intriguing enough case with his size for a ball-handler (6'6"), facilitating instincts, crafty scoring and defensive versatility. Even with the unsatisfying finish, he remains a good bet to go top 20 in the draft and be the third NCAA guard selected.
We Saw the Best and Worst of Moritz Wagner
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Moritz Wagner had a terrific Sweet 16 and an ugly Elite Eight, performances that accurately sum him up.
He scored 21 points against Texas A&M's talented frontcourt, drilling all three of his three-pointers and showing some off-the-dribble wiggle as a face-up scorer.
As a skilled big man (6'11", 245 lbs), Wagner has drawn attention for his ability to stretch the floor and work around the perimeter.
But all of his negatives showed in the followup game against Florida State, when he shot 0-of-7 from behind the arc and picked up four fouls in 25 minutes. Wagner doesn't offer much when his shot isn't falling. He struggles on defense, both in space and with physicality down low.
On the season, he totaled just 31 assists, 20 blocks and 35 steals in 1,009 minutes.
The idea of Wagner and his shooting potential should be enough to get him drafted, and there are bound to be some teams that overvalue his passion and energy. The Florida State game was a reminder of why he isn't a first-round lock, though he could still have two games left to strengthen his case around his scoring versatility.
Jalen Brunson Will Get First-Round Looks
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Jalen Brunson will at least make teams think about drafting him in the 20s.
He poured in 27 points on Jevon Carter and West Virginia in the Sweet 16 before guiding Villanova through missed shots and foul trouble to outlast Texas Tech. He continues to showcase his off-the-dribble shooting ability, unique post game, tough finishing around the basket and savvy passing.
Still, it's Brunson's decision-making and ability to run an offense that are so convincing. He's averaging 19.3 points and 4.6 assists without taking bad shots (61.1 percent 2PT) or turning the ball over (10.6 TO percentage).
Even if limited athleticism suggests his ceiling isn't high, Brunson's skill level, basketball IQ and elite college success, both individual and team, should be enough to justify first-round consideration.
Omari Spellman, Donte DiVincenzo Will Be Prospects to Watch in 2019
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Villanova is led by Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges, both of whom seem likely to enter the NBA draft. But scouts will continue showing up next year with Omari Spellman and Donte DiVincenzo expected to take on bigger roles.
Spellman, who is 6'9 ½" and 245 pounds, has improved his conditioning and jump shot. In the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, he combined for 29 points, 14 rebounds and five blocks, showing the ability to play inside and out. His shooting is starting to look like the real deal after he went 4-of-7 from three against West Virginia and 2-of-4 against Texas Tech.
Despite his thick frame, he's moving well defensively, and he's shown he can attack a closeout with the dribble.
DiVincenzo had his best game of the tournament against Alabama (18 points, five assists) in the second round, and though he struggled over the weekend, he still had flashes of athleticism, playmaking and shot-making that could eventually create NBA interest.
Neither player has a strong-enough case right now for the 2018 draft. But after another year as Villanova's top options, Spellman and DiVincenzo could find 2019's first-round radar.
Stats courtesy of Synergy Sports and Sports Reference.
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