2007-08 NBA Preview: Northwest Division

Northwest Division

1) Utah Jazz

As is the case with any Jerry Sloan-coached team, execution is the key to Utah’s success.

Fortunately for them, Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are two of the brightest young superstars in the NBA.

However, the Jazz are also one of the least athletic teams in the league, and until they rectify that situation, they won't be a serious contender for the championship.

With all due respect to Chris Paul, Williams is the game’s best young point guard, and after Steve Nash and Jason Kidd cycle out of the league in a few years, he could be the best in the NBA.

His automatic long-range jumper makes him lethal on screens-and-rolls. If he isn’t picked up, he’s also excellent at finishing strong on the run, or dropping passes off to the roller or to the various cutters and spot-up shooters spacing the court.

Most importantly of all, Williams has the patience of a 10-year veteran in waiting for a play to develop.  With all the complicated sets and plays Jerry Sloan employs, and with the constant pressure he puts on his point guards, Williams’ mastery is doubly impressive.

Carlos Boozer is a perfect screening-and-rolling complement to Williams, and has an unstoppable midrange jumper of his own. Boozer prefers to unleash shots and start drives from either the left baseline or the high post. He's also a solid defender and a menacing rebounder.

The rest of the team is more of a construction crew than a basketball squad.

Matt Harpring will cut harder than you, run off screens harder than you, box out harder than you, set screens harder than you, and defend harder than you. He has the uncanny ability to get opponents in foul trouble simply by cutting off the ball, and has a deadly jumper coming off screens.

However, Harpring is a below-average finisher, and can’t keep up with some of the more athletic players he's asked to guard.

Mehmet Okur is a long-range bomber with good defensive and rebounding techniques. But if his jumper isn’t falling, his lack of athleticism makes him a hindrance rather than an asset.

In a perfect world, he’d be a second-stringer, brought into the game to be a matchup problem. In this world, he doesn’t do enough as a starter to allow the Jazz to take the next step forward.

Gordon Giricek is a spot-up shooter with no athleticism.

Jarron Collins will bang around and excel at grunt work, but his offensive repertoire is limited to tip-ins and put-backs.

Paul Milsap is a rebounding vacuum with limited offensive skills.

Despite his inflated view of himself, Andrei Kirilenko is strictly either (a) a weakside defender who's adept at blocking shots and poaching passing lanes, or (b) an anchor at the top of a zone who gums up the perimeter offense.

He can run, and he can jump, but unless his wife is giving him permission, he isn’t a great scorer.

And therein lies the problem with the Jazz: All of their players have definite uses, but in the playoffs, when teams have to go to their third or fourth options, do the Jazz have any?

Utah can create points just by executing their sets, but when Williams and Boozer are stymied, do the Jazz have any other player who can create a shot for himself with the shot clock running down?

Worse, with the departure of Derek Fisher, the Jazz lose not only a steady backup point guard, but a clutch shooter who always stepped his game up when it mattered.

Can Morris Almond (almost certainly not) or Ronnie Brewer (possibly) accelerate his growth enough to be the third option the Jazz need?

If not, they’ll have trouble against teams that don’t lose their cool against Utah's patient approach.

2) Denver Nuggets

Denver has a lot of explosive pieces that make them a dangerous team in the Western Conference.

Unfortunately, the team is still far too undisciplined to pose any real threat of winning a championship.

First, the positives.

Over the past year, Carmelo Anthony has matured into an unstoppable force, especially since he's now able to beat double teams by patiently reading the defense and making appropriate out passes.

Not coincidentally, Anthony’s growth has been helped in large part by the acquisition of Allen Iverson. Having Iverson on the other side of the court keeps defenses from ganging up on ‘Melo, and Iverson gives the Nuggets the second scorer they’ve needed so desperately the last few years.

If he ever stays healthy, Nene will become one of the better post scorers in the league.

Marcus Camby remains one of the premier weakside shot blockers in the NBA, and his shot-blocking and rebounding help ignite a potent Denver fast break.

But while there are plenty of positives, the Nuggets have too many flaws to survive the rigors of the postseason.

For starters, any team with Allen Iverson as a starting point guard is doomed to simplicity. Because of Iverson’s penchant for constantly overhandling and only passing when he sniffs assists, he's limited to running rudimentary offensive sets.

As often as Iverson fires away from long range, he must think he’s an exceptional jump shooter—but he isn’t. And because Iverson and Carmelo aren’t used to deferring to anybody, neither of them really knows how to play without the ball.

In fact, despite their magnificent point-making talents, rarely will Iverson and Anthony run any plays in tandem with each other. Instead, they’re more likely to be on opposite sides of the court, with little in-game interaction.

They just aren’t synchronous talents.

Also, there's the issue of defense. J.R Smith, Iverson, and Carmelo form the worst perimeter defensive lineup in the league, with Chucky Atkins and Linas Kleiza not much better.

Yakhouba Diawara is the only respectable defensive wing on the roster, but his offensive game is so limited that he’s a liability on the other end of the floor.

Finally, there's the issue of toughness.

Iverson’s toughness is well documented, but he was so flustered by San Antonio’s defense that he missed practically every layup and short jumper he attempted in the Nuggets' first-round loss.

Camby may be a great help-side shot blocker, but he can be roughed around in the post by bigger, stronger opponents, and his hunger for blocked shots often leaves him so far out of position that simple drives and dishes can lead to opposing dunks.

Camby and Steven Hunter have no chance to defend the stronger post players in the league, and Nene is too injury-prone to be relied upon.

Many think that Kenyon Martin can help solve the Nuggets' toughness problem. The same Kenyon Martin whose only skills involve running, dunking, and yelling? The same Kenyon Martin who’s a lion at home but a poodle on the road? The same Kenyon Martin who’ll bully the ugly kid sisters of the league, but who when matched up against prime competition will cower on the bench?

When the season starts, it seems almost certain that K-Mart will retake his customary spot on the injured list.

And unfortunately for Nuggets fans, when the season progresses into June, the Nuggets will retake their customary spots in front of their TVs.

3) Seattle Supersonics

Amidst all the turmoil surrounding the Sonics, this much is certain: There won't be any playoff berth this season.

But that doesn’t mean the future isn’t promising.

If Kevin Durant is the once-in-a-generation scorer and rebounder he’s projected to be, he’ll have every opportunity to showcase his talents, learn from his mistakes, and develop his game in order to be a force in the league.

Durant is still woefully thin, but a year of grinding, combined with the diet and weight regimens administered by Seattle's training staff, should allow the youngster to greatly increase his physical capabilities.

He already has the leaping ability to be a fantastic rebounder. Now it’s just about developing his body, and learning the proper techniques.

Scoring shouldn’t be an issue; Durant's already projected to become a 20-PPG scorer. The only question is how he'll get his points.

Will he earn them by successfully attacking the rim? Or because of his lack of strength, will he be unsuccessful or unwilling to score tough points in the paint? Will he become strictly a jump-shooter? Can he play without the ball? Can he pass? Can he learn how to attack in complicated sets?

He’ll have an entire year to figure these things out.

As for the rest of the roster, Luke Ridnour is smart enough to know how to run an offense, and athletic enough to get to the basket and to knock down jumpers. Earl Watson is a much better defender and open-court player than Ridnour, but much less effective in a half-court setting.

Delonte West, Mickael Gelabale, Damien Wilkins, and Jeff Green are all youngsters who’ll vie for the wing spots when Durant isn’t playing the three.

Nick Collison is an earnest overachiever, while Chris Wilcox is an athletic underachiever. Robert Swift and Johan Petro are projects, and Kurt Thomas is an old sage whose experience and post defense will be boons to the development of the young Seattle frontcourt.

Expect the Sonics, as all young teams do, to try to get out and run as much as possible. Expect a lack of defense, a lot of offense, and a fair share of growing pains. Expect the Sonics to experiment with different lineups, different strategies, and different methods of utilizing Kevin Durant’s skills.

The Sonics can afford to experiment. Their future is more important than their present.

4) Portland Trail Blazers

Like the Sonics, Portland will use this season to prepare for the future. The team has already caught a few bad breaks with the news of Greg Oden’s microfracture surgery, Brandon Roy’s oversized heel, and Darius Miles’ return to good health.

As the Blazers will be a huge longshot to make the playoffs this year, it’s been recommended that, aside from Oden taking a season off to repair his knee, Roy should take the time to shave his left heel so as to prevent chronic pain and injuries from hindering his growth.

Of course, it’s easy for me to offer advice about a shaving a bone when it isn’t my own. But if Roy doesn’t take care of the problem, pain and injury may become a routine part of his career.

And despite his improving back, there's no reason a selfish malcontent like Darius Miles should be around the new-image Blazers. Like Zach Randolph, he should be banished so the Blazers can fully embrace a pure youth movement.

LaMarcus Aldridge is evolving into a quick, strong post defender. His offensive game is still raw, but he should be given every chance to see if Portland can run an offense through him—especially if Roy is out for a considerable amount of time.

Channing Frye can use the season to figure out if he can offer a team something more than being a soft-bodied, soft-minded jump shooter.

Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw are still puppies, and will refine their games with each opportunity they’re given.

James Jones is a streaky-shooting gunner whose three-point potency will keep the Blazers in many a game over the course of a season.

With four point guards on the roster, the Blazers can use the season to determine if Jarrett Jack is their future starter or their future backup, and whether or not Taurean Green, Sergio Rodriguez, and Steve Blake are a part of their plans.

With Zach Randolph no longer around to provide comfortable scoring, the Blazers won't have an appreciably larger number of wins this season than they did in '06-'07. But progress isn’t always measured in wins.

Give the roster a few years to heal and grow, and watch the Blazers start making noise in 2010.

5) Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves will probably hit rock bottom this year before beginning the rebound back to respectability.

At least the T-Wolves now have a future after the Kevin Garnett trade, with Gerald Green and Al Jefferson to build around.

Jefferson is a potential All-Star and a reliable scorer in the pivot. In time, he could develop into the sort of powerful post scorer that anchors a playoff team.

He still needs to improve his passing, his midrange shooting, and his defense, but that should all come with experience.

If Jefferson is determined enough to work hard—and is wise enough to learn during his minutes on the court—he'll be an important part of the future in Minnesota.

Green also has the tools to be an All-Star: tremendous athleticism and deadly shooting range. He still needs to take better shots and play better defense, but those flaws are common to most young players. 

When he learns that he’ll get more responsibility on offense when he gives more of an effort on defense, and when he learns that he’ll get more opportunities on offense by showcasing better shot selection, Green will be ready to become the starring wing on a very successful ball club.

The rest of the year should be dedicated to answering questions:

Are Corey Brewer’s slashing, shooting, and defending as good as advertised? Is Randy Foye the answer at point guard? Will Sebastian Telfair ever learn to run an offense? Will Rashad McCants ever grow up? Will Ricky Davis be a problem? Are Craig Smith and Ryan Gomes too similar to share playing time? Who will be the center and backup power forward?

Besides Green, Jefferson, and Brewer, every player on the roster may be gone before next season starts.

As it stands, Mark Blount will be the center by default. Ricky Davis’ one-dimensional scoring may be a boost in games where the Wolves are close. Greg Buckner's defensive expertise will be a boon for Green and Brewer.

If Green, Jefferson, and Brewer evolve, the Timberwolves may have a promising future. That alone should be reason for T-Wolves fans to brave what is likely to be a very cold winter.