NCAA Tournament 2018: 1st-Round Upset Picks to Add to Your Bracket

The 2017-18 men's college basketball campaign was so chaotic that picking chalk for this year's Big Dance might qualify as bold.

Granted, the selection committee seeds clubs based on their bodies of work, so even if you don't agree with all of their assessments, you still know they were based in logic.

But considering how often upsets became regular occurrences in the regular season, why should anyone assume the tournament will be any different? That's not a recommendation to think this is the year a No. 16 seed finally topples a No. 1, but it is a way of saying don't marry yourself to every team's seed.

Upsets will happen. The following three underdogs have the best chances to orchestrate one in the opening round.

View Bleacher Report's Printable Bracket here.

No. 11 Loyola-Chicago over No. 6 Miami (South Region)

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The Hurricanes have been playing without top rebounder, passer and defender Bruce Brown Jr. since late January (foot), so the likelihood he'll miss the tourney hardly comes as a surprise.

That said, Miami's uninspiring play down the stretch without him makes his absence loom large. After winning their first three games he missed, the Hurricanes went just 4-4 after that, including a 17-point loss to North Carolina in the ACC tournament quarterfinals.

The Ramblers, meanwhile, sprinted to the finish line with 10 consecutive victories. They've lost once (in 18 games) since Jan. 3, and their non-conference schedule included a road win over Florida. Loyola-Chicago's 24th-ranked defense could cause fits for a Miami attack that didn't have any player average 12 points per game.

Tack on five double-digit scorers—three of whom are 39-plus-percent snipers from three—and ESPN's Jay Bilas sees the ingredients for an upset (subscription required):

"Loyola-Chicago is led by Clayton Custer, a 6-1 guard who started his career at Iowa State. Marques Townes is a tough Jersey kid who transferred from Farleigh Dickinson, and Donte Ingram is a 6-6 shooter who hit 66 3-point field goals this season and 162 for his career. Miami is the bigger and more talented team, but the Ramblers are fully capable of pulling the upset."

If any double-digit seed can make a Sweet 16 run, the Ramblers might have the best chances of doing it.

No. 12 New Mexico State vs. No. 5 Clemson (Midwest Region)

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The Tigers were even colder than the 'Canes closing out the year with five losses over their final eight games. And while each of those defeats came against tournament teams, they highlighted the struggles Clemson has had without second-leading scorer and rebounder Donte Grantham, who was lost to an ACL tear in late January.

"Since then, they are 2-6 against tournament teams," Sporting News' Mike DeCourcy wrote. "NMSU is a tournament team, one that has one 85 percent of its games—including against the Miami Hurricanes and Davidson. Yikes."

New Mexico State is strong on defense (14th in efficiency) and the glass (tied for fifth in rebound margin), which can help it overcome some offensive concerns.

The Aggies are an awful shooting team (33.3 percent from three), which makes them ultra-reliant on senior guard Zach Lofton. He's a major contributor (19.8 points per game, 38.2 percent from three), but this roster sometimes forces him to be a one-man army. New Mexico State only has one other double-digit scorer (senior forward Jemerrio Jones), and its second-through-fifth scorers all shoot below 33 percent outside.

But the Aggies will be a problem if they can penetrate the paint, and those offensive issues didn't prevent them from putting together a 28-5 record.

No. 13 Charleston vs. No. 4 Auburn (Midwest Region)

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Keeping our pattern going, the Tigers are another high seed with unsettling voids and a worrisome close to their season.

Sophomores Danjel Purifoy and Austin Wiley haven't played all season following suspensions amid concerns about their eligibility related to the FBI investigation into bribery in college basketball. Fellow second-year big man Anfernee McLemore—the team's top shot-blocker—was lost in mid-February to a dislocated ankle.

Auburn dropped four of its last six games, including an egg-laying 18-point beating at the hands of Alabama in the SEC tournament quarterfinals.

Charleston, on the other hand, has won 14 of its last 15 games. The Cougars were regular-season co-champs of the Colonial Athletic Association, then they survived an overtime thriller with Northeastern in the CAA conference title game.

Charleston boasts three prolific scorers in sophomore guard Grant Riller (18.7 points per game), senior guard Joe Chealey (18.5) and junior forward Jarrell Brantley (17.0). The Cougars don't beat themselves with turnovers (fourth-fewest in the country), which is a key to surviving the Tigers.

The key for Charleston will be controlling tempo. It has neither the depth nor the athleticism to win a track meet with Auburn. But ESPN analyst Seth Greenberg thinks the Cougars have the best odds of advancing among the 13 seeds:

If this game is played at Charleston's preferred style, this could be the biggest upset of the first round.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of KenPom.com, ESPN.com and NCAA.com.