March Madness Bracket 2018: Odds and Predictions for Top 1st-Round Games

Whether you're pulling for chaos or chalk, you might have most of your first-round focus for the NCAA tournament on the high-seed favorites and low-seed spoilers.

But the best early action typically takes place in the middle, where similar squads square off in 8-9 or 7-10 matchups. Chances are the winners won't be picked for long runs—most won't have them escaping the opening weekend—so some might fall into the trap of overlooking what could be the most thrilling contests.

Last year, four first-round tilts were decided by two points or less. The highest seed involved in any of those contests were the fifth-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The others came from the 6-11, 7-10 and 8-9 pairings.

These might not be bracket-busters, but if you're just looking to watch good hoops this weekend, focus on the following three matchups—presented with odds (via OddsShark) and picks against the spread.

View Bleacher Report's Printable Bracket here

No. 10 Oklahoma (even) Over No. 7 Rhode Island

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Forget about whether or not the Sooners deserved their invitation to the Big Dance. The selection committee made its call, and Oklahoma has the chance to change its late-season trajectory.

There's no reason to think the Sooners are about to embark on a deep run after dropping 11 of their final 15 outings. But can they get one game against a Rams team that also ended its campaign on a (smaller-scale) tailspin of four losses in eight games?

Well, it's like the old adage goes—if oddsmakers give you a coin-flip, take the side with the national leader in points and assists.

No, Trae Young didn't shoot as well or value the basketball late in the year as he had during his blistering opening stretch. But his per-game averages are 27.4 points and 8.8 assists. That's almost as many points as Rhode Island's top two scorers produce (30.3 between Jared Terrell and E.C. Matthews), and he's averaging more dimes than the Rams' best two distributors (7.9 from Jeff Dowtin and Jarvis Garrett combined).

There is risk with both teams given how they finished, but they don't have equal ceilings. Rhode Island's best wins came against Seton Hall, Providence and St. Bonaventure. Oklahoma picked off Wichita State, TCU, Texas Tech and Kansas. Oh, and KenPom.com's rankings place the Sooners (47th) over the Rams (49th).

No. 11 Loyola-Chicago (+1) Over No. 6 Miami 

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Head coach Porter Moser's Ramblers are becoming such a trendy upset pick, you're forgiven if you forget they are the lower-seeded squad here.

Bleacher Report's C.J. Moore likes them. Same goes for ESPN's Jay Bilas. Ditto for Marc Tracy and Zach Schonbrun of the New York Times.

As the point spread indicates, these teams don't look like they are five seeds apart. In fact, KenPom only puts five teams between them, with the Hurricanes slotted 36th and the Ramblers at 42nd. One can assume the gap would be even smaller had Miami played the season without top rebounder, distributor and defender Bruce Brown Jr., who won't play in this contest due to a foot injury.

Loyola-Chicago is coming in searing hot, having won 10 in a row and 17 of its last 18. It owns a non-conference win over sixth-seeded (then-fifth-ranked) Florida. It plays the 24th-most efficient defense in the nation. It has five double-digit scorers, three of whom shoot over 39 percent outside.

"We're ready to set the world on fire," Moser said, per Shannon Ryan of the Chicago Tribune.

No. 10 Butler (even) Over No. 7 Arkansas

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Savvy TV viewers will get some neck exercises in before the Bulldogs and Razorbacks cross paths Friday. This could have the back-and-forth style of a tennis match, as both Arkansas (81.1 points per game, tied for 35th) and Butler (79.1, 56th) score at top-60 rates.

"Obviously, we love the up-tempo," Arkansas coach Mike Anderson said, per David Woods of the Indianapolis Star. "So for the fans, you get two teams that like to score. I think the fans are the winner."

Anderson's group is gaining steam, picking up eight wins over its last 11 games, including triumphs over Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn and Florida. Arkansas shoots 40.1 percent from three (tied for 14th) and might have a future NBA lottery pick down low in freshman Daniel Gafford (11.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 blocks).

But the Razorbacks rank 103rd in defensive efficiency. And that feels like a fatal flaw in this matchup, given that Butler once put 101 points on previously unbeaten Villanova, giving the top-seeded Wildcats their first of only four losses.

Senior forward Kelan Martin is special, a nightly supplier of 20.8 points and 6.2 rebounds. Sophomore guard Kamar Baldwin is exciting and coming off a 32-point performance in the Big East tournament. If just one more member of the supporting cast shows up—Paul Jorgensen (58 triples) and Sean McDermott (43) are capable shot-makers—that should be enough to get Butler into the second round.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of KenPom.com and ESPN.com.