March Madness 2018: Safe Picks, Predictions for Riskiest Teams in NCAA Bracket

Nonconference, conference, conference tournaments and Selection Sunday: They're all behind us. All that's left in the 2017-18 college basketball season is March Madness, the Big Dance or the NCAA Tournament.

Whatever you want to call it, it's here.

The focus is now on the bracket. Which teams are the safest picks to get through the first weekend? Who represents the most risk? Being able to answer those questions can lead to domination of your friends or family pool.

We'll set the table with Sports Reference's Simple Rating System (a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule) for each team discussed here. Then, we'll go a little deeper.

Safe Picks for the Opening Weekend

No. 1 seeds won't get much space devoted to them here. Their wins in the opening round are pretty much a given.

A No. 16 has never advanced, and it's safe to say Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Kansas keep that streak alive. And there's only one potential 1-8 matchup in the second round that looks real intriguing, but we'll spend more time on that later.

So, which teams can we call safe bets while still staying out of the no-brainer category?

Michigan State

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SRS: 5th

Round-of-64 Opponent SRS: Bucknell (112th)

Round-of-32 Opponent SRS: TCU/Arizona State/Syracuse (19th/32nd/51st)

The Michigan State Spartans went 29-4 overall, 16-2 in the Big 10, boast two surefire NBA players in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Miles Bridges and enter the tourney with a No. 3 seed.

In fact, Jackson was the No. 3 prospect in recent big boards for both Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman and ESPN's Jonathan Givony.

"Jackson has allowed opponents to shoot just 20 percent at the basket against him, the lowest in the country among defenders who've faced at least 30 attempts in rim protection," Wasserman wrote. "His 14.8 block percentage ranks second in the country, and he's shown he can slide and defend away from the basket."

That ability to protect the rim has led to a ridiculous Defensive Box Plus-Minus of 10.6 for the 6'11" freshman, second among players with at least 500 minutes this season, per Sports Reference.

And he's anchoring one of the nation's top defenses. The Spartans allow 94.5 points per 100 possessions, 12th among 351 schools this season, according to Sports Reference.

That should be more than enough to get by No. 14 Bucknell in the first round and No. 6 TCU (assuming they advance) in the second.

But let's assume it isn't. The Spartans have plenty of offense too. Their 118.1 points per 100 possessions ranks sixth, and that other NBA player can put the ball in the hole.

For the second season in a row, Bridges is averaging 16.9 points with a true shooting percentage bordering .600. He's more than capable of carrying the offensive load, especially for a team that can lock down on the other end.

Duke

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SRS: 2nd

Round-of-64 Opponent SRS: Iona (147th)

Round-of-32 Opponent SRS: Oklahoma/Rhode Island (38th/52nd)

It may seem like a bit of a cop-out to profile a No. 2 seed as a "safe bet," but Duke has had some early exits in recent years, and Trae Young will entice a lot of viewers if he has a big performance in a win over Rhode Island.

Don't fall into that trap.

No. 1-seeded Villanova is the only team in the NCAA with a better SRS than Duke, who has multiple blue-chip freshmen and one experienced upperclassman.

And say what you will about Grayson Allen's seemingly out-of-control lower body, but the senior does have a national title and an All-Tournament Team nod from 2015 under his belt.

Combine the lessons he's learned with the talent of Marvin Bagley, Gary Trent, Wendell Carter and Trevon Duval, and it's hard to see Duke losing in the round of 32, as it did last season.

Bagley, specifically, could be the key. The ACC Player of the Year is averaging an absurd 21.1 points, 11.5 rebounds and one block heading into the tournament. And CBS' Gary Parrish thinks he's the top player in the loaded 2018 NBA Draft.

"So the 6-11 freshman has proven to be both a great prospect and terrific player—and the fact that he plays with great energy, almost always, is another positive sign," Parrish wrote. "As I've said and written many times, I understand and respect the arguments for Ayton and Doncic. But I've forever preferred Bagley, and nothing that's happened this season has altered my position."

Risky Picks

Here, we'll look for a couple teams that are seeded pretty high but have a decent shot of going down at some point during the tournament's opening weekend.

Xavier

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SRS: 10th

Round-of-64 Opponent SRS: Texas Southern/North Carolina Central (260th/317th)

Round-of-32 Opponent SRS: Florida State/Missouri (33rd/36th)

Yes, an earlier paragraph said there wouldn't be much space devoted to No. 1 seeds, but Xavier deserves a little—and not for the best reasons.

No, the Musketeers aren't going to be the first No. 1 to lose to a 16, but there's a chance for real problems in the round of 32.

Or, maybe just one problem: Michael Porter Jr.

Porter missed most of his freshman season with a back injury, but he came back just in time for the Big Dance. If he's healthy enough to get anywhere near the status he enjoyed coming into college, Xavier could be in trouble.

Rivals listed Porter as the No. 1 prospect from this recruiting class, ahead of the likes of Bagley, DeAndre Ayton and Mohamed Bamba. But missing the season with an injury has moved him down draft boards. Now, he has something to prove as he heads into this tournament.

"He needs to go crazy in the tournament and prove his high school flaws are fixable," an NBA scout told Wasserman. "I didn't think he defended at all, for instance. And I thought he played small around the rim."

If the 6'10" combo forward is disproving those sentiments over the next few days, Missouri has a real shot to get out of the first weekend.

Wichita State

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SRS: 17th

Round-of-64 Opponent SRS: Marshall (118th)

Round-of-32 Opponent SRS: West Virginia/Missouri (9th/91st)

Over the last several years, Wichita State has established itself as a perennial college basketball power, but it's tough to see this No. 4 seed getting past West Virginia in the second round.

The Shockers had just the 74th-toughest schedule in the NCAA this season, while West Virginia's was 26th. And Wichita State's point differential was only one point better.

Landry Shamet and Shaquille Morris have been great this season, but West Virginia has an experienced backcourt that can really go.

Seniors Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles averaged a combined 30 points, 9.8 assists and 7.6 rebounds during the regular season. And although much of this article has been dedicated to freshman who will be in the NBA next season, March is often dominated by juniors and seniors.