March Madness 2018: Sleeper Picks with Bracket-Busting Potential

There's no such thing as a safe March Madness bracket.

While some overzealous daredevils will gamble on a No. 16 seed shocking the world, other tepid participants will err too cautiously and pick every favorite. The best brackets will find a middle ground.

It may seem prudent to avoid peril at all costs, but the men's NCAA tournament never unfolds according to plan. Picking LIU Brooklyn to make the Sweet 16 is reckless. Opting for a No. 11 seed with at least one standout strength, however, makes for shrewd game theory.

Higher seeds will get booted in the opening round, so the optimal bracket requires some risk. These sleepers have the potential to last longer than their allotted seeds suggest.

View Bleacher Report's Printable Bracket here

Loyola-Chicago

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After breezing through the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, Loyola-Chicago will go dancing for the first time since 1985. Don't be shocked if the Ramblers make up for lost time.

Skeptics will point to a soft schedule, but the Ramblers rank No. 41 in KenPom.com's overall efficiency rating and No. 21 in RPI. They wield a 10-game winning streak and knocked off Florida on the road in their biggest test of the season.

The small-conference squad also boasts two key traits to lasting the gauntlet: defense and shooting. Only four Division I schools have yielded fewer points per game than Loyola-Chicago's 62.2. Although the outmatched competition bolstered that number, its 96.1 adjusted defensive rating places No. 24 on KenPom.

Led by guards Donte Ingram and Clayton Custer, the Ramblers enter the tournament shooting 39.8 percent from three-point range and 50.7 percent from within the arc.

Marques Townes, Aundre Jackson and Cameron Krutwig all have tallied field-goal percentages above 50.0, giving their balanced attack five players averaging double-digit points.

They drew an opening tilt against the Miami Hurricanes, who went 3-6 against schools with a top-50 RPI. While they strung together four consecutive wins before getting ousted in the ACC tournament by North Carolina, those triumphs came by a combined eight points.

As noted by The Ringer's Rodger Sherman, a Ramblers victory would hardly typify a Cinderella story:

Getting past Tennessee in the next round would prove a tougher task, but Loyola's balance and depth make a Sweet 16 appearance possible.

New Mexico State

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New Mexico State drew a tough opening opponent in Clemson, which enters Friday's matchup No. 8 in KenPom's adjusted defense. Yet the Western Athletic Conference champion is the perfect No. 12 seed to back.

Slotted six spots behind the Tigers in defensive efficiency, the Aggies can match their ACC adversary's strength. Although untested by elite competitors, they're 28-5 with a 12.1-point average point differential.

They're also ferocious on the glass, grabbing 41.5 rebounds per game behind Jemerrio Jones' 13.2 per game. Per the Associated Press' Adam Soboleski, via the Washington Post, head coach Chris Jans did not express concern over his squad's placement prior to Selection Sunday.

"They seed us where they seed us," Jans said. "Our guys are going to fight and be a tough matchup for anyone."

Seth Davis of CBS Sports identified New Mexico State as a team to monitor after it clinched an automatic bid by winning the WAC tournament:

They lack the perimeter shooting possessed by most trendy underdog selections, but the Aggies can wreck brackets if Jones and Zach Lofton generate enough interior offense.

UCLA/St. Bonaventure

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Florida is on upset alert regardless of who wins the First Four contest between UCLA and St. Bonaventure.

Having registered 81.9 points per game with KenPom's 23rd-best offense, the Bruins pose a larger threat to the Gators. Before running out of steam in overtime, they nearly defeated Arizona for the second time this year during the Pac-12 tournament.

An uptempo offense and 38.3 three-point percentage creates a wide array of volatility. They could flame out, or junior Aaron Holiday could lead them to the triumphant side of some shootouts by finding a hot hand this week.

Don't count on the Bonnies, who received an opportunity despite Davidson snapping a 13-game winning streak and taking the Atlantic 10 title on Sunday. Senior guards Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley provide a potent one-two scoring punch.

Florida, meanwhile, already has some sketchy losses to SEC laggards Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. The No. 6 seed is only 15-12 against teams within the top 150 of RPI, and its rebounding woes especially present an opening for UCLA, which ranks No. 27 in defensive boards (911).

Pick this pairing over Florida in hopes of UCLA prevailing, but don't lose all hope if St. Bonaventure advances into the first round.

Note: All RPI data obtained from ESPN.com and CBS Sports.