NCAA Tournament 2018: Bubble Teams That Will Miss Out on March Madness

With apologies to the Masters, the true American sports tradition unlike any other is listening to analysts scream in defense of (or against) NCAA Division I men's basketball bubble teams that did or did not make the tournament. It's a fun debate that fills up some airtime before everyone looks forward to the actual matchups the following day.

One thing is for sure, however: Bubble teams can never be counted out. For example, George Mason made the NCAA tournament as a No. 11 seed in 2006 and found itself in the Final Four after defeating heavily favored Connecticut in the Elite Eight. VCU was a No. 11 seed (and a First Four team) in 2011 when it made a remarkable Final Four run as well.

Teams whose bubbles popped in those years must have wondered whether they could have been the next GMU or VCU had their squads been picked for the tournament. It's not an ideal situation to be in when the difference between teams that do and do not make the tournament is so razor-thin.

Here's a look at three who may be on the outside looking in this season.

Arizona State

The Sun Devils started the year on fire, winning their first 12 games. However, they ended the season as one of the colder NCAA tournament hopefuls in the nation, dropping five of their last six. Their lone win in that span came against Cal, which finished last in the Pac-12.

On the plus side, ASU can point to some monster wins against Xavier and Kansas, who will likely be named as No. 1 seeds in the tournament. On the flip side, ASU lost twice to Oregon, Colorado and Stanford—teams that will very likely end up in the NIT. A defeat to Oregon State also doesn't help.

ASU did finish the year with 20 wins, but it went just 8-10 in conference play before losing in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament to Colorado. With an RPI rating of 66, look for Arizona State to head to the NIT.

Louisville

Like Arizona State, Louisville did not finish the year on a high note, losing five of its last seven games heading into Selection Sunday. The Cardinals have no wins against top-50 teams in the RPI, although they don't have any defeats to any team below No. 62 either.

Louisville's strength of schedule ranks No. 14 in the nation, and an RPI ranking of 39 is certainly going to help its cause. The committee may also consider the fact that Louisville was literally tenths of a second away from beating No. 1 Virginia in Charlottesville before losing in one of the most painful ways imaginable.

That being said, it's hard to overlook the way Louisville finished the season, coupled with the fact that it doesn't have any signature victories on its resume. Like the Sun Devils, the Cardinals are likely headed to the NIT.

Middle Tennessee

MTSU has been a Cinderella story for the past two seasons and looked poised to be one again this year, but a loss to a team outside the top 200 in RPI (Southern Miss) to end the season is not going to assist its NCAA tournament cause.

The Blue Raiders challenged themselves with a tough schedule thanks to games against power-conference teams Auburn, Miami and USC (the former two will make the NCAA tournament field, while USC is likely on the right side of the bubble per the latest Bracket Matrix projections). MTSU hung tough in all three games before losing each by single digits.

Middle Tennessee does have four wins against top-100 RPI teams, and a 24-7 overall record (and 16-2 mark in Conference USA play) is undoubtedly impressive. But two losses to Marshall and another to Belmont in addition to the aforementioned Southern Miss defeat may put the Blue Raiders on the wrong side of the bubble.