An Auburn Perspective on the LSU-Auburn Game: Creature vs. Creature

The Auburn-LSU rivalry is absolutely one of the most unique and dynamic rivalries in the country. So when Auburn travels to Baton Rouge Saturday night to play ninth-ranked LSU on ESPN2 at 6:30 p.m., expect the unexpected is all I can tell you.

The two sets of Tigers are always battling for the SEC West, and there are never any shortages of dramatics when these two get together.

From the "Earthquake Game" in 1988 which LSU won 7-6, to the "Interception Game" in 1994 where Auburn came back with six fourth-quarter interceptions to win 30-26, this rivalry is where "crazy" happens every year.

LSU's win last season broke an eight-game winning streak by the home team in the series, and eight of the last 14 games have been decided by a touchdown or less, including the last five in a row.

This season, the Tigers from Auburn come in at 5-2, but on a two-game losing streak and in dire need of some confidence and a win.

Auburn had their sights set on a really good season with a 5-0 start, but with Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama left after LSU, the Tigers could really use an upset of LSU to get back on track in a big way.

Here's a breakdown of how the Auburn Tigers can win and lose this game Saturday night.

Auburn wins if...

First, Chris Todd is feeling mentally and physically ready to go. There's no doubt that he is having some issues with his arm strength, especially later in the ballgame.

Todd had a solid first five games, but the last two has shown real deficiencies in his arm on certain throws. Auburn needs a healthy Todd and a confident one to beat a good LSU defense.

Second, the Auburn defensive line has to play their best game of the season. Auburn is second to last in the SEC, giving up 181 rushing yards per game.

Fortunately, LSU has yet to make a commitment to the run, averaging only 123 yards per game on the ground with Charles Scott.

Look for LSU to make a commitment to the run Saturday night, including Russell Shepard in the wildcat, a formation that Kentucky had much success with in Auburn last Saturday.

Third, cut down on penalties and turnovers. Auburn committed 10 penalties against Kentucky, including eight in the fourth quarter and six on one drive alone.

Auburn has to play more disciplined, especially on offense. They don't have the playmakers to overcome being behind the chains against a very good defense.

LSU has intercepted a pass in eight straight games, which doesn't bode well for Chris Todd who is having trouble with his arm strength at times.

Auburn needs to stay ahead of the chains and not give the ball away, Auburn's thin defense can't handle any extra possessions.

Auburn loses if...

Just like Chris Todd is needed to win the game, Auburn will most certainly lose if Todd plays like he has the last two games. If he continues to throw into double coverage, LSU will not let him get away with that.

Todd has to play extremely smart and not give the talented LSU secondary a chance to make plays, much like he did against a good Tennessee secondary.

If Auburn's thin linebacking corps continues to have to take on offensive linemen downfield, look for Charles Scott to have a breakout game against the porous Auburn defense.

Scott will pound the Tigers early and often if Auburn doesn't show the ability to at least slow down the LSU run game.

Also, watch out for Russell Shepard. Like I mentioned before, Kentucky's Randall Cobb had over 100 yards rushing against Auburn from the wildcat, look for Shepard to play a big part in the run game Saturday night.

Third, if Auburn's Wes Byrum has a busy night, then it will be a long night for Auburn. Auburn had trouble against the best defense they've played so far this year in Tennessee, scoring touchdowns in the red zone.

If that continues against an equally talented LSU defense, the Auburn defense won't be able to hold up all night.

Auburn's X Factor Could Be...

Onterrio McCalebb.

McCalebb is a true freshman that has added another dimension to the Auburn offense when he's been healthy. McCalebb is not a big back, but he brings tremendous speed to the table, and that will be needed for Auburn to beat LSU.

In Auburn's five wins, McCalebb averaged 83 yards rushing and 90 total kickoff return yards per game. In Auburn's two losses, McCalebb had been battling an ankle sprain and only averaged 22 yards rushing and 10 total kickoff return yards per game.

Prediction Time

Going into Baton Rouge at night is never easy, we all know that. The last two trips Auburn has made to LSU they have been right there at the end, losing by three in 2005 with five missed field goals, and in 2007 with LSU scoring a game winning touchdown with one second left on the clock.

Auburn has won nine of their last 14 games against AP top ten teams, so they do have a history of playing well against top competition.

On the downside, Auburn hasn't won in Baton Rouge since 1999, when an unranked Auburn team came in as a big underdog and shocked the Bengal Tigers 41-7 in Tommy Tuberville's first season on the Plains.

Bottom line, LSU's defense is playing very well and will likely hold Auburn to under 24 points Saturday night in Baton Rouge.

If the Auburn can't be +2 in the turnover margin, I'm not sure they will be able to stop LSU enough to win the game.

In the end, I think LSU, at home, will win the game 27-17, and Auburn will be looking at a real must win type of game when they come back home to face Ole Miss next Saturday.

For the LSU perspective of this game check out Justin Goar's take here