March Madness Bracket 2018: Betting Advice, Historical Trends and Predictions

Men's college basketball is officially down to 68 teams. The selection committee announced its picks Sunday, featuring groans from the likes of Notre Dame and cheers from Arizona State and others that snuck in. 

In the mere hours since the committee announced its selections, thousands—if not millions—of brackets have already been filled out. Millions more will be decided upon in the coming days, all with one goal in mind: make a bunch of money and feel way smarter than all your friends.

With that in mind, here is a look at some predictions and betting advice for filling out your bracket.

NCAA Tournament Bracket

Historical Seeding 1st-Round Records

1: 132-0

2: 124-8

3: 111-21

4: 106-26

5: 85-47

6: 83-49

7: 81-51

8: 67-65

9: 65-67

10: 51-81

11: 49-83

12: 47-85

13: 26-106

14: 21-111

15: 8-124

16: 0-132

The most prevalent betting advice most give is to pick your favorite 5-12 matchup. There are some obvious betting trends we all need to heed and others that may be getting overlooked. 

So let's go into some bullet points on general advice.

• Do not, under any circumstances, pick a No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed. It's going to happen someday, but neither you nor I are smart enough to figure out when. Take your easy wins when you can get them.
  
• Oh, and don't take any No. 15 seeds, either. It's only happened eight times in history and, again, no one is smart enough to predict exactly when the mighty will fall. It's not "fun" to take high seeds, but we're talking about winning money here—not being the wacky dude who just so happens to get super lucky once every eight years. 
• The 6-11 is the new 5-12. Last year, three No. 11 seeds pulled off upsets over No. 6s, while only one No. 12 did so. This is a trend that's cropped up more in recent years, as major conference teams slide into that 12 spot as one of the final at-large teams. Over the last four tournaments, 10 different No. 11 seeds have advanced to the second round. Only six 12 seeds have done so. 
• Five No. 14 seeds have defeated No. 3 seeds in the last Five tournaments. The feat had only been pulled off three times over the previous decade. It's just something to keep in mind if there's a particular No. 3 you feel is weak.
• 10-11-12 seeds aren't bad bets in the second round. It's a surprising fact, but all three of those high seeds have won at least 40 percent of their second matchups. At least one, if not two, are probably making the Sweet 16 this year.
• A No. 1 seed is probably gonna win the championship. As much as the NCAA tournament promotes itself with "parity," the elites ultimately cut down the nets. Eight of the last 11 national champions have been No. 1 seeds. No other seed has won it all more than once. 

Predictions

• OK, so I lied—I'm picking Duke to win the national championship. The Blue Devils are the Midwest region's No. 2 seed, but they have a higher ceiling than any other team in the nation. Duke and Michigan State are the only two teams with a top-10 offense and defense, per Ken Pomeroy. Talent level has never been the question here; it's all been about the Blue Devils coalescing. It's going to happen over the next few weeks.
• Your dangerous high(ish) seeds: Texas A&M, Missouri, Seton Hall. Five of the last six tournaments has seen a team seeded higher than No. 5 make a run to the Final Four. Texas A&M and Missouri are my two favorite picks to make such a run this March, thanks in large part to their star power. Texas A&M was a top-five team at one point this season and has a potential lottery pick in Robert Williams. Missouri was a tournament team before the return of Michael Porter, who should be a top-five lock in June.
• Most vulnerable high seeds: Auburn, Xavier, West Virginia. Xavier has real potential as a Round 2 exit. The Musketeers really struggle on the defensive side of the ball for stretches and have the ninth-highest luck factor in the nation, per Ken Pomeroy. They've outperformed their point differential all season and looked shaky in two of their three final games. Auburn hasn't been as lucky this season but has outperformed its talent, as evidenced by the Tigers losing four of their final six games. Bob Huggins hasn't made it past the Sweet 16 as West Virginia's coach, and his press defense has sprung leaks at various points all season.
• My Final Four: Arizona, Missouri, Villanova, Duke