March Madness 2018 Bracket: Early Projections for Top Four Seeds

The NCAA tournament selection committee still has nearly a week to set the field for 2018 March Madness.

But each day brings more clarity regarding who will make the cut and how they'll be seeded. In particular, we're getting a firmer grasp on the likeliest recipients of the top four seeds.

Virginia has almost assuredly wrapped up the No. 1 seed already. The Cavaliers sit atop the AP Top 25, the USA Today Coaches Poll, KenPom.com's ranking and RPI.

Head coach Tony Bennett's team has two losses to date in games decided by a total of eight points. The first came out of conference against a West Virginia squad with a top-15 offense and a feisty, high-pressure defense. The other was a one-point, overtime defeat at the hands of Virginia Tech.

"We almost stole that game," Bennett remarked at the time, per the Associated Press (via ESPN), "but that's what it would have been, stealing that game. They outplayed us."

Still, that's the extent of being "overplayed."

The Cavaliers set an ACC record with 17 triumphs in their conference. And if you're wondering whether they took advantage of a down year, think again. KenPom.com tabbed the conference as having three teams in the top seven and nine among the nation's top 36.

Villanova looks like the next-most impressive team on paper and another top-seed lock.

Jay Wright's Wildcats paced the field in BPI, and they're the only other team with a 30-plus adjusted efficiency on KenPom.com. They own a brilliant 27-4 record, and their average outing is a 16-point victory.

Six different players average double figures. Five of them are 39-plus-percent shooters from three. Four of them are upperclassmen, including All-Big East first-teamers and Wooden Award finalists Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges.

This is the nation's best offense in points per game (87.2) and adjusted efficiency (126.8). They're also the 24th-rated defense, so it's not as if this squad is overly dependent on its point production.

"They make you pay for every mistake that you make," Georgetown head coach Patrick Ewing said, per Dan Gelston of the Associated Press.

Villanova, however, didn't win the Big East regular-season title. That honor went to Xavier, another deserving No. 1 seed.

The Musketeers also went 27-4, losing twice to Villanova but going 15-1 in the rest of its Big East battles. Xavier has gone 8-3 against the RPI top 50, with half of those victories decided by double digits.

Senior guard Trevon Bluiett is Xavier's primary difference-maker. Like Villanova's heavy-hitters, Bluiett was named both an All-Big East first-teamer and a Wooden Award finalist. He's the team leader in minutes (34.2), points (19.4), rebounds (5.6) and three-point percentage (43.4).

That leaves one seed up for grabs, and a couple candidates might feel they deserve it.

But our crystal ball has Kansas on the top line, and Duke left to look up at it.

There's a ho-hum feeling about the Jayhawks winning another Big 12 title—their record-setting 14th in a row—but that urge must be fought. The achievement shouldn't be glossed over, even if it seemingly always happens.

Kansas doesn't always win a conference this loaded. It's a 10-team league, and it has nine programs either bound for the NCAA tournament or somewhere around the bubble. That's the quality of conference the Jayhawks conquered with a 24-7 mark overall and 13-5 record in league play.

As CBS Sports' bracketologist Jerry Palm sees it, that's enough for Kansas to edge past Duke...for now:

"The Jayhawks are still holding on to a No. 1 seed in CBS Sports' bracket projections, but they are being challenged by Duke, which came from behind to beat North Carolina and split the season series with the Tar Heels. Kansas is still on the top line because of the high number of quality wins, despite having one more loss than the Blue Devils. That gap is shrinking, though. Kansas may have to win the conference tournament to hold off Duke."

Save for the automatic qualifiers, nothing is set in stone before the selection committee makes its picks.

But early projections put Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Kansas into the four most-coveted spots on the brackets.

Statistics used courtesy of ESPN.com and KenPom.com.