UFC 222 Predictions: Main Card Staff Picks
Take the "female" out of it. She might be the best fighter on the modern UFC landscape, any gender.
But when Cristiane "Cyborg" Justino makes the walk Saturday at UFC 222, it's uncertain what, if anything, can be learned about her current or future trajectory. She's an overwhelming favorite, according to OddsShark, to defeat unheralded and essentially unknown opponent Yana Kunitskaya.
Kunitskaya does have some pedigree, having twice won bantamweight gold in Invicta FC, at least theoretically. But there's not much to suggest she has the skills to headline a UFC pay-per-view main event.
Saturday may tell a different story; you never know. In the meantime, there are five total fights on that main card, including a cracker between former champ Frankie Edgar and skyrocketing challenger Brian Ortega.
It's an interesting card, and our predictions team is here to walk you through it. Nathan McCarter, Matthew Ryder, Steven Rondina and, myself, Scott Harris. Let's pick some fights.
Cat Zingano vs. Ketlen Vieira
1 of 5
Nathan McCarter
Our yearly Cat Zingano fight is about to happen, and I don't foresee this matchup to be too much of a challenge for her. Vieira is talented, as is evident by her submission win over Sara McMann, but the stylistic matchup favors Zingano going away. The only question I have is can she finish the fight? I'll lay down on Vieira toughing this loss out.
Zingano, unanimous decision
Matthew Ryder
Zingano is rapidly approaching status as a what-might-have-been proposition. There was a time when she was one of the top 135-pounders alive, but inactivity and some tough losses have set her back. Viera is on the come-up, and I’m inclined to think her skill set is the perfect foil to Alpha Cat based on what we’ve seen in the past.
Vieira, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
At this point, it's almost impossible to guess how good Zingano is, and that makes it complete guesswork as to how she matches up with Vieira. Maybe she's still the steely wrestler with big knockout power who beat Amanda Nunes back in the day. Maybe she's lost a step during her latest extended layoff. We'll ultimately see here (and then probably see her disappear for another year, only to restart this exact discussion ahead of her next appearance).
Zingano, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Interesting subtheme to this event: a good number of dormant fighters are returning to action. Zingano is the first such example on the main card (undercard examples include Bryan Caraway, C.B. Dollaway and Mike Pyle, who has said he'll retire after this event). In any case, Zingano is too much of a physical athlete to ever be an easy out. This is a close matchup, but Zingano is motivated. She has to keep this standing against a great young grappler in Vieira, but here's guessing she'll do it—and get herself a bonus in the process.
Zingano, TKO, Rd. 1
Stefan Struve vs. Andrei Arlovski
2 of 5
McCarter
Two extremely inconsistent heavyweights make for a coin-flip fight. I'll say the coin falls in favor of Stefan Struve. Younger, bigger and a stronger intuitive wheelhouse gives me just a touch more confidence in him than in Andrei Arlovski. But who knows, right? Heavyweight MMA is a thing unto itself.
Struve, TKO, Rd. 2
Ryder
This one’s a guaranteed finish, but I’m not sure who’ll be on the right side of it. Arlovski has slowed considerably, but Struve is pretty hittable and alarmingly shopworn for a guy not yet 30 years old. I’ll say Arlovski has a hard time getting into range, gets clipped and Struve finishes him on the ground.
Struve, submission, Rd. 2
Rondina
Arlovski's chin is once again a serious issue, but I just don't have enough faith that Struve is going to put hands on it. I think Struve will have his moments in this fight but ultimately fall in the second half of the bout. Or he will get outworked to the point where he loses a straightforward decision.
Arlovski, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
Another fan favorite returns; this is only Struve's third fight in the last three rolling years. No serious fan wants to see either of these guys get knocked out. So there'll be plenty of internal conflict when these two sluggers move to slug it out with each other. This fight is like a night at the whiskey bar. Maybe it's a lot of fun, but the hangover is quick in arriving. One must pick against the much older and weak-chinned Arlovski.
Struve, TKO, Rd. 2
Sean O'Malley vs. Andre Soukhamthath
3 of 5
McCarter
This is a fun matchup getting a good slot because the UFC sees something in Sean O'Malley. Is it enough to get past Andre Soukhamthath? He has the ability to do so, but I don't think it happens on Saturday. Soukhamthath finally got a solid performance inside the Octagon, and I'll go with that momentum. He'll draw O'Malley into some exchanges and score the more powerful shots en route to a decision.
Soukhamthath, unanimous decision
Ryder
Never seen either of these guys fight, but I've at least heard of O'Malley. Wikipedia sleuthing also has him being undefeated, so why would I think that'll change here?
O’Malley, KO, Rd. 2
Rondina
Soukhamthath is better than his UFC record would suggest, but there's a reason he was picked to fight a dude that the UFC is bullish about. In all likelihood, he won't let O'Malley look too good, but he will still do the job.
O'Malley, unanimous decision
Harris
Can you believe O'Malley is actually an underdog in this fight? That's crazy. Look at the hair. Look at that shirt. Take a gander at the Snoop Dogg stories. Soukhamthath hits harder and O'Malley has better movement and all-around athleticism. In all seriousness, Soukamthath can win this fight. It just feels like fate is on the side of the green but charismatic new bantamweight.
O'Malley, split decision
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Frankie Edgar vs. Brian Ortega
4 of 5
McCarter
I've already put in an order for fresh movie popcorn for this one right here. I've been a believer in Brian Ortega for a hot minute, and I'm going to take a flier on him to steal Frankie Edgar's title shot. Ortega's going to need to find some better striking defense to win the fight. He'll get touched up a bit, but he'll get his own offense in as well. Especially when grappling situations occur. Ortega edges the fight out with a clean third round.
Ortega, unanimous decision
Ryder
Edgar has been straight up slaying all competition not named Jose Aldo or Benson Henderson for a decade. Ortega is the hot new property at 145, but he always seems perilously close to seeing his mojo run out.
I don’t think T-City can sub Frankie, and I don’t think he can handle him on the feet. I’m looking for Edgar to win with movement and volume like he always does, and get himself right back in line to fight Mighty Max again sometime soon.
Edgar, unanimous decision
Rondina
You have to have a specific set of skills and disciplined execution in order to beat Edgar, and while Ortega is very, very good, I don't think he has the right tools to take this. He might bring in some new X-factor that makes me look the fool, but if he doesn't, I'm expecting Edgar to use his squirrely boxing to get the clean decision win and yet another title shot.
Edgar, unanimous decision
Harris
You know what I enjoy? I enjoy myself some T-City Brian Ortega. I also like putting his nickname in front of his first name. Good flow there. It's hard to pick against Edgar. The ex-champ has quickness, movement, wrestling, cardio and all-around toughness, and it has cemented his Hall-of-Fame status.
T-City Brian Ortega is not only younger (27 to Edgar's 36), he's bigger, more aggressive, more varied in his striking and pure fatal poison with his jiu-jitsu. He can batter Edgar at range, at least theoretically, while his submission game deters Edgar's takedown attempts. And he has the cardio to back it all up, round by round. Give me the slight underdog and a fresh face in the featherweight title picture.
Ortega, unanimous decision
Cris Cyborg vs. Yana Kunitskaya
5 of 5
McCarter
Another one-sided beatdown. Yana Kunitskaya is a bantamweight, but one of the few who can legitimately be a featherweight. She's just not anywhere near as talented as Cris Cyborg yet.
Cyborg, TKO, Rd. 1
Ryder
Poor, poor Kunitskaya. You can’t possibly figure she wanted to get to the UFC like this. The one thing she has going for her is that, though she comes from Invicta as bantamweight champion, she is probably a natural featherweight under the increased scrutinizing of modern weight cuts and divisions.
That’s probably it, though. Cyborg is Cyborg, and she will do highly vicious, highly Cyborg things on her way to the W.
Cyborg, TKO, Round 2
Rondina
Unless Kunitskaya can blast Cyborg with something, and I mean really blast her because she passed a few chin tests against Holly Holm in December, then this is easy work for the champ.
Cyborg, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
Why, Yana Kunitskaya? Why? When you say such things, you literally hurt yourself.
That's the only thought I had when I read the challenger's comments proclaiming that Cyborg lacked knockout power. I mean, I know she's trying to sell pay-per-views. I know she's trying to stand up for herself in the face of a million people who think she's nothing but cannon fodder. But come on. You have to sneak up on the lion, not run up and poke it in the eye. The women's GOAT plays with her food before clamping the jaws shut.
Cyborg, KO, Rd. 2
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