Big Ten Basketball Tournament 2018: Preview and Predictions for Every Team
It's hard to pin it on one single thing. Some Big Ten men's basketball teams struggled with injuries and suspensions. Several fared poorly in nonconference play. To be certain, there was a lot of plain, old badness.
The easiest scapegoat for the conference's woes this season is the decision to compress the 18-game conference schedule by a full week. The ultimate goal was to finish the conference tournament early so teams would have extra rest before the main event.
That may have backfired.
Bracketologists Jerry Palm of CBS Sports and Joe Lunardi of ESPN both project the Big Ten to send four teams to the Big Dance, respectively the lowest and second-lowest among the power conferences.
As is usually the case, the truth is probably an amalgam of things. Another truth: Sitting sixth in conference RPI, this has not been a banner year for the Big Ten. You might not know it by looking at the national rankings, but that's the way it is.
In the conference tournament, more teams need to go deep or run the table, so the stakes will be higher. A few elite teams have their Big Dance berths sewn up. Mostly, though, these are bottom-feeders and a couple of bona fide bubble teams.
It all kicks off Wednesday in New York's Madison Square Garden. Here's your primer for all 14 teams and their chances to make a splash.
The teams appear in the order they are seeded in the official tournament draw, which also includes games times. Stats are current as of February 26.
14. Rutgers
1 of 14
First matchup: No. 11 Minnesota (Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses in first game
Four seasons in the Big Ten, four last-place finishes. Not what you're looking for if you're a Rutgers basketball fan.
The Scarlet Knights finished 13-18 overall and 3-15 in the conference. That's one win worse than their 2016-17 regular-season campaign. The key problem is as familiar as the record: They simply cannot put the ball in the hole. According to KenPom, they sit at 306th in adjusted offense.
They finished the season losing 10 of 11 and needed overtime to topple swooning Northwestern. Funnily enough, Minnesota ended with an identical streak, showing how bottom-heavy (bottom-light?) this season's Big Ten really is. Still, unless they can find another scorer behind their Big Three of Corey Sanders, Deshawn Freeman and Geo Baker, they'll have yet another long night this Wednesday in Madison Square Garden.
13. Illinois
2 of 14
First matchup: No. 12 Iowa (Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 5 Michigan in second round
Illinois (14-17, 4-14) has done a decent job of beating the bad teams this season. Yes, they went 2-6 in their final eight, but every one of those losses except one (Wisconsin) came against the conference's top half.
The proud program hoped that last season's 20-15 performance, including a run to the NIT quarterfinals, represented the beginnings of a turnaround. It wasn't to be this season, though optimists can take solace in all those close battles that saw the Illini come up just short. Twelve of their 17 losses came by 10 points or less, three of them came in overtime and two came by a single point.
Those factors, plus their tendency to handle the lower sections of the conference, will mean Illinois springs the upset in the first round.
12. Iowa
3 of 14
First matchup: No. 13 Illinois (Wednesday, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses first game
Last season's leading scorer, Peter Jok, departed, but the other key players remained. Preseason polls had the Hawkeyes (13-18, 4-14) finishing near their 2016-17 eighth-place finish.
They finished 13th in the conference and drew the No. 12 seed in the tournament.
It's been that kind of season in Iowa City. Defense like a wet sponge—250th in the KenPom ratings—is the prime culprit.
But you also have to wonder whether notoriously combustible head coach Fran McCaffrey, who is in his eighth season but has yet to deliver consistent improvement, has lost the team.
Unfortunately for those who lament Iowa's level of play, a downright Gordian contract means the university probably can't afford to buy him out. Wednesday's upset loss will, for better or worse, add fuel to the fire.
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11. Minnesota
4 of 14
First matchup: No. 14 Rutgers (Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 6 Indiana in second round
Stop me if you've heard this one before, but Minnesota (15-16, 4-14) finished their regular season losing 10 of their last 11. Sorry, but this Big Ten lower section is just putrid.
That Nov. 25 win over then-No. 25 Alabama must feel like a long time ago. They haven't beaten a ranked opponent since, despite six chances to do so.
Jordan Murphy and all-time great Gopher Nate Mason gamely carry the team, but it's slim pickings after that. Third-leading scorer Amir Coffey went down in January with injury, and the school expelled center Reggie Lynch after an investigation into sexual assault allegations.
If they weren't playing Rutgers, not much would be expected of them in this tournament. And hey, a Rutgers shocker is certainly within the realm of possibility.
10. Northwestern
5 of 14
First matchup: No. 7 Penn State (Thursday, 6:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses first game
At last, a glimmer of hope. Kind of.
Northwestern (15-16, 6-12) reached new heights last season when they made their first Big Dance. Pundits picked the Wildcats for a third-place conference finish this season.
They jumped out to a 10-5 start, but then the free-fall began. They went 5-11 from that point forward, including a six-game losing streak to close things out. Many of the losses came by just a few points and involved the Wildcats losing leads.
It was frustrating and multifaceted. For example: The team returned more talent than it lost over the offseason, and expected well-regarded freshman guard Anthony Gaines to help fill the void. Despite solid minutes (18.2), Gaines failed to produce, averaging just four points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.2 assists per contest.
If there's a silver lining Thursday for Northwestern fans, it will be a merciful end.
9. Wisconsin
6 of 14
First matchup: No. 8 Maryland (Thursday, 12 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 1 Michigan State in quarterfinals
Throughout the season, fans of the Wisconsin Badgers (14-17, 7-11) could count on Ethan Happ. You can set your watch to his double-doubles.
Now his teammates are following that consistency. They've won four of their last six, including an upset of Purdue. On Sunday they gave Michigan State all they could handle before losing by five.
Freshman Brad Davison has emerged as a solid second option—he now averages 12.1 points per game and poured in 30 against the Spartans.
Still, Happ and Davison are the only two players averaging double figures, so depth is an issue. As a team, they only manage 67.3 points per contest. That's ninth in the Big Ten, and lo and behold, that's exactly where they sit overall.
Their roster isn't complete enough for a deep run. However, if Happ and Davison muster one more big outing, they will edge the Terps.
8. Maryland
7 of 14
First matchup: No. 9 Wisconsin (Thursday, 12 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses first game
The first team to enter this list with a winning record, the Maryland Terrapins (19-12, 8-10) may not be on the bubble as of now, but a win or two in Manhattan could get them there.
As with their first-round opponents, the Terps are not a deep squad. Only three players average double figures in scoring. On top of that, they're young. Leading scorers Anthony Cowan and Kevin Huerter are sophomores, and third-leading scorer Bruno Fernando is a freshman. What's more, season-ending injuries to forwards Justin Jackson and Ivan Bender put a damaging crimp in their frontcourt.
(If that wasn't enough, there's the school's internal investigation over possible corruption, which began at the worst possible time for "distraction" purposes.)
The team has been inconsistent, looking terrific in one game before disappearing in the next. They also haven't beaten a ranked opponent all season. Yes, they did beat Wisconsin in February, but that was only by five and came in College Park. And though they won three of their last five, two of those wins were Northwestern and the other was Rutgers.
If you look beyond the record, you'll see a team trending in the wrong direction.
7. Penn State
8 of 14
First matchup: No. 10 Northwestern (Thursday, 6:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first two games, loses to Purdue in semifinals
According to bracket projections by Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller, Penn State (19-12, 9-9) is on the bubble, or at least within shouting distance. The Nittany Lions will make a strong run through the Big Ten conference and play themselves right into the Dance.
Why's that? Well, first there's the simple matter of arithmetic. Beating highly beatable Northwestern brings them to second-seeded Ohio State—a team the Nittany Lions beat twice this season, the second time by 23.
Second, three defeats to close the regular season was not a good look, making the Big Ten tourney all the more crucial. They will also get a boost if big man Mike Watkins can return from the injury that kept him out of the regular-season finale.
Third, this is a balanced squad. Defense is their bread and butter, and they sit 20th in the KenPom rankings. But they're no slouch on offense, ranking 61st in KenPom. Their 72.1 conference points per game rank fourth in the Big Ten.
Tony Carr (19.9 points per game) is their best offensive player, but with five players averaging double figures, there are plenty of options to keep defenses honest. They'll make it three-for-three against the Buckeyes and punch their first Dance card since 2011.
6. Indiana
9 of 14
First matchup: Minnesota (projected) (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 3 Purdue in quarterfinals
Living by the sword, dying by the sword. Your 2017-18 Indiana Hoosiers.
A 10-point loss to then-top-ranked Duke was followed by a three-point overtime win over then-18th-ranked Notre Dame. A four-point win over Penn State on Jan. 9 preceded a three-point win over Maryland on Jan. 22. Not long after, there was a seven-point home loss to Purdue, then a three-point home loss to Michigan State. They closed out the season with a two-point double-overtime loss to the Buckeyes.
Hilariously, IU finished the regular season at 216th—i.e., just a shade lower than smack in the middle—of KenPom's luck index, which measures close games. They ended up Even Steven on this front. Quick, somebody throw $20 out the window!
Apparently the Hoosier faithful are not as impressed, as they are chronically no-showing for home games. In the fans' defense, this is not a fun product to watch. According to Basketball Reference, Indiana ranks ninth in the Big 10 with 49.4 percent shooting on two-point attempts, 10th with 34.4 percent on three-point attempts and dead last with 63.4 percent shooting from the stripe. That's enough to win them a game in the conference tourney but not enough for the very deep run they'd need to turn heads on the Selection Committee.
5. Michigan
10 of 14
First matchup: Illinois (projected) (Thursday, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first two games, loses to No. 1 Michigan State in semifinals
Lunardi has Michigan (24-7, 13-5) in the big tournament as a No. 6 seed, and Nebraska—ranked one spot over the Woverines in the conference tourney draw—as one of the "First Four Out."
More on Nebraska momentarily, but this speaks to Michigan's performance out of conference and against top opponents. They are ranked No. 23 nationally in RPI, thanks to wins over the likes of Michigan State, Ohio State and UCLA, among others. Five straight Ws to conclude regular-season proceedings don't hurt either.
The defending Big Ten tournament champs will eventually have to go through their in-state rivals. That's where their run ends, but that's OK. They're playing with house money.
4. Nebraska
11 of 14
First matchup: Michigan (projected) (Friday, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses first game
Looking for drama? Here's your drama.
Nebraska (22-9, 13-5) had a fine season. Seeing as they finished 12-19 and 6-12 last season, and similar iterations for a couple seasons before that, they have already achieved some success.
As the tournament kicks off, no Big Ten team is more bubblicious than the Cornhuskers. Impressive regular season or no, they hold their Dance destiny in their own hands and have to play their way into the middle of March.
Nebraska looked pretty good over the past few weeks. Except for a hiccup at Illinois, the Huskers won eight straight to end the regular season. In January, they also beat a ranked Michigan team, who the odds suggest they'll face in the quarters.
Their 58th RPI ranking means they'll probably need more than a repeat knockoff of Michigan. Hey, you never know with the Selection Committee, but in order to really lock it down they will have to get past the Wolverines then hope Michigan State holds serve. The Spartans are the signature win they need.
Sorry to be a killjoy, but that's a tall order. It's what Nebraska needs to do, and here's guessing they don't do it.
3. Purdue
12 of 14
First matchup: Indiana (projected) (Friday, 9 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first two games, loses to No. 1 Michigan State in final
Purdue (26-5, 15-3) finished second in the Big Ten regular-season standings. They finished fourth overall in KenPom's performance efficiency rankings; third in adjusted offensive efficiency; 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a good team.
Four players—Carsen Edwards, Vincent Edwards, Isaac Haas and Dakota Mathias—handle the scoring, with each averaging at least 12.5 points. As a team, they really excel in shooting. In conference play, they led the Big Ten with 169 three-pointers made, a 42.5 percent success rate beyond the arc and 76.6 points per game.
Unless you've got "Golden State" across your chest, all shooting-reliant teams raise the specter of inconsistency. At a glance, Purdue's win totals may suggest otherwise, but when they go cold it's a race to absolute zero. They dropped consecutive losses to Tennessee and Western Kentucky back in November, then earlier this month fell to Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin, all in row. Their average scoring in those five was 65.5, more than 16 points below their season average.
In a conference tournament context, though, it's neither here nor there. They're ensconced in the Big Ten's ruling class, and nothing that happens in the tournament will change that.
2. Ohio State
13 of 14
First matchup: Penn State (projected) (Friday, 6:30 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses first game to No. 7 Penn State
Like the Boilermakers who sit below them in the tournament seedings and above them in the conference and national standings, the Buckeyes (24-7, 15-3) are already booked for the big tournament. Respect is on the line when they take the floor at MSG.
For a team with this record and a No. 18 RPI—not to mention a current No. 4 projection from Lunardi—Ohio State seems to exist below the radar. They've toppled Michigan State, Purdue and Michigan, among others, but their best out-of-conference win was probably Stanford.
In head coach Chris Holtmann's first season, he's carved out a team identity predicated on defense and clean play. They topped the Big Ten with 49.5 percent field-goal shooting while holding opponents to a third-best 41.3 percent clip. Their defensive prowess landed them 13th on KenPom's defensive efficiency ratings and finished second in conference play with 652 total rebounds, while ranking third in Big Ten play with only 191 turnovers committed.
In other words, classic Big Ten rock-fight stuff.
Could Ohio State take care of business against Penn State? Of course. It's hard to beat anyone three times in a season. But Penn State has everything to play for. Ohio State showing up less pumped than their opponents for this game—a high-profile affair that holds no tangible stakes for them—is probably the less-shocking scenario.
1. Michigan State
14 of 14
First matchup: Wisconsin (projected) (Friday, 12 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins Big Ten conference tournament
No matter how you slice it, Michigan State (28-3, 16-2) is the class of the Big Ten.
Purdue squeaks past them in KenPom's overall and offensive ratings, but the Spartans still sit in the top 10 for net, offensive and defensive efficiency. Basketball Reference has them in the Big Ten's top three for 11 of 22 different in-conference statistical categories, including points per game (second with 76.5), total rebounds (first with 701), field-goal percentage (third with 48.2), free-throw percentage (first with 76.7) and total assists (first with 321).
You get the idea. They won the regular season, and now the five-time tourney champs will try to get that banner back. They'll have something else to play for, too. Although every Big Dance team can improve their position, the Spartans have a chance to nab a No. 1 seed. That's a plum prize, given the favorable geographic slotting and ultra-cushy opening-round matchups that can come along with it.
They probably won't sneak in with anything less than a conference tourney title, with great teams in front of them and a relatively squishy nonconference schedule. Lunardi recently theorized that a No. 2 seed is "as high as the Spartans can climb."
They might need some help from other top teams underperforming in their own conference tournaments, but beating Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue in succession would net them the tournament title and a 15-game, six-week-long winning streak. That's as good a case as any.
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