March Madness 2018: Teams with Potential to Be Bracket-Busters

The field for the 2018 NCAA men's tournament will be unveiled Sunday, with all 68 teams slotted into the bracket in an effort to create the most balanced, competitive event possible.

But just like records are meant to be broken, brackets are meant to be blown apart by upstarts who decide not to follow the script.

Every year, the NCAA tourney has a few sleepers who advance further than expected, at least in terms of seeding. In 2017, we didn't see many major first-round upsets, with just five double-digit seeds advancing. But after that, chaos was rampant. Michigan and Wisconsin reached the Sweet 16 as No. 7 and 8 seeds, respectively, then 11th-seeded Xavier made the Elite Eight and No. 7 South Carolina got all the way to the Final Four.

Who could those bracket-busters be this March? We've considered any team that is projected—according to BracketMatrix.com—to be a No. 6 seed or lower, and to earn "sleeper" status it has to advance beyond the round that its seed would normally reach.

For example, teams seeded ninth or lower aren't expected to make it out of the first round, though 8-9 games tend to be a crapshoot, while only teams seeded 1 through 4 are supposed to reach the Sweet 16. If any unusual numbers make it through the first weekend, they're likely to be attached to the below teams.

The 10 teams we've highlighted may not all make it into the field, but those that do will be poised to do damage.

Alabama

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Projected seed: 10

The Alabama team that lost by 23 to Kentucky in Saturday's SEC tournament semifinal isn't the one you'll see in its opening NCAA tournament game, or any others beyond that if the Crimson Tide advance. That one won't be playing for the third time in as many days and coming off a pair of emotional victories, one on a buzzer-beater and the other against a heated rival.

Their 19-15 record would be among the worst ever for an at-large selection, but what is most important about that mark is the number of high-level wins the Tide managed. They went 10-11 against a much-improved SEC with three victories over co-regular-seasons champions Auburn and Tennessee, including an 81-63 blowout of Auburn in the tourney quarterfinal.

That came right after Alabama beat Texas A&M in the first round on a coast-to-coast finger roll by freshman guard Collin Sexton, a likely NBA lottery pick who averages 19 points for the season and scored 79 points in three SEC tourney games.

Loyola-Chicago

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Projected seed: 11

Loyola-Chicago (28-5) is in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1985, having breezed through the Wichita State-less Missouri Valley Conference with a potent blend of three-point shooting and defense. The Ramblers have allowed only 62.2 points per game and shoot 39.8 percent from deep, both of which rank in the top 25 nationally.

An early December win at Florida highlighted Loyola's top traits, as it held the Gators to 59 points and 36.9 percent shooting while it shot 52.0 percent and made six of 12 threes.

Five Ramblers have averaged double figures in scoring, including former Iowa State guard Clayton Custer, a junior who shoots 44 percent from outside.

Middle Tennessee

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Projected seed: 11

As great as conference championship week is, it's not without its flaws. Namely, a team like Middle Tennessee (24-7) might be left out of the NCAA tournament because it had the misfortune of playing its worst game of the season at the worst time.

A loss to Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA quarterfinals means the Blue Raiders are at the mercy of the NCAA tourney selection committee for an at-large bid, which they got in 2013. That MTSU squad wasn't nearly as good as the current one, which features several players left over from the teams that pulled major upsets in the past two NCAA tourneys.

MTSU beat Minnesota as a No. 12 seed last year and shocked No. 2 Michigan State in 2016. And that was without senior Nick King, a former Memphis and Alabama forward who is averaging 21.1 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.

Murray State

Daniel R. Patmore/Associated Press

Projected seed: 13

Back in the NCAA tourney for the first time since 2012, Murray State (26-5) has a high-scoring ball-handler in 6'0" senior Jonathan Stark. He's averaged 21.8 points per game and made 41.0 percent of his three-pointers.

The Racers aren't a one-man show, though, as senior big man Terrell Miller Jr. has averaged 14.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, while freshman guard Temetrius Morant has chipped in 12.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 6.4 assists. Morant is one of only two Division I players averaging 12/6/6.

Murray State took Auburn to the limit in December and has held three of its last four opponents to under 40 percent shooting. If the Racers can muck things up and get good numbers from its stars, they could make noise.

Rhode Island

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Projected seed: 7

Rhode Island (25-6) will play in the Atlantic 10 tournament final on Sunday, but regardless of the result, the Rams are going to be in the NCAA tourney for the second year in a row. The current squad is better than the one that nearly reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 11 seed in 2017.

The Rams' success begins and ends with the senior guards that have become known as "Batman and Batman," E.C. Matthews and Jared Terrell. That duo has averaged 30.4 points and 7.6 rebounds in the 25 games in which both played—Matthews missed six games with a wrist injury in November and December.

They sport a strong supporting cast, too, making for an eight-man rotation that features six different players who have scored at least 20 points in a game. Rhode Island won 16 in a row at one point, tied for the third-longest win streak in the country this season.

Saint Bonaventure

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Projected seed: 9

St. Bonaventure (25-7) has matched the school record for wins set in 1970, when future NBA Hall of Famer Bob Lanier led the Bonnies to the Final Four. Senior guards Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley may never reach the same level as Lanier, from a pro standpoint, but this season they've been tremendous together.

Their 37 combined points in the Atlantic 10 tournament semifinal loss to Davidson on Saturday gave them 1,108 for the year. They've combined for 177 three-pointers; Mobley has drained 102 and Adams has connected for 75 at a 45.7 percent clip.

Nonconference wins over Maryland and Syracuse, and over mid-major regular-season conference champions Buffalo, Vermont and Rhode Island made for a strong overall resume. And with five juniors or seniors among its top six players, St. Bonaventure is the kind of veteran team that often goes on a run in the NCAA tourney.

Saint Mary's

L.E. Baskow/Associated Press

Projected seed: 11

Assuming it gets into the tournament—and that's no guarantee—Saint Mary's (28-5) is going to be a tough opponent. There's uncertainty about the Gaels' NCAA hopes, though, because of an overinflated record that only features one quality win—over West Coast Conference champ Gonzaga—in three tries.

The Gaels' resume won't matter once they're in the field, though. How efficient they are will, however, as they're third nationally in offensive rating thanks to a Division I-best 51.4 percent shooting. A lot of that is because of 6'11" senior center Jock Landale, who's shot 64.0 percent in averaging 21.4 points and 10.3 rebounds per game.

Landale can create for himself, but his teammates constantly to get the ball to him, with junior guard Emmett Naar dishing out 8.0 assists per contest. Throw in at least 43 percent three-point shooting from junior wing Calvin Hermanson and freshman guard Jordan Ford, and you have a team that will be tough to stop, even with its slow tempo.

South Dakota State

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Projected seed: 12

The best player you probably haven't heard of—but darn well should—is South Dakota State junior forward Mike Daum. At 6'9" and 250 pounds, he was a man among giants for the Jackrabbits (28-6) in the Summit League, in which they won 16 of 17 games and averaged 84 points per contest.

A healthy chunk of that production came from Daum, who averaged 23.8 points and 10.4 rebounds per game while shooting 46.2 percent overall and 42.1 percent from three-point range. Daum averaged 27.0 points and 7.8 rebounds in five games against power-conference competition this season, so it's not like he's only been feasting on lesser foes.

Daum will get opponents' focus, but they cannot forget about South Dakota State's backcourt. Senior Reed Tellinghuisen, junior Tevin King and freshman David Jenkins Jr. have combined for 37.4 points per game, and Jenkins scored 29 in the Summit League title-game win over South Dakota on Tuesday.

UCLA

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Projected seed: 11

UCLA (21-11) lost nine road or neutral-site games this season, but it's the victories they picked up away from Pauley Pavilion that should scare any foe that draws the Bruins in the NCAA tournament. In nonconference play, they took out Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic, then despite just a 3-6 road record in the Pac-12, they knocked off regular-season champion Arizona and second-placed USC away from home late in the season.

The Bruins then took Arizona to OT in the Pac-12 tourney semifinals before running out of gas in a 78-67 loss. But they'll be refreshed for next week, and with their penchant for hitting three-pointers in bunches, no opponent is safe.

UCLA has hit 10 or more three-pointers in 19 of 32 games, and its top six scorers have all shot at least 35 percent from deep. Junior guard Aaron Holiday is the only player in the country averaging 20 points and five assists and shooting 43 percent from three-point range.

Virginia Tech

DON PETERSEN/Associated Press

Projected seed: 8

Upset by Notre Dame early in the ACC tournament, Virginia Tech (21-11) enters the NCAA tourney on a two-game losing streak. The Hokies had a similar skid in mid-January but responded to win eight of their next 11 with victories over Duke, North Carolina and Virginia.

That triumph over Virginia was on the road, which by itself qualifies Virginia Tech as a potential bracket-buster since it's shown it can beat the presumptive No. 1 overall NCAA tournament seed. But there's much more to the Hokies, who get double figures in scoring from five players, with each shooting at least 45 percent.

Though the overall numbers don't show it, Virginia Tech has picked it up on the defensive end in the last month. Five of their 11 opponents to shoot below 40 percent came since Jan. 27.

Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference and are through games of Saturday, March 10. Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.