The Biggest X-Factor for College Basketball's Top Contenders in 2017-18
This year's college basketball season has been wide open from the jump, and that should make for an exciting March with no clear-cut title favorite.
That being said, there are still a handful of teams that have separated themselves from the pack.
Ahead, we've highlighted the biggest X-factor for the top 10 contenders to win the national championship in 2018.
The 10 were chosen based on the latest odds at OddsShark, as they were the teams with better than 20/1 odds to win it all.
Xavier: The Effectiveness of the 1-3-1 Zone
1 of 10
Odds: 16/1
The 1-3-1 zone that Xavier coach Chris Mack likes to run can take teams by surprise, and he runs it often enough that his players have seen a variety of different strategies to attack it offensively.
However, when a team gets hot from beyond the arc, that zone can get them into trouble.
The Musketeers have allowed 267 three-pointers on the season, which ranks 333rd among the 351 teams in Division 1.
The perfect example of how quickly things can go south was their game against Villanova last week.
The Wildcats shot a blistering 16-of-34 from beyond the arc en route to a convincing 95-79 victory, and Xavier simply didn't have an answer.
Any team can get hot from downtown on any given night, so the Musketeers will have to avoid letting that be the downfall of their season.
Wichita State: Defensive Efficiency
2 of 10
Odds: 12/1
The Shockers proved they belong in the national title conversation with a huge road win on Feb. 18 against a Cincinnati team that was ranked No. 5 in the AP poll at the time.
But do they have the defensive chops to slow down an elite offensive team?
In recent seasons, they've been one of the best defensive squads in the nation, according to KenPom's Adjusted Efficiency metric:
- 2013-14: 11th
- 2014-15: 15th
- 2015-16: 1st
- 2016-17: 13th
However, they've dipped to 91st in the nation this season.
With a deep and balanced offense that's averaging 84.2 points per game, led by the dynamic one-two punch of Landry Shamet (14.7 PPG, 45.3 3PT%) and Shaquille Morris (13.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG), they can shoot teams out of the gym when they get hot.
Hoping to win a shootout is a risky strategy when March rolls around, though.
Purdue: The Health of Vince Edwards
3 of 10
Odds: 12/1
Vince Edwards was having a terrific all-around season for the Purdue Boilermakers.
The 6'7" forward is second on the team with 14.9 points per game, he's the team's leading rebounder at 7.8 boards per contest, and he's chipped in 3.0 assists while shooting 40.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Simply put, he's the kind of jack-of-all-trades that can be a catalyst in a number of ways.
The question now is whether he'll be back to 100 percent by the time the tournament rolls around.
The senior missed Sunday's game at Penn State after spraining his ankle in practice last week and sat again against Illinois on Thursday.
The Boilermakers are a veteran team with a lot of weapons that can beat you in a number of ways, but having a healthy Edwards will be the biggest X-factor in whether they can make a legitimate run at a title.
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North Carolina: Perimeter Defense
4 of 10
Odds: 12/1
The quickest way to get bumped in the NCAA tournament is to run into a team that gets hot from beyond the arc.
Adding poor perimeter defense into the mix is just a recipe for disaster.
North Carolina has a tremendously talented roster, led by Wooden Award candidate Luke Maye (18.0 PPG, 10.2 RPG) and point guard Joel Berry (17.7 PPG, 3.1 APG), and the team is playing its best basketball right now in the midst of a six-game winning streak.
However, the lack of perimeter defense continues to be an alarming red flag.
On the season, the Tar Heels have allowed opponents to shoot 38.3 percent from distance, which checks in 325th among the 351 teams at the D-I level.
In their last two losses—against NC State (Jan. 27) and Clemson (Jan. 30)—they allowed identical 15-of-30 shooting nights from beyond the arc.
They'll have to clamp down come tournament time.
Kansas: Depth
5 of 10
Odds: 12/1
Kansas is one of the most talented teams in college basketball.
They are also one of the thinnest from a roster standpoint, as evidenced by the overwhelming number of minutes played by the starting lineup:
- Devonte' Graham: 37.2
- Svi Mykhailiuk: 34.5
- Lagerald Vick: 32.6
- Malik Newman: 30.8
- Udoka Azubuike: 24.4
Freshman Marcus Garrett (19.4 MPG, 4.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG) and backup center Mitch Lightfoot (14.1 MPG, 3.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG) are the only other players who see regular time in the rotation.
That puts them in a precarious position come tournament time if a starter is injured or someone runs into foul trouble.
Arizona: The Health of Rawle Alkins
6 of 10
Odds: 10/1
Myron Medcalf of ESPN.com pointed to the need for a "consistent effort" from Rawle Alkins for Arizona to enjoy a deep tournament run.
His performance now becomes even more important after star guard Allonzo Trier was ruled ineligible on Thursday after testing positive for a banned substance. That leaves 19.6 points per game for the team to make up, among other contributions.
Alkins, a 6'5" sophomore, missed the first nine games of the season recovering from a broken foot that he suffered in September, and he has missed three other games during the course of the season with soreness in the foot.
Along the way, he's averaged a solid 13.6 points per game, but consistency has been an issue.
At his best, he's capable of going off for 20-plus points like he did against USC on Feb. 10 when he shot 7-for-12 from the field and 4-for-7 from beyond the arc.
At his worst, he's a complete non-factor.
Like he was in the two games prior to that strong performance against the Trojans, when he shot 4-of-20 from the field and scored nine total points in 60 minutes of action.
It's no coincidence that the Wildcats lost both of those games.
Virginia: The Play of De'Andre Hunter
7 of 10
Odds: 4/1
Opposing teams already had to game-plan how to attack Virginia's smothering defense.
Now they might need to start focusing on how to stop redshirt freshman De'Andre Hunter as well.
Georgia Tech coach Josh Pastner has certainly taken notice.
"Credit Virginia and their development, because he’s gotten better," Pastner said, per Jerry Ratcliffe of Cavalier Insider. "He’s a key for them. He’s a hard matchup because he can score from the post, put it on the floor and go by you, and score from the perimeter. You have to be able to guard him."
A 4-star recruit and the No. 91 player in the 2016 recruiting class, according to 247Sports, Hunter has become a key contributor on offense as the season has progressed.
The 6'7" wing is averaging a modest 8.9 points in 19.7 minutes per game on the season.
However, that has jumped up to 10.9 points and 22.9 minutes since the start of conference play, and he went off for 22 points on 8-of-16 shooting and 5-of-10 from distance in 30 minutes of action on Feb. 13 against a tournament-bound Miami team.
The freshman seems to really be hitting his stride, just in time for the tournament.
Villanova: The Play of Omari Spellman
8 of 10
Odds: 4/1
When they're firing on all cylinders, there's not a team in the country that can touch Villanova.
And the recent emergence of Omari Spellman has given them one more dangerous weapon.
The 6'9", 260-pound redshirt freshman has really stepped his game up in the month of February:
- Pre-February: 10.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 26.3 minutes, 46.6 FG%, 41.0 3PT%
- February: 13.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, 31.1 minutes, 58.9 FG%, 56.7 3PT%
That includes a career-best effort against Seton Hall on Feb. 4 when he connected on 6-of-7 three-point attempts and tallied 26 points, 11 rebounds and three blocked shots.
Big things were expected of the 5-star recruit who ranked as the No. 20 prospect in the 2016 recruiting class, per 247Sports, when he stepped onto campus.
But his transition from solid contributor to legitimate impact player gives the Wildcats just one more wrinkle come tournament time.
Michigan State: Avoiding Foul Trouble
9 of 10
Odds: 19/5
Michigan State has to find a way to keep Jaren Jackson Jr. and Nick Ward on the floor.
The two big men have regularly spent large chunks of the first half on the bench after picking up two early fouls, and while the Spartans have depth with Gavin Schilling and Kenny Goins, they're a different team when those two guys are available.
Jackson has fouled out of four games this season and recorded four fouls 12 other times—which has limited him to less than 20 minutes 10 different times.
Despite that, the 6'11" freshman is averaging 11.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game in 22 minutes of action while shooting a blistering 43.4 percent from beyond the arc.
As for Ward, the big 6'8", 250-pound low-post banger has played just 19.6 minutes per contest.
He's yet to foul out this season, but he's tallied four fouls six different times, and they've all come during conference play.
The Spartans do have other weapons outside of that duo.
Miles Bridges is a legitimate Wooden Award candidate, and fellow sophomores Cassius Winston and Joshua Langford are both having terrific seasons.
Still, this is a different Michigan State team when those two big guys are available for 25-plus minutes.
Duke: The Health of Marvin Bagley III
10 of 10
Odds: 3/1
Marvin Bagley III missed his fourth consecutive game on Wednesday night when Duke cruised to an 82-56 win over Louisville.
The freshman standout suffered a right knee sprain against North Carolina on Feb. 8 and still hasn't been cleared to return to action.
"It's a day-to-day thing," coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters. "Marvin has a problem, or else he would play. He's getting better. The thing is, it's not a structural problem. But if we weren't concerned about him having more injury, he'd play. He's not ready. He's getting closer. I don't know when it'll happen. I'm not going to push him."
In his absence, some other players have had a chance to see extended action, which could help the Blue Devils come tournament time.
"It has given opportunities for Marques [Bolden], Javin [DeLaurier], Jack [White] that normally they wouldn’t have," Krzyzewski said after Bagley's third missed game. "For Javin to play 30 minutes in a game and start in late February, that’s invaluable experience as we go forward."
Still, there's little question a healthy Bagley increases the team's odds of winning a title considerably.
Bagley is averaging 21.2 points and 11.4 rebounds while shooting 59.6 percent from the field.
All stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
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