2018 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
With less than two weeks remaining in the 2017-18 men's college basketball regular season, the Virginia Cavaliers are still the projected No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA tournament.
The ACC is also well-represented at the opposite end of the spectrum, as Louisville, Miami and Syracuse are each within three spots of the bubble cut line. These last final days before Selection Sunday will determine whether the league gets seven, eight, nine or even 10 teams into the Big Dance.
As always, we will take a look at the last five teams to make the field, the first five out and a few others on the horizon.
After that, we will present each seeded region, including the subregional locations in which each pod will play, and some commentary on which teams have moved the most in each region. Then we will defend the rankings of the No. 1 seeds, followed by a summary of the field broken up by conference.
Last 5 In
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Last Team In: Syracuse Orange
18-9, RPI: 38, KP: 45, SOS: 27
Saturday's win at Miami was huge for the Orange. After losing a home game to NC State earlier in the week in another bubble versus bubble showdown, they desperately needed to knock off the Hurricanes to get back to .500 in ACC play.
Syracuse still has games remaining against Duke, Clemson and North Carolina, as well as a tough road game against Boston College. This team needs quality wins, and it's certainly getting that opportunity down the stretch. A 2-2 finish would likely be enough for the Orange to reach the Big Dance. Anything less and they'll have some work to do in the ACC tournament.
Second-to-Last: Miami Hurricanes
19-8, RPI: 37, KP: 44, SOS: 56
With all due respect to Middle Tennessee, it's not great that Miami's best win of the season was arguably the neutral-court game against the Blue Raiders in the consolation game of the Diamond Head Classic.
The Hurricanes also have good quadrant 1 and quadrant 2 wins at Virginia Tech and NC State and at home against Florida State and Louisville. But this team did next to nothing in nonconference play and doesn't have a win against a top-four team in the ACC. Factor in disappointing losses to Georgia Tech, Boston College and Syracuse and there's just not much to like here.
If Miami doesn't win at North Carolina next Tuesday, it might be on the wrong side of the bubble heading into the ACC tournament.
Third-to-Last: Providence Friars
17-10, RPI: 36, KP: 69, SOS: 20
This is the most vexing team at the moment. Providence has fantastic home wins over Villanova and Xavier. It also beat Butler and Creighton at home and won a road game against Marquette. The Friars are 5-6 against quadrant 1 and 8-7 against quadrants 1 and 2.
But they also have dreadful home losses to DePaul and Minnesota and a bad road loss to Massachusetts. The first two can be explained away to an extent—a bunch of players were either sick or injured against DePaul; Minnesota was a heck of a lot better in November than it is now—but what the heck happened against the Minutemen?
Providence probably deserves to be a little higher than this, but those three losses are hard to overlook.
Fourth-to-Last: Seton Hall Pirates
18-9, RPI: 26, KP: 40, SOS: 24
Seton Hall narrowly averted disaster with a five-point home win over DePaul on Sunday, snapping a four-game losing streak that sent the Pirates spiraling toward the bubble. Nonconference wins away from home against Texas Tech and Louisville are holding up nicely, but this team has done nothing since early January. Seton Hall is 4-7 in its last 11 games, and the only decent win in the bunch was a home game against bubbly Providence.
Fifth-to-Last: Baylor Bears
16-10, RPI: 46, KP: 31, SOS: 25
Baylor is proof that if you plan on being competitive in the best league in the country, what you do in nonconference play doesn't matter. The Bears played seven quadrant 4 games in November and December, as well as an eighth game against non-D-I Randall University. Their only remotely respectable win was a neutral-court game against Creighton, and they were blown out in losses to Florida and Xavier.
But because they've picked up three quadrant 1 wins (Kansas, at Texas, Texas Tech) in the past 10 days, they're suddenly in excellent shape. They'll need to win two of their remaining four games to stay in the field, which won't be easy. But compared to where the Bears were before starting out 5-0 in February, they'll take it.
First 5 Out
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First Team Out: Saint Mary's Gaels
25-4, RPI: 32, KP: 20, SOS: 134
At this point, there's not much difference between this Saint Mary's team and last year's Illinois State team who was left out of the tournament with a 27-6 record. Each team got one excellent win against the best team in its conference and had a disappointing loss away from home against San Francisco.
The Gaels are now 3-2 overall against quadrants 1 and 2 with two bad losses. If they win home games against Pepperdine and Santa Clara this week and beat BYU in the semifinals of the WCC tournament to face Gonzaga in the championship game, they might still get in with a loss. But losing to the Dons on Thursday put Saint Mary's in a perilous position.
Second Team Out: Louisville Cardinals
18-9, RPI: 51, KP: 36, SOS: 37
Louisville is just 3-9 against quadrants 1 and 2. All three of those wins—at Florida State, vs. Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame—came in the span of seven days in mid-January, and not one of them is that much of a statement. Basically, this team has no great wins and no bad losses, and it's not a good year to have that type of resume.
To get back into the projected field, the Cardinals need to win at least two of their final four regular-season games—at Duke, at Virginia Tech, Virginia, at North Carolina State. Maybe a 1-3 finish with a road win over Duke would be enough to enter the ACC tournament in good shape for the NCAA tournament, but we would advise Louisville to do better than that.
Third Team Out: UCLA Bruins
19-8, RPI: 48, KP: 51, SOS: 65
Fourth Team Out: USC Trojans
19-9, RPI: 41, KP: 52, SOS: 51
This is the second straight projection in which these teams have landed back-to-back in the first five out. Both the Bruins and Trojans went 2-0 last week at home against Oregon and Oregon State, but that wasn't enough to propel them back into the field. In fact, they slipped a couple of spots on the overall seed list with teams like Baylor and Marquette leap-frogging them.
This week, they'll travel to the mountain states for tough road games against Utah and Colorado. Even though the Buffaloes haven't been great this season, that is a tough place to go win a game. And Utah is only slightly further away from the projected field than the Bruins and Trojans.
It wouldn't be surprising in the least if both UCLA and USC go 1-1 this week before the ultimate bubble showdown against one another (at USC) to end the regular season.
Fifth Team Out: Washington Huskies
18-9, RPI: 49, KP: 95, SOS: 38
Here we have yet another Pac-12 team still lingering on the bubble.
Washington fell onto the bubble last week with consecutive losses at Oregon and Oregon State and slips out of the projected field after its home loss to Utah on Thursday. But there's still a respectable chance here, given the remaining schedule.
The Huskies play at Stanford and California this week before home games against the Oregon schools to close out the regular season. If they can beat the Cardinal, they should go 4-0 during that stretch, which would likely be enough.
On the Horizon
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Penn State Nittany Lions
19-10, RPI: 76, KP: 25, SOS: 88
There's a new team surging toward the projected field every week. This time around, Penn State is the bubble team dominating the discussion, but the Nittany Lions still have a fair amount of work to do.
Based on the unquantifiable "eye test," it feels like this is clearly a tournament team. Penn State is 6-2 in its last eight games with a season sweep of Ohio State and two close road losses against Michigan State and Purdue. During this run, the Nittany Lions also got a quadrant 2 win at home against Maryland. Impressive stuff dating back to the final week of January.
Unfortunately, the first 21 games of the season still count, and Penn State was a disappointing 13-8 during that time. Its only quadrant 1 or quadrant 2 win was a home game against Nebraska (RPI: 60). The Nittany Lions also had not-great losses to Wisconsin, Rider, Indiana, Minnesota and Northwestern during this time.
The past few weeks have been huge for Penn State, but this eight-game stretch merely got this team into the conversation. If it wins each of its two remaining games (Michigan, at Nebraska), Penn State would likely be smack dab on the bubble heading into the Big Ten tournament.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
20-9, RPI: 60, KP: 56, SOS: 98
Last week's surging team is now trending in the wrong direction after a Sunday night loss to Illinois (RPI: 180). Nebraska was already a bit of a long shot to reach the tournament due to its lack of quality wins, but it would have remained firmly in the conversation if it had been able to get to 23-8 overall and 14-4 in conference play heading into the Big Ten tournament. At this point, the Cornhuskers will need to get their biggest win of the season in Madison Square Garden.
St. John's Red Storm
13-13, RPI: 70, KP: 71, SOS: 8
Nothing new to report here. St. John's only played one game in the past week, narrowly winning on the road against DePaul. The Red Storm still need to win each of their remaining four games—at Marquette, Seton Hall, Butler, at Providence—in order to have a strong case for a bid. But they haven't lost yet, so we'll keep them on this list for at least one more week.
Utah Utes
17-9, RPI: 50, KP: 60, SOS: 66
The Utes have flown well below the national radar, but road wins over Arizona State and Washington in the past month give them a shot at an at-large bid. Utah has three games remaining, all at home against UCLA, USC and Colorado. A 2-1 finish followed by at least showing up in the Pac-12 tournament might be enough.
Georgia Bulldogs
15-11, RPI: 66, KP: 70, SOS: 45
Georgia won a home game over Tennessee and a road game against Florida in the past seven days. As a result, the Bulldogs have five quadrant 1 wins and four more quadrant 2 victories. The awful losses to Massachusetts and San Diego State keep the Dawgs out of the picture for now, but they have several big opportunities remaining. Don't bury this team just yet.
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East Region (Boston)
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Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 16 Savannah State / Texas Southern
No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Virginia Tech
Boise, Idaho
No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 13 East Tennessee State
No. 5 Rhode Island vs. No. 12 Buffalo
Wichita, Kansas
No. 3 Cincinnati vs. No. 14 Louisiana
No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Baylor
Charlotte, North Carolina
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Bucknell
No. 7 Arizona State vs. No. 10 LSU
Moving Up: LSU Tigers (New to the Field)
15-11, RPI: 75, KP: 62, SOS: 33
Houston and Michigan were two of the biggest winners of the past week, each knocking off an AP Top 10 team to further solidify its spot in the field.
Houston and Michigan also lost nonconference games against LSU, so their surge helps the Tigers look better—as did LSU's win over Missouri on Saturday.
A lot of things about this resume scream, "Doesn't belong in the field!" But LSU now has seven quadrant 1 wins, which is something only eight teams could claim heading into play on Monday. And all seven of those wins have come against teams in the RPI top 30, so it's not like the Tigers are padding that number with road wins over teams that just barely count for that.
They will likely need to go 3-1 down the stretch to remain in the field. The good news is those games—Vanderbilt, at Georgia, at South Carolina, Mississippi State—are about as easy a four-game stretch that any team has had in SEC play this season.
Moving Down: Ohio State Buckeyes (↓ Nine Spots)
22-7, RPI: 20, KP: 17, SOS: 30
What a brutal week for the Buckeyes. They lost by 23 at Penn State and by a dozen at Michigan just one week after a road win over Purdue that put them in a position to win the Big Ten regular-season title outright.
It took 26 games for us to start legitimately buying this team as a Final Four contender, and then it took just two duds on the road for us to start doubting that this team can even make it out of the first round.
As I've noted several times in the past seven weeks, Ohio State has the most volatile seed among top-25 teams. Its best nonconference win was a neutral-court game against Stanford (RPI: 93), and the schedule makers only gave the Buckeyes one regular-season game each against Michigan State and Purdue. To their credit, they won both of those games to soar into the top 16 of the midseason reveal by the selection committee, but the rest of the resume is a house of cards.
That house didn't come completely crashing to the ground yet, but if Ohio State loses to either Rutgers or Indiana here in the final week of its regular season, don't be surprised if it ends up in a No. 8 vs. No. 9 game.
Midwest Region (Omaha)
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Detroit, Michigan
No. 1 Xavier vs. No. 16 Wagner
No. 8 Florida vs. No. 9 Texas
Boise, Idaho
No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 12 Loyola-Chicago
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Northeastern
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 Miami / Providence
Nashville, Tennessee
No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 15 Northern Kentucky
No. 7 TCU vs. No. 10 North Carolina State
Moving Up: North Carolina State Wolfpack (New to the Field)
18-9, RPI: 59, KP: 49, SOS: 64
It was a big week for NC State, which buoyed its previous wins over Arizona, Clemson, Duke and North Carolina with road wins over Syracuse and Wake Forest.
That might not sound like much compared to the caliber of the opponents mentioned in the first half of that sentence, but the Wolfpack had a strange resume devoid of good wins. They had the four great wins, but that's about it. They also had a couple of bad losses and a terrible nonconference schedule.
But by adding a quadrant 1 and a quadrant 2 win to the resume, it validated those previous better wins in a bizarre, bracketology-is-silly-sometimes kind of way. Even though their SOS rank dropped from 58 to 64, they climbed a combined 24 spots in RPI and KenPom with those wins, producing computer numbers much more in line with a team that should be in the field.
NC State finishes the season with four winnable games against Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Louisville. A 2-2 finish would be enough, but the Wolfpack could climb a few lines higher by going 4-0.
Moving Down: Florida Gators (↓ Eight Spots)
17-10, RPI: 63, KP: 33, SOS: 43
Florida's run of unpredictability continued this week with a home loss to Georgia and a road loss to Vanderbilt. The Gators have now been swept by the Bulldogs and have fallen to 5-6 in quadrant 2 games and 1-1 against quadrant 3.
Good thing they're 6-3 in quadrant 1 games, or they would barely be on the NIT bubble.
Florida has wins away from home against Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri. Hard to imagine that team missing the NCAA tournament. But Florida does enter one hell of a season-ending gauntlet—at Tennessee, Auburn, at Alabama, Kentucky—much closer to the bubble than we would have guessed one month ago.
It's not a perfect science, but let's assume each win during that four-game stretch would move the Gators up a seed line, and that each loss would move them down one. Given that premise, they could enter the SEC tournament as a projected No. 4 seed by winning all four games, or they could enter it on the wrong side of the bubble by losing all four games. That sounds about right for what this resume is today.
South Region (Atlanta)
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Charlotte, North Carolina
No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 16 Winthrop / Lipscomb
No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Kansas State
San Diego, California
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Murray State
No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 New Mexico State
Dallas, Texas
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Rider
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 St. Bonaventure
Detroit, Michigan
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Montana
No. 7 Houston vs. No. 10 Butler
Moving Up: Houston Cougars (↑ Nine Spots)
21-5, RPI: 19, KP: 19, SOS: 83
As previously mentioned, Houston was one of the biggest winners this past week thanks to a win over an AP Top 10 team. The Cougars knocked off Cincinnati at home, despite a disappointing showing from Rob Gray Jr.—13 points on 13 shots with four turnovers.
Following that marquee victory up with a 21-point road shellacking of Temple was just the cherry on the sundae.
The Cougars do still have that horrible neutral-court loss to Drexel from back in mid-November, as well as the bad road loss to Tulane one month ago. That keeps them from getting a top-20 seed despite ranking top-20 in both RPI and KenPom. But as long as they avoid disaster in these final two weeks, they're going to get their best NCAA tournament seed since reaching the national championship in 1984.
Moving Down: Purdue Boilermakers (↓ Four Spots)
24-5, RPI: 12, KP: 6, SOS: 44
As luck would have it, there weren't any drastic plummets among teams in this region, but it does give us a chance to discuss Purdue's plunge to the bottom of the No. 2 seed line.
The losses to Ohio State and Michigan State in the lead-up to the top 16 reveal were no big problem, as proven by the fact that Purdue was still on the No. 1 line after them. But those losses did eliminate the safety cushion for the Boilermakers.
Prior to those games, they were a rock-solid top-three team in the country. Even a loss to Rutgers or Iowa probably would not have been enough to knock them from the top line, since there was such a gap between the top three and the rest of the country. But after close defeats at the hands of the Buckeyes and Spartans, any other loss was going to result in some tumbling.
Lo and behold, Purdue immediately lost to Wisconsin to extend its losing streak to three games and to slip onto the border between a No. 2 and 3 seed. The Boilermakers did finally end the skid with a home win over Penn State on Sunday night, but they did not make it look easy. In fact, they have now played eight consecutive games decided by eight points or fewer.
Even if Purdue wins its remaining games against Illinois and Minnesota before beating Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game, it might not have a good enough resume for a No. 1 seed.
West Region (Los Angeles)
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Wichita, Kansas
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Pennsylvania
No. 8 Nevada vs. No. 9 Florida State
Dallas, Texas
No. 4 Wichita State vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Middle Tennessee
San Diego, California
No. 3 Arizona vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Syracuse / Seton Hall
Nashville, Tennessee
No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 15 Stephen F. Austin
No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Marquette
Moving Up: Marquette Golden Eagles (New to the Field)
15-11, RPI: 57, KP: 48, SOS: 15
Marquette only played one game in the last seven days, but it was a huge one. The Golden Eagles stormed back from a 16-point deficit in the first half for a road win over Creighton.
It was their third road win against a quality Big East foe, adding to a collection that already included Seton Hall and Providence. Factor in the home win over Seton Hall, and the Golden Eagles now have four quadrant 1 wins and no terrible losses.
The 11 losses is a bit many at this point in the season, but that's no reason to exclude Marquette from the field. It's simply a product of a team having already played the toughest portions of its schedule. If the Golden Eagles are able to win their next three games against St. John's, DePaul and Georgetown, they should enter the Big East tournament in good dancing position, regardless of what happens in their season finale at home against Creighton.
Moving Down: Oklahoma Sooners (↓ Eight Spots)
16-11, RPI: 34, KP: 38, SOS: 18
The big question with Oklahoma is: How many more losses can it absorb before seriously slipping onto the bubble?
People were outraged when the Sooners were No. 16 in the selection committee's reveal two Sundays ago, and that was before they lost to Texas Tech and Texas and got destroyed by Kansas to fall to 6-9 in Big 12 play.
They don't have any bad losses, though, and they have six quadrant 1 wins—Kansas, Texas Tech, USC, TCU, at TCU, at Wichita State. That's more than enough reason to keep this team comfortably in the projected field. (Remember, Vanderbilt was a No. 9 seed with 15 losses last season.) But it sure has been a while since we were entertaining Oklahoma as a potential No. 1 seed when it was 11-1 at the turn of the calendar year.
As long as the Sooners win remaining home games against Kansas State and Iowa State, there's nothing to worry about. If they lose one of those games and the remaining road game against Baylor, though, they might need to at least reach the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks
22-6, RPI: 6, KP: 11, SOS: 1
Does anyone actually want this spot?
Purdue, Auburn, Texas Tech and Cincinnati have all shot themselves in the foot at least once in the past 10 days, leaving us little choice but to put six-loss Kansas here.
Much has been said in the past few weeks about whether or not the Jayhawks will actually win a 14th consecutive Big 12 regular-season title, but that doesn't much matter as far as projected seeds are concerned. What does matter is the Jayhawks are tied with North Carolina for the most quadrant 1 wins in the nation (nine) and they have more quadrant 1 and quadrant 2 wins (17) than any other team.
No. 3 Xavier Musketeers
24-4, RPI: 3, KP: 12, SOS 5
Despite the loss to Villanova, Xavier remains in great shape for a spot on the top line.
Part of it is that it seems like every other team in the running for a No. 1 seed has suffered at least one loss in the last two weeks, and a home loss to Villanova is no biggie compared to losses to the likes of South Carolina, Wisconsin and Baylor. But the larger part is that this is just a darn fine team and resume. Xavier doesn't have a single bad loss, has seven quadrant 1 wins and has eight more against quadrant 2.
As long as the Musketeers can avoid a road loss to Georgetown or DePaul in the next two weeks, there's a great chance the Big East puts two teams on the No. 1 line.
No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
24-3, RPI: 2, KP: 2, SOS: 10
With Phil Booth out of the lineup for the past seven games, Villanova has been wildly unpredictable. The Wildcats barely beat Marquette before blowing out Creighton and Seton Hall. They lost at home to St. John's, only to rally with a win over Butler. They looked awful in a loss at Providence and looked like the undisputed best team in the country in a road win over Xavier.
With any luck, Booth will return to full health and bring some consistency to this roster. Otherwise, there's no telling what this No. 1 seed is going to do in the NCAA tournament.
No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers
24-2, RPI: 1, KP: 1, SOS: 7
Virginia is one win away from at least locking up a share of the ACC regular-season title. With games this week against Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, there's a good chance we'll be talking about the Cavaliers as the outright league champions before March even begins. It's still incredible what this team has been able to do after losing London Perrantes, Marial Shayok and Darius Thompson from last year's roster.
Feel free to doubt Virginia when filling out your brackets in a few weeks. It sure does seem like everyone is skeptical of the Cavaliers because of previous years. But if Tony Bennett isn't No. 1 on your list of candidates for Coach of the Year, you're doing it wrong.
Seeding by Conference
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In case seeded regions aren't for you and you want to know where the top 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each team's overall seed broken down by conference. The first five out are in italics.
American
11. Cincinnati
13. Wichita State
28. Houston
ACC
1. Virginia
6. Duke
7. North Carolina
15. Clemson
33. Florida State
34. Virginia Tech
39. North Carolina State
45. Miami
46. Syracuse
70. Louisville
Atlantic 10
18. Rhode Island
41. St. Bonaventure
Big 12
4. Kansas
10. Texas Tech
16. West Virginia
24. Oklahoma
26. TCU
35. Kansas State
36. Texas
42. Baylor
Big East
2. Villanova
3. Xavier
21. Creighton
37. Butler
40. Marquette
43. Seton Hall
44. Providence
Big Ten
8. Purdue
9. Michigan State
23. Ohio State
32. Michigan
Pac-12
12. Arizona
27. Arizona State
71. UCLA
72. USC
73. Washington
SEC
5. Auburn
14. Tennessee
17. Kentucky
20. Texas A&M
22. Alabama
25. Missouri
30. Arkansas
31. Florida
38. LSU
West Coast
19. Gonzaga
69. Saint Mary's
Other
29. Nevada
47. Middle Tennessee
48. New Mexico State
49. Buffalo
50. Loyola-Chicago
51. South Dakota State
52. Vermont
53. Murray State
54. East Tennessee State
55. Louisiana
56. Northeastern
57. UC Santa Barbara
58. Rider
59. Montana
60. Northern Kentucky
61. Stephen F. Austin
62. Bucknell
63. Penn
64. Wagner
65. Lipscomb
66. Winthrop
67. Savannah State
68. Texas Southern
KenPom rankings and RPI ratings (courtesy of WarrenNolan.com) current through the start of play on Feb. 19. Records are current through the start of play on Feb. 20.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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