Matchups We Would Love to See in the 2018 NCAA Tournament
The Villanova Wildcats and Purdue Boilermakers have two of the most efficient offenses in men's college basketball, which would make for one heck of a dream matchup in the 2018 NCAA tournament.
As much as people may want to believe the selection committee intentionally sets up juicy matchups, it isn't true. I was part of the media mock bracket a few years ago and can confirm that with all the rules about placement, it would be almost impossible to force specific pairings.
Rather, because rivalries are usually based on proximity and because placement in the bracket is primarily driven by geography (when possible), the first three rounds tend to have a lot of battles between familiar foes. (That's why Kentucky and Louisville often end up in the same region.)
Besides, there are so many potential intriguing matchups every year that the committee couldn't avoid all of them if it tried.
But some dream matchups are better than others, and these are the ones we most want to see in the 2018 men's NCAA tournament.
Based on current seeding projections, some of these could happen in the first round. Others would need to wait until the Final Four. Either way, let's hope their paths cross before too long.
We'll start with potential first-round battles before working up to possible championship pairings.
Note: Each team is allowed a maximum of one dream matchup, though backup options are provided in a couple of cases.
Honorable Mentions
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Xavier vs. Texas Tech
Given where these teams are seeded, this one wouldn't take place any earlier than the Elite Eight. But what a fun showdown it would be between two of the most underappreciated stars in the country: Xavier's Trevon Bluiett and Texas Tech's Keenan Evans.
Diehard college basketball fans are all in on both senior leaders, putting them top-10 in the Player of the Year rankings. But ask most casual fans to name the best players this season, and neither would get mentioned. After a head-to-head battle for the ages, maybe that would finally change.
Kentucky vs. Boise State
Things aren't looking good as far as Boise State's at-large hopes are concerned, but there's still a shot for the Broncos to sneak in as a No. 11 seed, where they could run into the Kentucky Wildcats. If that happens, it would be an intriguing battle between wing-forwards who are potential lottery picks: Kentucky's Kevin Knox and Boise State's Chandler Hutchison.
North Carolina vs. Loyola-Chicago
It wouldn't be a dream matchup for the Tar Heels, but if you're looking for a trendy No. 13 over No. 4 type of first-round upset, here you go. The Ramblers shoot 41.3 percent from three-point range, and North Carolina has infamously struggled with protecting the three-point arc on defense. Even if it doesn't result in an upset, this one could be a fun, high-scoring affair.
Nevada vs. Clemson (or North Carolina State)
As far as national allure goes, this is more of a deep track than a radio hit. However, if your offseason is spent trying to keep tabs on who transferred where and arguing about college basketball's "transfer epidemic," how could you not love this one?
Excluding Donte Grantham, who is out for the year due to a torn ACL, Clemson and Nevada each have seven players averaging at least 2.5 points per game. And on each of those rosters, five of those seven players originally began their college careers elsewhere before joining these transfer-laden titans.
Alternatively, Nevada vs. NC State would be entertaining since two of Nevada's three leading scorers are the Martin twins, who started out with the Wolfpack before joining the Wolf Pack.
Oklahoma vs. Buffalo
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This list would be incomplete without the most electrifying player in the country. However, Oklahoma's defense is such a disaster that it probably cannot be trusted to reach the second weekend of the tournament, so we've got to find a fun first-round matchup for Trae Young.
What could be more fun than watching two of the fastest-paced offenses in the country go back and forth for 40 minutes?
Per KenPom, Oklahoma ranks third in the nation in adjusted possession length on offense, while projected MAC champion and No. 12 seed Buffalo is fifth in that category. As a result, the Sooners are second in the nation in scoring at 88.4 points per game, while the Bulls aren't far behind at 83.7.
And here's a fun fact if you're craving the annual No. 12 over No. 5 upset: Buffalo is 15-1 this season when scoring at least 81 points, while Oklahoma allows 82.2 per game on average.
First to 95 wins?
If both teams end up in the No. 4/No. 5 seed range, the actual dream matchup for Oklahoma is a second-round game against Kentucky. The Wildcats were once considered the favorites to sign Young, and it would be incredible to watch him go up against the long, athletic dudes John Calipari did get. Plus, going for 30 and 10 in the NCAA tournament against Kentucky would be quite the capstone to one of the most memorable seasons ever.
However, both teams are trending in the wrong direction lately and don't seem likely to both end up in this seed range. If anything, a first-round No. 7 versus No. 10 game might be where it happens.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
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We all went gaga over Collin Sexton vs. Trae Young in late January, and this would be another opportunity for Sexton to flex his muscles against a potential one-and-done guard.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker hasn't been quite what was expected from him given his performances at the 2017 Nike Hoop Summit, 2016 Adidas Nations and 2016 FIBA Americas U18. He flew under the radar on the college recruiting sites, but everyone in the NBA mock draft community seemed to think he could play his way into a lottery pick this year. (B/R's Jonathan Wasserman had Alexander-Walker at No. 19 in his preseason mock.)
At 11.4 points per game with modest peripheral numbers, it's hard to imagine that's still a possibility. But with that scoring average, he's one of five Hokies who are putting up double figures on a nightly basis for a team that hasn't gotten enough national attention for its high-efficiency offense. The irony is that it wasn't until Saturday's 61-60 overtime win over Virginia that VT even had a strong case for reaching the NCAA tournament.
Pitting that offense against this stout Alabama defense should make for an old-fashioned "unstoppable force versus immovable object" debate. The fact that it's two wildly inconsistent teams with a freshman phenom in each backcourt only adds to the intrigue.
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Arizona vs. Texas
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It's hard to say when in the tournament this matchup could take place. Arizona is currently in the No. 4/No. 5 seed range, while Texas is languishing somewhere in the Nos. 7-10 seed range. Should those projections hold, the earliest they could meet is the Sweet 16, and that's only if the Longhorns were to knock off a No. 1 seed first.
Maybe they'll both stumble enough down the stretch that this becomes a No. 6/11 first-round matchup.
Regardless of what needs to happen to make this game a reality, there might not be a more intriguing head-to-head showdown than Arizona's Deandre Ayton against Texas' Mohamed Bamba.
From an NBA draft standpoint alone, it would be just about the hottest ticket possible and easily one of the best in recent history.
Last year's faceoff between top-five picks Lonzo Ball and De'Aaron Fox was incredible, but we had seen it earlier in the year. The 2011 tournament gave us No. 1 (Kyrie Irving) vs. No. 2 (Derrick Williams) in the Sweet 16, but Irving barely played that year due to injury. Plus, the main reason Williams went that high in the draft is because Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones III, Harrison Barnes, Terrence Jones and others stayed in school in large part due to the threat of an NBA strike.
Ayton versus Bamba, though, is a head-to-head contest that may well decide which big man gets drafted first (overall?). Even if Texas loses the war—since Bamba's supporting cast isn't anywhere near as good as Ayton's—the Longhorn could make a huge statement to NBA executives by pestering the Wildcat on defense and repeatedly showing how much improvement Ayton needs to make on the defensive end of the floor.
Also, the intensity and reactions from Shaka Smart and Sean Miller would be worth the price of admission.
Duke vs. Arizona State
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Speaking of entertaining coaching matchups, can I interest you in watching arguably the greatest of all time (Mike Krzyzewski) and one of his former players (Bobby Hurley) vehemently disagree with every whistle throughout two hours of defense-optional basketball?
In an ideal world, that's what we'll get in the second round between No. 2 seed Duke and No. 7 seed Arizona State.
(Then again, that's what we thought was coming last year when the selection committee put No. 2 Duke and No. 10 Marquette, with head coach Steve Wojciechowski, in the same pod, but South Carolina had other ideas.)
Everyone knows Duke can put a lot of points on the board with its arsenal of likely one-and-done stars. Everyone also probably knows Arizona State fell apart in its first 10 games of the Pac-12 season, struggling to maintain its high-efficiency offense from the first six weeks of the year.
But did you know the Sun Devils have bounced back a bit, scoring at least 80 points in three straight wins? Or that Duke has been held to 80 points or fewer in five of its last six games after scoring at least 81 in 19 of its first 20?
There's no way to know whether both or neither of these offenses will be in a groove in mid-March, but it ought to be a great battle between the teacher and the student in which both teams have struggled on defense and have shown an ability to score in a hurry.
Kansas vs. Missouri
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If you've been following college basketball for more than a few years, the reasoning for wanting this potential No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup should be self-explanatory.
But in case you need a refresher: Back before the Tigers up and left the Big 12 to join the SEC, Kansas vs. Missouri—aka the Border War—was one of the five best rivalries in college sports. And we're not talking about a Duke vs. North Carolina situation where both teams are usually great and play entertaining games while the fans of both teams generally get along fine.
Kansas and Missouri fans legitimately hate each other and would probably brawl in the stands if this game took place in Wichita.
Even if we were to exclude the rivalry factor, this would be a fantastic second-round game.
Both teams somewhat live and die by the three, but they both defend the arc well too. And the Jayhawks and Tigers are both hopelessly dependent upon a pair of big men—Udoka Azubuike and Mitch Lightfoot for Kansas, Jeremiah Tilmon and Jontay Porter for Missouri—who have dealt with more than their fair share of foul trouble this season. It could come down to who wins the whistle war.
One other matchup for Missouri that would be guaranteed entertainment would be a first-round game against Washington, especially if Michael Porter Jr. is back for the Tigers. That's because Porter originally committed to the Huskies before changing his mind and deciding to stay much closer to home when they fired Lorenzo Romar. But after back-to-back losses to the Oregon schools this week, Washington's spot in the field isn't looking safe in the slightest.
Michigan State vs. West Virginia
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Mid-February is often when one team separates from the pack and emerges as a clear favorite to win the national championship. This year, due to a combination of a nice win over Purdue, a subsequent blowout of Minnesota and a perceived lack of respect from the selection committee with its seeding in the top-16 reveal, that team is Michigan State.
But that doesn't mean the Spartans are perfect.
Far from it, in fact. They still have serious issues with turnovers—both forcing them and avoiding them—and they occasionally have trouble defending the three-point arc. They've also recently had issues with consistency, as Cassius Winston is the only starter who hasn't posted at least one complete dud in the last five games.
The turnovers are the biggest concern, and that makes West Virginia the nightmare matchup for Michigan State and the dream matchup for the viewing public. Press Virginia would be quite the thorn in the side of the Spartans, possibly resulting in their demise on the first weekend of the tournament.
However, Michigan State would also be a terrible draw for West Virginia, as this Mountaineers squad has been a disaster in the half-court offense. Even though the Spartans don't force many turnovers, they do force a ton of contested shots and could capitalize on a West Virginia offense that is no stranger to having shots blocked.
Cincinnati vs. Virginia
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This game wouldn't be for everyone, and that's OK. No matter how many times Virginia fans on Twitter* try to shame you for not properly appreciating the beauty of the pack-line defense, you don't have to enjoy watching a game where the winning team might be lucky to break 50 points.
But if defense wins championships, we should be so lucky as to get two of the greatest defenses of all time.
That's not empty hyperbole. In KenPom history, which dates back to the 2001-02 season, only five teams have had a sub-85 adjusted defensive efficiency: 2009 Memphis (84.2), 2013 Louisville (84.8), 2015 Kentucky (84.4), 2018 Cincinnati (84.6) and 2018 Virginia (82.4).
The Bearcats may well end up falling short of that mark, but it would take a couple of disastrous performances for Virginia to finish at 85 or above. Either way, each of these teams has ranked in the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency in each of the last seven years. Now that they're both defending better than ever, it's about darn time they play each other.
Virginia gets almost all of the nation's "elite defense" attention for holding its opponents to 52.7 points per game on the season. However, dating back to December 10—during which time these teams have a combined record of 32-1—Cincinnati's defense (52.6 points per game; 81.4 points per 100 possessions) has been stingier than Virginia's defense (52.7 points per game; 86.4 points per 100 possessions).
Yes, the Bearcats have faced a more forgiving schedule in the AAC, but they don't get nearly enough respect for what they are doing. The over/under for this potential Elite Eight showdown would probably be around 102 points. There would be stretches where we wonder if either team will ever score again. And it would be glorious.
*Even if you don't agree with it, jump on Twitter during the next Virginia game and complain once or twice about how boring and hard it is to watch this style of play. People who don't even follow you will find you and harass you for being ignorant. I love Virginia basketball, but the vocal minority of that fanbase is something else.
Purdue vs. Villanova
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As far as college basketball history is concerned, this is a bizarre pairing to have atop the national championship wish list.
Normally, it's something like Duke vs. Kentucky. At the very least, it's a game between a blue blood and a team that hopes to establish itself as a national powerhouse—a la North Carolina vs. Gonzaga last year.
Instead, we're hoping for a showdown between programs with a combined seven Final Four appearances.
That's because Villanova and Purdue have two of the most efficient and consistently great offenses in the country.
They aren't mirror images. Villanova doesn't have any big men like Isaac Haas or Matt Haarms. Conversely, Purdue doesn't have a dominant lead guard like Jalen Brunson or a wing-forward with the defensive tenacity of Mikal Bridges. But the Wildcats and Boilermakers are both sensational three-point shooting teams, loaded with veterans who rarely commit fouls or turnovers.
In theory, it would be a clean, back-and-forth, entertaining affair. Regardless of the outcome, it would also cement Villanova as the greatest team of the past half-decade and finally end the debate about whether Purdue can be trusted in the NCAA tournament.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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