
Super Bowl 52: MVP Odds, Predictions After Eagles vs. Patriots Opening Night
If Super Bowl 52 goes the predictable route, Tom Brady will hoist another Lombardi Trophy alongside the MVP award for the New England Patriots, sending the fun story that is the Philadelphia Eagles home to regroup around a recovering star quarterback and leaving the rest of the league searching for answers.
But the 2017 season leading to these playoffs has been anything but predictable, right?
After all, this was the season of oddities, where the Jacksonville Jaguars looked like one of the most dominant teams in the league and quarterbacks such as Case Keenum lead franchises to resounding successes.
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Even more recently, the Kansas City Chiefs and Washington Redskins just shocked the world with a trade for Alex Smith, according to the Kansas City Star's Terez A. Paylor.
It's safe for observers to expect the unexpected between the Patriots and Eagles, regardless of what the two had to say on Opening Night.
2018 Super Bowl
Date: Sunday, Feb. 4
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Kickoff Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Odds: Patriots -5, Over/Under 48
On paper, there aren't many players who can stop Brady from reeling in an MVP award in Minnesota, hence his resounding odds to win the award, according to OddsShark.
- Tom Brady minus-125
- Nick Foles plus-325
- Rob Gronkowski plus-850
- Dion Lewis plus-1800
- Danny Amendola plus-1800
- Jay Ajayi plus-1800
- Zach Ertz plus-1800
Eagles quarterback Nick Foles is the closest thing to an MVP contender here, in large part because of the position he plays, which makes sense considering quarterbacks have outright dominated the individual hardware in the Super Bowl over the years.
Foles certainly has the capabilities to win the award, though most of the credit would have to go to Eagles coach Doug Pederson. It almost sounds unfair, but praise from Patriots head coach Bill Belichick about Pederson, as captured by ESPN.com's Tim McManus, says it all.
"They're solid in every area of the game, they're tough," Belichick said. "They've had several personnel losses—Peters, Sproles, obviously Wentz, Hicks. They've dealt with those things and they continue to roll up a lot of points and play a lot of good football. They don't make many mistakes, they make you beat them, and they execute well."
Foles has benefited the most from the post-Carson Wentz adjustments, completing 77.8 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions over two postseason wins—one a staredown with Matt Ryan, the other a casual dismissal of an elite Minnesota defense.
If Foles can pull off something similar to his three-touchdown performance against the Vikings, he's almost assured an MVP.
That is unless one of his weapons steals the spotlight. Don't put it past running back Jay Ajayi, who posted 73 yards on 18 carries against the Vikings and has three catches in each of his playoff games so far.
Alshon Jeffery might be the biggest random factor for the Eagles outright, though. Bettors might want to take a look at him at plus-2000 considering he caught 57 balls for 789 yards and nine touchdowns this year before catching a pair of scores during the win over Minnesota.
As Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted, though, Jeffery will have his hands full with a familiar foe most of the night:
But therein lies the problem, right?
The Patriots have most individual offensive weapon matchups won here.
Brady, after throwing 32 scores and eight interceptions all year, has another five touchdowns and no picks during the playoffs and is obviously the best quarterback in the matchup.
At running back, the Patriots have various versatile weapons capable of either running well or going out in the short passing attack and emulating the running game itself via chunk catches. If it isn't leading rusher Dion Lewis hurting the Eagles after a regular season in which he tallied nine total touchdowns, it could be a Rex Burkhead or somebody else.
Tight end isn't much of a conversation either, at least not with Rob Gronkowski a part of it. Arguably the best at his position in league history, he appeared in all of 14 games this year, but it was enough to come away as the team leader in receiving after catching 69 passes for 1,084 yards and eight touchdowns.
He touched up the Tennessee Titans for six catches, 81 yards and a score in the team's first playoff game as well before going out with a concussion in the second.
As the odds point out, though, a strong game by one of the Patriots' skill-position players will likely defer the award to Brady. He's the one who led a scoring drive late in a near-upset against the Jacksonville Jaguars and did so without Gronkowski on the field.
Brady will likely have to pull off something similar against an Eagles defense that is as good as, if not better than the Jacksonville unit. The Patriots, with a coach like Belichick and quarterback like Brady, should have plenty of time to digest the Eagles defensively while an inexperienced, Foles-led squad squanders chances to take and sit on a lead.
Prediction: Patriots 28-20, Brady wins MVP

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