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Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Super Bowl LII Odds, Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistJanuary 24, 2018

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) warms up before the AFC championship NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
Charles Krupa/Associated Press

The New England Patriots (13-3) will attempt to become the first repeat NFL champion since they accomplished the feat 13 years ago when they square off against the Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) as solid favorites in Super Bowl LII on February 4.

The Patriots also defeated the Eagles in the second of consecutive Super Bowl wins back then but failed to cover the spread in a 24-21 victory.

     

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as six-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 29.3-16.9 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds info, picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

     

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philadelphia's players and fans have embraced the role of underdog more than any team in recent memory, which has resulted in a pair of home wins and a trip to the Super Bowl in Minneapolis. The Eagles kept hearing how the Minnesota Vikings were going to become the first team ever to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium, and they proceeded to blow them out 38-7 in the NFC Championship Game.

This time, they will need to answer nonstop questions about how to beat five-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady leading up to the big game. Philadelphia will use that as motivation as well and play without any pressure as the underdog again on the Vegas lines.

     

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England has history and experience on its side in this matchup along with some key betting trends. The Patriots needed another fourth-quarter comeback against the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC Championship Game 24-20, falling short of covering the number as eight-point favorites.

But they have gone 9-1 straight up and against the spread the last 10 times they have failed to cover in their previous game, something for which Brady and head coach Bill Belichick deserve a lot of credit. New England has also won four of the past five meetings, and the defense will be facing an overconfident quarterback in Nick Foles.

     

Smart pick

The Eagles are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games as underdogs after back-to-back wins under that scenario heading into Super Bowl LII. They have the defense to hold Brady and the Patriots in check, but handing him another loss here is another story.

Just like at Super Bowl XXXIX in 2005, look for Philadelphia to keep this one close and cover but ultimately fall short on the scoreboard as New England wins its sixth.

     

NFL betting trends

The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Patriots.

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Patriots' last 14 games.

The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.

     

All NFL odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and the OddsShark YouTube page for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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