Edmonton Oilers Outlook: A Reason For Optimism

There are many reasons for optimism for the Edmonton Oilers of 2009-10.

I think I have to eat my words when it comes to goaltending and Nikolai "Shabbybulin."

His recent goaltending efforts remind me a lot of one of my childhood heroes, Arturs Irbe.

I must admit, Shabby has got some game up his sleeve that I didn't expect.

His unorthodox goaltending style and willingness to battle is reminiscent of a goaltending age that is long gone, and the fact that he can still perform at his current level playing his unorthodox style in the new NHL is pretty amazing, I must admit.

(Yeah, he's that old.)

Now there are two prevailing streams of thought out there, when it comes to the Oilers being outshot/dominated but still winning games.

The first is along the lines of shooting percentage analysis, where statistically speaking, the Oilers cannot maintain their current scoring pace, "historically speaking." The other, that the Oil are keeping their opponents to the outside and forcing perimeter shots as opposed to outshooting their opponent, they are merely outchancing them.

Now I think both possibilities are both equally possible, but here's my take based on an analysis of a comparable team:

The story of the 2001-05 Carolina Hurricanes was much like this current Oilers team.

Tracking how the Hurricanes lost in 2001-02 and their transition into a cup-winning team in 2005-06, one can make a lot of comparisons and projections for this current Oilers team. With this, one may even be able to point out some roles yet to be filled on this team besides the oft-cited lack of a veteran checking center.

With the current offense by committee approach, there is still a few things left to be desired to make this a team that can compete with any other team on any given night.

But, a comparison of the current Oilers with the cup-winning Hurricanes of 2005-06 shows that the Oilers aren't far behind.

Let's begin.

Carolina Hurricanes of 2001-02:

After making the cup final in 2001-02 and losing dramatically to Detroit, the Hurricanes had to go about doing some soul searching and managed to miss the playoffs until the 2005-06 season (though to be fair, one year was due to the lockout).

Right now, the Oilers are much like that Hurricanes team with a few exceptions.

There appears to be no templates for the following types of players:

• Veteran Scoring Center —Ron Francis
• Experienced Scoring Winger —Martin Gelinas
• Defined Defensive Specialist —Josef Vasicek—heck, he even had "check" built right into his name

I think it's pretty obvious right now that the lack of a veteran scoring center around these parts has sapped Shawn Horcoff dry for three seasons. He's had to lead the show in the faceoffs department both offensively and defensively and we're finally starting to see the ill effects of it.

Luckily, the Oilers found their depth scoring just in time. The Oilers have already scored 29 goals this season, and that's with Hemsky playing with the flu and Souray out with a concussion. Not too shabby. With the exception of the Calgary games the Oilers should've won, the team is playing ahead of expectations.

Now pretty much everything else on our team right now I'd argue is superior, or just as good:

• Sami Kapanen —Ales Hemsky may not be as fast, but he's got more to his game
• Rod Brind'amour —Shawn Horcoff
• Bates Battaglia —Dustin Penner is clearly better
• Erik Cole —It's yet to be seen if Patrick O'Sullivan can fill this void but he's making a good argument right now that he was well worth picking up last year at the deadline
• Glen Wesley —Wesley was pretty good in his prime but Sheldon Souray is still in great shape save for the concussion
• Sandis Ozolinsh —No comparison to Visnovsky
• David Tanabe —Choose one of Grebs or Gilbert, they can outplay Tanabe in their sleep
• Marek Malik & Aaron Ward —I think Smid has surpassed both these players and though Staios is on the down-curve but still just as useful as either

This Carolina team scored 217 goals in the regular season, whilst this current Oilers team is prorated to score 297.

Now let's fast forward to 2005-06:

This Carolina team came out of the blue and surprised everyone by winning the division, scoring 286 goals (the Oilers had 249 that season) and sported one of the best goaltending tandems in Martin Gerber (who wasn't washed up quite yet) and Cam Ward, an upstart goaltending prospect at the time. It turned out later that spring that having a great duo was the best insurance for both the Hurricanes and the Oilers, as Ward passed Gerber, the experienced goalie, on the depth chart, and due to Roloson's injury, the Oilers had Conklin and Markkanen waiting to take over.

Cue the comparisons:

• Eric Staal —There is currently nobody playing this role in Edmonton, as Shawn Horcoff expected still, to be both the offensive and defensive leader on this team; there is an offense by committee approach right now and this is led by all of Gagner, Cogliano, and of course Brule
• Rod Brind'amour —Shawn Horcoff
• Justin Williams —Our Williams is most likely going to be one of Penner or O'Sullivan
• Erik Cole —See Justin Williams
• Cory Stillman —Though there is no true veteran scoring winger on this team right now, the closest thing to a veteran winger is Ales Hemsky, though he is a poor comparison in terms of style to Stillman
• Ray Whitney —Mike Comrie (even though he's a natural center, his career path compares well to Whitney at this point)
• Matt Cullen —As we did last season, there is no defined defensive specialist playing at the center position
• Craig Adams —Fernando Pisani (though I'm not comparing him to the 05-06 Pisani, who was Jesus on ice)
• Andrew Ladd —J.F. Jacques
• Mark Recchi —None
• Doug Weight —None
• No comparison —Ethan Moreau

On defense, the Oilers lap the Hurricanes of 05-06 pretty badly:

• Frantisek Kaberle —Grebeshkov can clearly do just as well or better than Kaberle at this role
• Bret Hedican —Gilbert may not be as effective physically as Hedican, but he is just as poised or moreso
• Aaron Ward —Staios is a poor man's (or rich man's, citing the contract) Ward but he's our man until further notice
• Oleg Tverdovsky —Either of Souray or Visnovsky puts Tverdovsky to shame, at least at the point in his career of o5-06; mind you, Tverdovsky was a fine defenseman in his prime
• Mike Commodore —Smid and Strudwick, with a touch of Peckham
• Anton Babchuk— Taylor Chorney

The conclusions of cross-referencing with the cup-winning Hurricanes:

• There's no guarantee Oilers will make the cup final or even win the division like the Hurricanes did in 2005-06, but there's no saying the Oil don't have the depth to do it right now or at least make the requisite trades to compete at that level come spring
• The Oilers have a lot of depth between the pipes, with young talent in DesLauriers and proven veteran ability in Khabibulin
• The Oilers have strength on the blue though it is markedly younger than the cup-winning team of the Hurricanes in 05-06
• The Oilers need a couple veteran forwards either by the trade deadline or sooner in the season to share the tough minutes with Horcoff and Hemsky, either that, or prove between now and the end of the regular season that Cogliano and Gagner have what it takes to play those toughs; we don't need a player in the mold of Eric Staal or Ron Francis, but finding help for the top 6 is not a matter of scoring more goals as opposed to gaining more experienced veteran presence
• The Oilers have a plethora of players who can play the grinder roles and still score goals once in a while, when it comes to the Jacques', Stone's, and Pisani's; if the Oilers can unload an expensive contract, they could probably afford a couple more role players
• Ethan Moreau has now become, beyond a fathom of a doubt, a 4th liner in terms of depth and contribution to this team
• The emergence of Smid and the renaissance of Strudwick means that certain defenseman on this team are now deemed expendable

Updated Team Wishlist:

• One veteran center (preferably two), and it doesn't have to be someone like Eric Staal or Ron Francis, just someone like Matt Cullen
• A couple veteran role players, preferably one on the wing and one on the blue
• A depth goaltender in case of injury (the Conklin or Markkanen type of player... perhaps a guy like Wade Dubielewicz?)

(As posted on An Oilers Refinery .)