Bleacher Report Expert Picks for the College Football Playoff
After what has felt like countless months of analysis, anticipation and arguing, the College Football Playoff has arrived. The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are on our doorstep, and it won't be long until we find out whether the Alabama Crimson Tide, Clemson Tigers, Georgia Bulldogs or Oklahoma Sooners are the next national champions.
But what should we expect in the penultimate games of the 2017 season?
Bleacher Report's college football experts—David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller and Brad Shepard—had another meeting of the minds to offer up predictions for the semifinals.
- Will Baker Mayfield throw for more yards than Kelly Bryant and Jalen Hurts combined?
- Which running back will have the best individual performance?
- What factors will decide each game?
- And how many of these squads will be back in the playoff one year from now?
Our experts are on the case to let you know.
Which Under-the-Radar Player Will Have the Most Impressive Performance?
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David Kenyon (@Kenyon19_BR)
Most everyone knows about Clemson's defensive line, but linebacker Dorian O'Daniel will be key in run support and on the pass rush in the Sugar Bowl. Tigers defensive coordinator Brent Venables might not respect the Calvin Ridley-focused Alabama passing game and unleash O'Daniel as a result. Even if the Tide pull out a victory, O'Daniel should be a thorn the entire night.
Adam Kramer (@KegsnEggs)
I'll take Clemson's Tee Higgins, though by no means is his an unknown name. The physically blessed wideout was one of the prized recruits from the Tigers' 2017 class. But in terms of a breakout performance, this is one you can see coming.
All the signs are there. Although Higgins had zero catches against Miami in the ACC Championship Game, his previous two contests were enormous. Look for the true freshman to come up with at least one big play to help Clemson win. Alabama will focus a great deal on Deon Cain and Hunter Renfrow, which could allow Higgins to have a big night.
Kerry Miller (@kerrancejames)
It's hard to stay under the radar when you have more than 700 receiving yards for a title contender, but Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb qualifies. Everyone knows All-American tight end Mark Andrews and Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, but the freshman with 40 receptions for 741 yards and seven touchdowns has been overlooked all season.
Lamb has had five receptions go for at least 40 yards, and he will likely be on the receiving end of one Baker Mayfield bomb in the Rose Bowl. Even if he isn't, he might make an important play on special teams. Lamb hasn't had a big return yet this season, but he is the Sooner primarily responsible for fielding punts. Perhaps he can swing momentum by taking one to the house against Georgia.
Brad Shepard (@Brad_Shepard)
Clemson has so many studs on defense, such as Clelin Ferrell, O'Daniel, Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence, but nobody talks about middle linebacker Kendall Joseph. This is the kind of game in which the third-team All-ACC performer shines. He'll be key in helping the Tigers slow Alabama's rushing attack.
My answer would be Hunter Renfrow, but after his past two games against the Tide, I would say he's not under the radar anymore.
Will Lincoln Riley's Inexperience as a Head Coach Show?
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David Kenyon
What constitutes an error because of inexperience? For example, a failed fourth down in the spotlight might lead to, "Oh, Riley just doesn't know better because he hasn't been in this position." On the other hand, maybe Kirby Smart and Georgia simply had a better play called. Besides, Smart only has one previous year of experience at the helm. This isn't a Riley vs. Saban showdown. Yet.
Adam Kramer
I don’t think it will in this game. That doesn’t mean that Oklahoma is a lock to win, but a loss wouldn’t necessarily fall on his shoulders. (Georgia is really, really good.) Riley has been in huge games already this year and done quite well. It also helps to have the sport’s most diabolical weapon in Baker Mayfield. To me, his presence makes Riley's life much easier heading into a moment this big. Riley should hold up just fine.
Kerry Miller
Though I'm picking Georgia to win the game, I see no good reason to doubt Riley. That's not because I feel he has become a grand master of head coaching in just one season in the role, but rather because it's hard to screw up your play-calling when you have the Heisman winner at QB. Even a 30-year veteran would be content with letting Mayfield throw the ball on virtually every down.
Maybe his inexperience will show in an Andy Reid / Les Miles type of end-of-half clock mismanagement fiasco, but that hasn't been a problem yet for Riley.
Brad Shepard
No. Riley is a dynamite play-caller, and it doesn't matter who he coaches against. Will Georgia's fast, aggressive defense cause him some problems early on? Yes. But he has the perfect maestro for his symphony in Mayfield, who can make things happen even when those plays break down. Riley has gotten an improved performance from his defense as the season has matured, too. This is a big moment, but, remember, it's also big for his counterpart Kirby Smart. Both guys will settle in.
Which Running Back Racks Up the Most Yards in the Semifinals?
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David Kenyon
Nick Chubb should handle the most carries, so I'll favor volume over potential explosiveness. Sony Michel could overtake his fellow senior if he scampers through the Oklahoma defense. Either way, I expect the top rusher to wear a Georgia uniform. Each of the other three playoff qualifiers boasts a top-12 run defense.
Adam Kramer
I'll take a (semi) sleeper. Give me Sony Michel. Georgia's second tailback might be the most talented offensive player on the team. Assuming he is healthy coming off an injury in the SEC Championship Game—and it sounds like he will be—it would not be shocking in the least to see him break out in an even bigger way against Oklahoma. He's averaging more than seven yards per carry for the year, and I get a sense that he's ready to pop before he heads to the NFL. Nick Chubb might have something to say about that, though.
Kerry Miller
It has to be one of Georgia's running backs, right? They're the only ones not facing a top-12 rush defense, and they have the least mobile starting QB, meaning they'll get the largest percentage of designed run plays.
But rather than Chubb or Michel, I'll take D'Andre Swift. The freshman speedster has led the Dawgs in rushing twice this season, including running for 88 yards on just seven carries in the SEC Championship Game. Oklahoma rarely gives up long rushing plays, but look for Swift to break free for a 35-yard run at a critical juncture in the game.
Brad Shepard
This playoff has a lot of really good run defenses, so we're liable to see some low individual totals, especially considering most of these teams have stables of runners to throw at each other. Oklahoma probably has the worst defense of the bunch, and Georgia has a stout group, led by Chubb. But I like fellow Bulldogs senior Michel to get his share of carries and a couple of breakout runs. I'll go with Michel to have slightly more than Alabama's Damien Harris and Clemson's Travis Etienne.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
More Passing Yards: Baker Mayfield or the Entire Sugar Bowl?
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David Kenyon
I'm pretty confident in saying Mayfield. For the Sooners to win, he'll probably need to carry the offense because it's unlikely OU will successfully run the ball. And if Oklahoma trails for most of the game, Riley may veer from the running game entirely. There are worse strategies than trusting the Heisman Trophy winner.
Adam Kramer
Let me first say I adore this amazing question. Seriously, this is superb, and I took some time to think this through. But I will go with the Sugar Bowl and its TWO quarterbacks. Kelly Bryant is coming off one of his best performances, and I could see Clemson having to throw against Alabama—something its done quite well over the past two years. And while Jalen Hurts seems unlikely to produce a 300-yard game against one of the nation’s best defenses, I could see him eclipsing 200 passing yards. This one will likely be close, but give me the two QBs.
Kerry Miller
For the first three quarters, I would go with Mayfield. But in the fourth quarter of the Sugar Bowl, either Bryant or Hurts (or both) will be throwing to overcome a deficit and will sneak past Mayfield's total. It'll be close, though. Give me Mayfield with 375 yards and the Sugar Bowl with roughly 410.
Brad Shepard
Mayfield. Hurts and Bryant don't look to throw the ball a lot. It will not be easy for Mayfield, as he's facing the nation's second-ranked pass defense. However, the Bulldogs aren't perfect against the pass, and Mayfield is the best quarterback in the game. If the Sooners are going to win, he's going to have to carry the load through the air. I think Mayfield will go for about 350 yards, and the Sugar Bowl will wind up with somewhere around 335 overall. Go with Baker by a baker's dozen.
Will Oklahoma's Defense Do Enough to Beat Georgia?
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David Kenyon
Yes. Barely. And only because Mayfield is leading the offense. I don't anticipate the Sooners will play a memorable game on defense, but they'll give Mayfield a fighting chance with a couple of early stops (or even field goals). Georgia has a terrific defense, but it's probably not going to faze Mayfield. He picked apart a vaunted Ohio State unit earlier this season and assuredly doesn't lack confidence entering the Rose Bowl.
Adam Kramer
I’m picking Georgia, so the answer sort of has to be no, doesn’t it? Mayfield will produce enough big plays to keep the Sooners in the game, but the obvious questions should turn to the other side of the ball. While Georgia is capable of the big play, Oklahoma should be more concerned about time of possession and keeping the Bulldogs off the field for an extended amount of time. (If I were game-planning against Oklahoma, this is what I would do.) Can Oklahoma force enough three-and-outs to give its quarterback the ball? While it’s easy to focus on total yardage, I worry more about the sheer rhythm of the game itself.
Kerry Miller
Everyone is obsessed with finding out whether Mayfield or Georgia's secondary wins the battle when the Sooners have the ball, but Oklahoma's inability to shut down the Bulldogs offense will be the reason the SEC gets at least one team into the national championship. Jake Fromm doesn't throw a ton, but he has the fourth-best QB rating in the country when he does. And Georgia's five-headed rushing attack will be too much for the Sooners.
Brad Shepard
It's hard to predict the winner of this game because the styles are so contrasting. It looks like Georgia's hard-nosed offense against a struggling-on-paper Sooners defense is where the biggest edge in this game lives, but OU has improved. I see this game getting in the low- to mid-60s in combined points, and that tempo favors the Sooners. If I'm Georgia, I worry about my freshman quarterback, and OU has no worries in that area. I think Baker leads OU to one more score than the Dawgs, but that's a toss-up guess.
What X-Factor Dictates the Outcome of Rubber Match Between Alabama and Clemson?
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David Kenyon
Rather than identifying a player, I'm looking at third-down execution as the biggest factor in this matchup. Clemson had a 37.5 conversion rate in every game except for one, the loss to Syracuse. Opposing offenses reached a 40 percent mark just twice, and, yes, Syracuse was one. LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn all tested Alabama by sustaining drives. Whichever team wins the third-down battle should secure a hard-fought win.
Adam Kramer
I’ve already picked Tee Higgins as a potential breakout player, but I’ll go to the other side of the ball to keep things interesting. I had the chance to sit down earlier this year with Clemson defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, who is a 335-pound man with roughly 18 percent body fat. His size is extraordinary, and I feel like his presence in the middle of the line is the perfect antidote to Alabama’s style of play.
But here’s the kicker: He hasn’t been healthy all season. I think the month off will help him immensely, and I could see Lawrence altering the Alabama game plan by his lonesome. (It doesn’t hurt that he plays alongside multiple first-rounders, either.)
Kerry Miller
This is something I've been worried about all season, and I think it finally comes back to bite the Crimson Tide in the biggest game of the season: There is no No. 2 receiver on this team. Calvin Ridley is the only player on Alabama's roster who finished the season with more than 14 receptions. Part of that is because the Tide didn't need to throw often, but that doesn't change the fact they don't have a second reliable wideout.
Clemson's front seven is plenty good enough to keep Alabama's running game in check. If the Tigers focus all of their pass-defense energy on stopping Ridley, it's going to be tough for Alabama to move the ball. That will be enough to propel Clemson into a third consecutive championship game.
Brad Shepard
Can Alabama protect Jalen Hurts? The Tide's offensive line has been up and down, and Hurts struggles miserably when he's under duress. Let's face it: That's where Clelin Ferrell and the Tigers thrive, and they'll be dialing up heat all night. If the Tide can weather that storm against the best defensive line in the nation—three first-team All-ACC players—Hurts will be able to do enough downfield to ensure an offensive balance. Alabama will score points in that scenario and win. But if Hurts has to do a lot on the run, this is Clemson's game.
Which Playoff Team(s) Will Be Back in Next Year's Final Four?
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David Kenyon
Without knowing NFL draft declarations, I'll reserve judgment on Clemson and Georgia. I think Mayfield's departure will drop Oklahoma from "really good" to "not quite as really good but still very good." Hard-hitting stuff, indeed. I'm most confident in Alabama because Jalen Hurts will be back and Saban never fields a bad defense. That's a proven CFP-worthy formula.
Adam Kramer
I'll say two. Clemson and Alabama will both lose a great deal of talent, although both have a lot of young, promising players coming back. This is such an obvious, chalky response, but I do feel like both could be primed to have big years once again. Clemson's path in the ACC feels clearer than Alabama's, but Nick Saban has managed it plenty before.
The loss of Mayfield is enough for me to tentatively remove Oklahoma from next year's playoff. Quarterback Kyler Murray could have something to say about that, but that feels safe-ish in the moment. And Georgia will likely lose a handful of great running backs and likely linebacker Roquan Smith. Still, Georgia will have (at least) one young, improving quarterback and a supremely gifted roster. While I will leave them out of the playoff right now, by no means would an encore appearance surprise me. This team is going to be really good for a while.
Kerry Miller
All four of these teams have a realistic shot at getting back next season, but I think both Oklahoma and Georgia fall short. The Bulldogs are losing at least six defensive starters, likely seven if and when Roquan Smith declares for the draft. They'll also need to replace several key pieces on offense. And though Kyler Murray is a more than capable QB for the Sooners, they'll slip enough without Mayfield to miss next year's playoff.
Alabama and Clemson will be back, though, potentially setting up a fourth consecutive meeting. And even though nobody asked, give me Michigan and Ohio State as the other two teams reaching next year's playoff.
Brad Shepard
Clemson is young and talented, and remember: This was supposed to be a "rebuilding" year. It's beginning to look like this is going to be a yearly occurrence for a while under Dabo Swinney, so you'd better get used to it. They'll have some key losses on defense, but the Tigers have so much depth that they'll reload.
Georgia loses 31 seniors, and the Sooners won't have Mayfield anymore, so those teams could take a dip. But what would a playoff season be like without Nick Saban? If you bet against Alabama being in the Top Four, you'll normally lose. We could be looking at Round 4 next year.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
