Fantasy Football Week 17: Matt Camp's BS Meter
With only one week left in the NFL regular season and the majority of fantasy championships decided in Week 16, this is a good time to look back on 2017 to form some early opinions for 2018.
Even though he's had just four starts for the San Francisco 49ers, Jimmy Garoppolo looks like he was well worth the price the 49ers paid to the New England Patriots. A significant step up in competition to the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't faze Garoppolo, which was a huge confidence-booster following an impressive performance in an upset victory. He may have already graduated from streamer to starter.
Garoppolo's rise to prominence is a great example of what you can find on the waiver wire. If you intended to stream all year or had to make up for the losses of Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, a player like Garoppolo shows that even the most unlikely of options can fill your starting QB slot.
The B.S. Meter is breaking down eight of the most pressing issues in fantasy football heading into 2018. The statements will be rated from 1 to 10, with 1 being completely true and 10 being total B.S.
Note: All fantasy stats used to calculate finishes are from FantasyPros. All advanced stats are calculated using data from Pro Football Reference. Snap counts are also from Pro Football Reference. All stats are based on a points-per-reception (PPR) format.
Todd Gurley Has Cemented Himself as the Top Fantasy RB for 2018
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This won't be much of an argument for those who rode Todd Gurley to a fantasy championship, but if you need some convincing, check out how amazing Gurley was in 2017.
Coming into Week 16, Gurley was already the top RB in non-PPR and PPR formats. He saved his best performance of the season for the biggest fantasy week of the year, rushing 22 times for 118 yards and catching 10 of 13 targets for 158 yards. Not only that, he also managed receiving touchdowns of three yards and 80 yards.
According to Randall Liu, the NFL's Senior Director of Football Communication, Gurley was only the third player in NFL history to rush for 100-plus yards and post 150-plus receiving yards in the same game. Ollie Matson of the Chicago Cardinals did it in 1954 and Herschel Walker did it in his first year with the Dallas Cowboys in 1986.
Through 15 games, Gurley has six outings of 100-plus rushing yards and eight of at least 88 yards on the ground and 13 rushing TDs. He accounted for multiple rushing TDs on four occasions.
While Week 16 marked the first time Gurley had at least 100 receiving yards, he had at least 50 yards through the air six times. He also had at least five receptions in six games and had at least three receptions in all but three games. Gurley's three receiving TDs in the last two weeks brought him up to six receiving TDs on the season and 19 TDs overall.
Gurley's average receiving stat line is 4.3 receptions, 52.5 receiving yards, 0.4 receiving TDs and 5.8 targets. On the ground, he averages 18.6 carries, 87 rushing yards, 4.7 yards per carry and 0.87 rushing TDs per game. That puts him an absurd 25.6 fantasy points per game in PPR formats.
To put that into perspective, Jordan Howard, who is a top-12 RB for the season, is averaging 13.1 fantasy points per game. So while both players would be in the RB1 tier of a 12-team league, Gurley is averaging nearly double the fantasy points per game.
Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara and Le'Veon Bell may also be in the mix for the No. 1 RB spot in 2018, but none of them have the same credentials as Gurley. Obviously, you can't assume Gurley will easily replicate his 2017 performance, but he'll have a great opportunity to do so by remaining in a stable and thriving Los Angeles Rams offense. Gurley might be the fantasy MVP and NFL MVP.
B.S. Meter on Gurley being the top fantasy RB for 2018: 1/10
Jimmy Garoppolo Will Be a Top-12 Fantasy QB in 2018
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At first glance, a 5-10 team wouldn't elicit a lot of positive thoughts, but the San Francisco 49ers aren't a typical 5-10 team. That's because they made a deadline deal to acquire Jimmy Garoppolo from the New England Patriots before Week 9.
At the time, the 49ers had an 0-8 record and any chance at contending for a playoff spot was long gone. That allowed them to prepare Garoppolo for a few weeks before throwing him into a less-than-ideal situation. The move has paid off better than anyone imagined, which has made Garoppolo an intriguing fantasy asset heading into 2018.
After a very brief appearance against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12, Garoppolo's first start came in Week 13 when the 49ers visited the Chicago Bears. Surprisingly, Garoppolo attempted 37 passes in that game, with 26 completions for 293 yards and an INT that wasn't his fault. The 49ers won 15-14 for only their second victory of the season.
Garoppolo followed that up with 334 yards, a TD and an INT on 20-of-33 passing in a win over the Houston Texans. He then made it three in a row by completing 31 of 43 passes for 381 yards and a TD in a come-from-behind victory over the Tennessee Titans. During that three-game span, he averaged 14.7 fantasy points per game, which made him the No. 13 fantasy QB.
If you streamed Garoppolo during that stretch, he came through, but if you bailed on him with the Jacksonville Jaguars on the schedule in Week 16, it was justifiable. Jacksonville ranked No. 1 in passing yards allowed, points allowed and sacks.
In his toughest matchup to date as the 49ers starter, Garoppolo had arguably his best performance, with 242 yards, two TDs and an INT on 21-of-30 passing and a one-yard rushing TD. The Jaguars let up a season-high 38 offensive points to the 49ers, which is another feather in Garoppolo's cap.
The 49ers will get Pierre Garcon back in 2018 to pair with Marquise Goodwin and George Kittle as the top options in the passing game. Plus, the 49ers will likely add more weapons for him. Kyle Shanahan has often been a fantasy-friendly coach, and this strong finish may be the start of a strong fantasy career for Garoppolo.
B.S. Meter on Garoppolo being a top-12 fantasy QB in 2018: 3/10
Le'Veon Bell Will Remain a Top-Five Fantasy RB
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It seems like ancient history now, but Le'Veon Bell sat out the entire preseason hoping for the Pittsburgh Steelers to give him a long-term deal as opposed to playing on the franchise tag. That didn't happen, so while he's making more than $12 million for 2017, he'll be a free agent heading into the 2018 season.
Bell has been worth the hefty price tag with another strong season. He's already set a career high with 321 carries for 1,291 yards and nine rushing TDs. That means he'll have a chance to eclipse his career high of 1,361 rushing yards set in 2014, which was the only year he played all 16 games.
He's already set a new career high in rushing TDs and can break his career-high for total TDs if he scores in Week 17. Bell has four 100-yard rushing efforts and nine games of at least 75 rushing yards.
In addition to breaking rushing records with one game left in the season, Bell has already topped his receptions record, having reeled in 85 after catching 83 passes in 2014. He has nine games with at least five receptions, including the last seven games. He has at least 40 receiving yards in eight games including five of the last six weeks.
Bell trails Antonio Brown in every receiving category, but he is second on the team, with 106 targets and 85 receptions. That's a significant lead over Martavis Bryant (77 targets) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (49 receptions).
Over his five-year career, Bell has been one of the busiest RBs in the league, but he has missed 17 games due to suspension, knee injuries and other various ailments. He turns 26 in February, so he's still fairly young, but with 260-plus carries and 75-plus receptions in three of five seasons, he's been worked hard, and especially so in 2017.
The Steelers are well aware of good Bell is but also how much time he's missed in five seasons. Some team will pay Bell what he wants, but will it be Pittsburgh? Bell would be a lot easier to project for fantasy if he was back there, and he should still be one of the top fantasy backs off the board in 2018 regardless of his home.
B.S. Meter on Bell remaining a top-five fantasy RB: 4/10
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
The Seahawks Will Continue to Frustrate Fantasy Owners
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In a must-win game, the Seattle Seahawks did enough to beat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. It kept Seattle's playoff chances alive and eliminated Dallas from postseason contention, although it was hardly a confidence-inducing win. The 21-12 victory produced just 14 points from the offense, continuing an alarming trend from this team.
Russell Wilson threw a pair of TDs, but he completed just 14 of 21 pass attempts for 93 yards and added 29 yards on nine carries. In the last two weeks, Wilson has 235 yards and three TDs on 28-of-51 passing. Wilson has failed to throw for at least 200 yards in five games and didn't complete 60 percent of his passes in seven games.
Wilson continues to supplement his fantasy stats with consistent rushing production, though. Through 15 games, he has 550 yards and three TDs on 90 carries. He's been one of the best fantasy QBs for the duration of the season, but his ability to turn something out of nothing with his legs is more beneficial to fantasy owners than the sustainability of the Seahawks offense.
Other than Wilson, the passing game has been somewhat annoying, especially in recent weeks. Doug Baldwin had just four receptions for 35 yards on six targets against the Cowboys, but he salvaged a solid fantasy performance with a TD.
In the last six games, Baldwin's catch totals are: 2, 2, 5, 3, 1, 4. He had at least 50 yards in only two of those games, but was saved by three TDs. With 71 receptions for 901 yards and six TDs on 111 targets coming into the final week of the season, he'll need to break out of his funk for another 1,000-yard season. Baldwin went for 75-plus yards just six times this season, including just two 100-plus-yard games.
Jimmy Graham has been almost solely surviving on TDs, especially in the last five weeks. In the last three games, Graham has two receptions for 2 yards and a TD on six targets. In the last five games, he has eight receptions for 62 yards and three TDs on 16 targets. Graham has scored 10 times in 2017, but he has just five games with at least five receptions and another five outings with at least 50 yards. He tends to disappear too often, which makes him too TD-reliant to completely trust for fantasy.
Seattle never found an answer to its backfield struggles once Chris Carson was lost to a broken leg in Week 4. While Carson has a chance to return for the playoffs, his small sample size of decent production isn't enough to consider him the clear lead back for 2018. From a talent standpoint, the backfield must be addressed, as the Seahawks have been unable to rely on any of their backs to perform and stay on the field.
A coaching change might be the best way to help the offensive woes. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell hasn't been able to establish any kind of identity and has been bailed out many times by Wilson's playmaking ability. Perhaps missing the playoffs or an early exit from the postseason would facilitate that change.
Wilson can only do much without the Seahawks addressing their needs. This will be a situation to keep a close eye on in the offseason.
B.S. Meter on Seahawks continuing to drive fantasy owners nuts: 5/10
Andrew Luck Will Return to His Pre-Injury Form
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When Andrew Luck had offseason shoulder surgery before the 2017 season, he was expected to be ready for the start of the regular season. Uncertainty about his return started shortly before training camp and only got worse as his absence lingered throughout August. The closest we got to positive news came when the Indianapolis Colts decided against keeping Luck on the PUP list to open the regular season, which would have kept him out for at least the first six weeks of the year.
Then, Luck was ruled out for Week 6 and the team announced Luck dealt with soreness when throwing, which was the first sign of a setback. He remained out of practice and was ruled out for Weeks 8 and 9 before the Colts finally placed him on injured reserve. Shortly afterwards, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported Luck's shoulder "stopped getting better," which led to the signal-caller seeking out second opinions.
According to Chris Mortensen of ESPN, Luck will go into a throwing program. Based on Mortensen's report, if the pain comes back, Luck may need surgery to relocate his biceps tendon attached to the labrum that was fixed almost a year ago, which could involved a recovery of three to six months.
If you're looking for some good news on Luck's fantasy value for 2018, it doesn't exist. He hasn't thrown a pass in a game of any kind since Week 17 of last season, which means a very lengthy layoff if he's able to return at some point in the preseason or start of the regular season.
At his best, Luck is one of the best fantasy QBs in the league, but those expectations have to be thrown out the window with such a long absence and what could be multiple surgeries. Taking into account a poorly constructed team that gave up 55 sacks in the first 15 games of 2017, nothing can be assumed on Luck.
B.S. Meter on Luck returning to his pre-injury form: 7/10
Dak Prescott Deserves All of the Blame for the Cowboys' Struggles
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The Dallas Cowboys were eliminated from playoff contention with their 21-12 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16. After losing their first three games without Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys rebounded with three straight wins heading into Elliott's return against the Seahawks.
No one was surprised when Elliott received 24 carries, which he turned into 97 yards in addition to four receptions for 21 yards on seven targets, but it wasn't enough to save what was an otherwise ugly effort from the Cowboys offense.
The blame is easy to put on Dak Prescott, yet he's not the only problem. Even in ideal conditions, which he didn't have for most of the season, Prescott was likely to regress from a very clean performance as a rookie.
Last year, he completed 311 of 459 pass attempts (67.8 percent) for 3,667 yards, 23 TDs and just four INTs in a little more than 15 games (he mostly rested in Week 17). Through 15 games of this season, he's completed 291 of 460 attempts (63.3 percent), with 21 TDs to 13 INTs. That includes just 394 yards, no TDs and four INTs in the last two weeks.
In six games without Elliott, the Cowboys went 3-3. During that time, Prescott failed to throw for 200 yards four times and had just five TDs to seven INTs. Besides Elliott's absence, the team worked through multiple injuries along the offensive line, including LT Tyron Smith, which exposed weaknesses in their offense as a whole.
Dez Bryant hasn't had a 100-yard effort all season and has just one game with at least 75 yards. In more than half his outings this season, Bryant failed to record five receptions. He still leads the team with 124 targets, 66 receptions, 815 yards and six TDs.
Drops have been a problem for Bryant, including in the loss to the Seahawks. When asked about the missed connections with Bryant, Prescott told Clarence Hill Jr. of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, "I think I have to throw him a better ball. Just put it right there on his face mask and don’t give him a chance to drop it, I guess."
Prescott hasn't made many controversial statements in his two seasons, so that comment is telling.
No other Cowboy has 600 receiving yards, which highlights just how weak the weapons are in this offense. With Bryant no longer at the top tier of WRs and little help to pick up the slack, Prescott doesn't have a big margin for error.
He must clean up his mistakes, but the Cowboys need to do more to help out their young QB. Entering 2018, Elliott looks like the only Cowboy you can draft with high expectations.
B.S. Meter on Prescott deserving all of the blame for the Cowboys struggles: 8/10
Ameer Abdullah Should Be the Top RB in Detroit
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A foot injury kept Ameer Abdullah out for all but the first two games of the 2016 season. He returned for 2017 in line to be the lead back for the Detroit Lions with his health issues behind him.
Abdullah led the Lions in carries in each of the first 11 games. During that time, he rushed for 505 yards and three TDs on 150 carries, which averages out to 3.4 yards per carry. During that same span, he caught 20 of 27 targets for 133 yards and a TD. A neck injury kept him out for two games, but it also allowed the Lions to turn to Theo Riddick and Tion Green to take over the backfield.
Green has only been active for the last four games, but in that span, he rushed 33 times for 144 yards (4.4 yards per carry) and two TDs.
Riddick has just 115 yards on 35 carries in the last four games, but he did score three rushing TDs to equal Abdullah's total for the season. Riddick's primary source of production has come as a receiver. He has 51 receptions for 432 yards and two TDs on 68 targets for the season. Riddick has proven he can be a reliable contributor as a receiver, but not much else.
Green has looked good in a small sample size, but that doesn't mean he's the answer to the team's rushing woes. What is apparent is that Abdullah isn't cut out to lead this backfield anymore, and the Lions should be in the market for a new lead back in 2018.
B.S. Meter on if Abdullah should be the top RB in Detroit: 9/10
You Must Use an Early-Round Pick on a Quarterback
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According to ADP data from MyFantasyLeague.com, six QBs had average draft positions within the top 60 of fantasy drafts. Those were: Aaron Rodgers (14.18), Tom Brady (21.68), Drew Brees (33.02), Matt Ryan (41.04), Russell Wilson (54.64) and Derek Carr (59.62). Of those six, only Wilson and Brady will be top-six QBs heading into the final week of the season.
A broken collarbone cost Rodgers almost 10 games, so he was a major bust, but injuries can't be predicted. Brady didn't go that far behind Rodgers, and while he'll have a decent chance to finish among the top-five QBs, he's been slumping over the last month. He has four TDs to five INTs and only one game with more than 260 yards in the last four weeks.
With an improved defense and outstanding rushing attack, Brees has just 506 attempts in 15 games. He has at least 627 attempts in nine of his last 10 seasons, so volume hasn't been there for him to produce huge fantasy numbers.
Ryan has just 19 TDs to 12 INTs and 3,778 yards on 484 attempts, so he may struggle to finish as a top-15 QB. Carr and the Oakland Raiders have been major disappointments all season, so he'll also struggle to finish inside the top 15 of fantasy QBs.
Meanwhile, Alex Smith is almost a lock to finish as a top-five fantasy QB, and his ADP was of 160.46 as QB24, which means he likely went undrafted in many leagues. Even though he'll miss the final three games of the season, Carson Wentz could still be a top-10 QB. He had an ADP of 125.5 as QB18. Deshaun Watson averaged 24.1 fantasy points per game in his seven appearances. Wilson is the No. 1 QB for the season with a 21.8-point average.
If you throw in names like Jared Goff, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, Josh McCown and Jimmy Garoppolo, it's pretty clear taking a QB early is a bad use of resources. There are plenty of options to get late in drafts and/or stream throughout the season with a high level of success.
B.S. Meter on if you must use an early-round pick on a QB: 10/10
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
