Best and Worst Moves Chelsea Can Make in the Transfer Window
The countdown begins. We can hear the clock ticking down by the second as the January transfer window approaches.
It's always an intriguing time of year as clubs have to double up on their plans. On one hand, moves are made to negotiate the next six months to the end of the season; on the other, transfers are made with long-term benefits in mind.
Get both right and clubs can reap the benefits beyond the current campaign, as Chelsea can testify.
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Take the signing of Nemanja Matic in January 2014. Not only did the Serb's return to west London cement the Blues' Premier League title challenge that season, it built the platform for them to eventually be crowned champions a year later.
Equally, mistakes can be made. After spending £50 million on Fernando Torres in January 2011, Chelsea were left feeling the pinch long after the excitement turned to a sobering realisation they had been sold a dud.
So how do clubs decide the best and worst moves to make? Well, if the Chelsea hierarchy are wondering, we've listed some of those they must consider in January.
Best Moves
1. Extend Eden Hazard's contract
In February, it will be three years since Eden Hazard signed an extended deal at Chelsea to keep him at Stamford Bridge until the summer of 2020.
Now, contracts in football are no protection against a player leaving a club. The Belgium international's deal may well expire in two-and-a-half years, but it doesn't mean known admirers will be put off. In fact, they'll probably be more interested than ever before.
The only protection contracts offer clubs is regarding transfer fees. The longer a player is tied down, the more money they can demand. By that measure, Hazard will feel attainable for the likes of Real Madrid.
With a year less to run on his deal, the power is gradually shifting from club to the player, and Hazard will be able to dictate his future more so in the summer than he has at any time in his Chelsea career.
Chelsea aren't Arsenal. They've proved with the recent sales of Diego Costa and Matic they are willing to sell if the price is right, regardless of the bidding club. And where Hazard is concerned, will they change tack and not cash in while they can? Their business model doesn't suggest so.
The Gunners are notorious for allowing the contracts of their big stars to run down. Manager Arsene Wenger will be faced with the dilemma in January of gambling on Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil signing extensions or leaving on a free in the summer.
If the latter happens, Arsenal would have lost north of £100 million in transfer fees for the pair. It's a crazy situation.
So without a new deal before the end of this season, where does that leave Chelsea and Hazard? The more his current contract is allowed to remain in place, the more risk the club faces of being high-balled in negotiations, with quite the opposite happening in the transfer market.
Purely from a business perspective, Hazard has to be tied down to a new deal. For football reasons, Chelsea can't play a game of cat and mouse with their best player.
2. Add more firepower in attack
Chelsea's front line was already looking thin at the start of this season, with just Michy Batshuayi and Alvaro Morata to call upon as strikers.
Manager Antonio Conte's switch to a 3-5-1-1 formation has seen Hazard become the secondary striker, but even with that new system, it's heavily reliant on Morata as the main frontman. Outside of him, there isn't another specialist at Stamford Bridge capable of leading the line effectively.
Now that Chelsea have qualified for the knockout rounds of the Champions League, they need to find another striker capable of fitting their system. Juggling Premier League and European commitments with what they have isn't going to be possible.
Without that extra firepower, Chelsea run the risk of slipping outside of the top four again. With their Champions League ambitions, they will be spread too thinly at the business end of the season, which will prove catastrophic for their campaign.
After a frustrating market last summer, the Blues can't afford to waste another transfer window.
3. Show Conte the club's ambition
As much as signing another striker is important for the immediate future, Chelsea have to show their manager they match his ambition.
Conte's frustration with a lack of business last summer has been a talking point since the moment Chelsea lifted the Premier League trophy in May. The story has rumbled on, gathering pace and leading to questions over his Stamford Bridge future, per Neil Fissler of the Daily Express.
While the manager has craved more faces in his squad, the board has been more hesitant in the transfer market. The policy has been a case of one in, one out, which we saw with Morata replacing Diego Costa upfront and Tiemoue Bakayoko signed to replace Matic.
Those moves have helped the gradual evolution of Conte's team. But now Chelsea have to build on it and show the sort of ambition that saw them dominate English football in the mid-2000s.
That means adding some depth to transform Conte's squad into the elite setup he craves. We need only look at how Manchester City backed Pep Guardiola last summer to see the rewards that brings.
Now is the time for Chelsea to mirror that and keep Conte happy; they have to show the Italian they mean business if they are to keep him in west London beyond this season.
Too often Chelsea have made mistakes with their managers. They sacked Jose Mourinho prematurely in 2007 before repeating the same mistake with Carlo Ancelotti in 2011.
Now they have Conte on board—a manager who is restoring their place in Europe—the Blues can't allow differences in the boardroom to dictate things on the pitch.
January has to be about showing their ambition to the manager.
4. Don't move for Ross Barkley
It was a deadline-day embarrassment for Chelsea when it emerged Ross Barkley had rejected a move to Stamford Bridge. The Everton midfielder decided to remain at Goodison Park to weigh up his options in January.
Since then, Chelsea have witnessed the benefits of their loan system, with Ruben Loftus-Cheek maturing rapidly at Crystal Palace.
Despite the Eagles struggling at the foot of the table, this season is proving to be a breakout year for the 21-year-old. He's playing regularly in his natural position and impacting matches, which hasn't gone unnoticed.
In November, he scored his first goal for Palace and was called up to the England squad to face Germany and Brazil at Wembley Stadium. On his international debut against the world champions, he was named man of the match.
His performance that night spoke of a player who is finally believing in his own ability; a player who is growing away from the pressures of west London.
If Chelsea sign Barkley in January, it doesn't say much for their faith in Loftus-Cheek to become a regular at Stamford Bridge. Rather than looking at the talent they have, Chelsea will be neglecting it for those who have gained experience elsewhere.
For all his talents, Barkley is yet to convince he can produce at the highest level—he comes with an element of risk. Loftus-Cheek is in the same situation, but surely the time has come for the Blues to let their own youngsters prove they're capable before spending elsewhere.
Chelsea have let too much young talent move on prematurely. It's time they bucked that trend.
Worst Moves
1. Extending Thibaut Courtois' contract
He's a fine goalkeeper, but Chelsea need something more than what Thibaut Courtois is offering them. The way Conte is attempting to play football, with a fluid movement from back to front, the Belgium international simply isn't suited to it.
We see it often. As Chelsea attempt to play out from the back, they are hindered by Courtois' lack of ability in possession. He is one-dimensional and teams press them high, encouraging the Blues to concede possession in their own half when the ball is eventually hoofed hopefully up the field.
That brings on pressure—the like of which the best teams capitalise. Manchester City did it at Stamford Bridge when they claimed a 1-0 victory on September 30, and Liverpool repeated it at Anfield in Saturday's 1-1 draw.
The notion of a sweeper 'keeper is no longer a hipster trend. For teams with the ambition of Conte's Chelsea, it's become a reality and the Blues need to address the issue.
Giving Courtois a new deal now doesn't solve it, although according to Matt Law of the Telegraph, that's what Chelsea are planning. The Belgian has his potential suitors and the Blues should make plans this January that impact their summer business.
Courtois' future is a big part of that.
2. Not signing another left wing-back
Chelsea strengthened their resources on the right side of defence last summer when they signed Davide Zappacosta to compete with Victor Moses at wing-back.
The early signs suggest the Italian will be more of a deputy than a regular starter, but his presence has already proved invaluable. Moses pulled up in October with a hamstring injury and since then Zappacosta has filled in on the right.
Without him around, it would have meant upsetting the back three by playing Cesar Azpilicueta in Moses' place. In the past, that has also damaged Chelsea's attacking threat.
Outside of the former Marseille man, the option last term was to use Pedro. As with Azpilicueta's inclusion on the right, Chelsea lost more than they gained with the Spaniard out of position.
Zappacosta has meant the balance has remained. And that's essential for this Chelsea side that is more about the collective unit functioning than it is individuals.
Zappacosta has been half the solution. On the opposite flank, Chelsea have a big problem in that Marcos Alonso is the only recognised left wing-back at the club. For the same reasons we described with the strikers—Champions League and Premier League fixture congestion—reinforcements are needed for the second part of the campaign.
It's unrealistic to expect Alonso to play the entire season without suspensions, injuries and fatigue playing a part. The reality right now is that he will have to if something isn't done about it.
Signing a player to compete with him is essential. Not doing so has the potential to damage Chelsea's campaign beyond repair.
3. Turning their back on the loan system
Every year we hear the criticism of how Chelsea have manipulated the loan system to develop players either for the first team or as collateral in the transfer market.
While many will frown, the Blues can't allow the naysayers to bring about a change of policy, especially now that technical director Michael Emenalo has left the club.
It was Emenalo who introduced the policy at Stamford Bridge that now sees well over 30 young players go out on temporary deals every season. That will raise revenue in loan fees and maintain the transfer value of players should Chelsea wish to cash in.
This January should be no different, with the likes of Jake Clarke-Salter and others on the fringes of the first team and looking for game time and experience.
Emenalo is now at AS Monaco, recently joining the Ligue 1 champions with a view to making a similar impact on the club's academy. That shouldn't mean Chelsea lose their direction.
In January 2014, Kevin De Bruyne was sold for £17 million on the back of the reputation he had carved out while on loan. Patrick Bamford was sold last January for a £10 million profit after never appearing for the senior team.
The list is endless, with the money raised being invested back in the first team to good effect.
The money from De Bruyne's sale, for instance, helped sign Cesc Fabregas six months later as Chelsea built a side that ran away with the title. Last summer's sale of Nathan Ake to Bournemouth for £20 million saw Antonio Rudiger brought in at Stamford Bridge.
It's a hard-nosed business approach that works well for Chelsea, and it has to be business as usual when January comes around.
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