What Will the Dallas Cowboys Look Like in 3 Years?
Despite the team's 5-4 start to the 2017 season, the Dallas Cowboys have positioned themselves well for not only the present but also for the future. While this season hasn't been nearly as exciting or successful as last year was, the Cowboys are trying to build a team that can be a perennial powerhouse.
For the most part, the Cowboys are a young team with a lot of their youth in the most important positions. But which players will be around in three years? Who will be hitting their peak during the 2020 season? Will Dallas be a Super Bowl contender by then or just another solid team in the NFC?
With seven games left to go in the regular season, it's time to look forward and predict where the Cowboys could be three years from now.
Dak Prescott
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In the year 2020, Dak Prescott will be 27 and just starting to enter the peak of his NFL career. While Prescott is a dual-threat quarterback, he is as capable of winning from the pocket as any other quarterback in the NFL. His size and athleticism allow him to make plays in the run game, but he's far more of a pocket passer than he is a runner.
The hope is that, in a few years, Prescott's accuracy and anticipation will only improve. And while he's been incredibly accurate and poised in his first two years in the NFL, he should only grow with more experience. No matter what the rest of the roster looks like in three years' time, Prescott is going to allow this team to stay competitive.
However, the degree to which he develops over the next few seasons will likely determine how competitive the Cowboys are. Dallas will do everything in its power to help Prescott succeed, but as long as he keeps playing on this level, the team will have one of the best quarterback situations in the league.
It's also worth mentioning that the Cowboys are developing backup quarterback Cooper Rush behind Prescott in case something catastrophic were to happen to their starter. Rush probably won't develop into an NFL starter, but it's nice to see the team have a young quarterback in their stable. It seems like Dallas is determined not to have poor quarterback play from a backup again.
Ezekiel Elliott
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Ezekiel Elliott's future in 2020 may be the hardest to predict of anyone on the team. Heading into the 2020 season, Elliott will have turned 25 and theoretically should be in the prime of his career. With Prescott hopefully growing as a passer and as the Cowboys continue to build on their offensive line, Elliott should be set up well in three seasons.
However, there are a few reasons to believe Elliott won't be as big of a factor in 2020 as he has been over the past two seasons. The first being the obvious: legal issues. Whether the suspension was justified or not, the fact is Elliott has already been suspended once by the league for six games. According to the original suspension handed down by the NFL, "another violation" could lead to a banishment.
While it's not fair to assume Elliott will get himself into trouble over the next few years, he has a target on his back. One misstep of any fashion could mean his time in Dallas quickly comes to an end. But as he matures, one would assume the likelihood of any other sort of misconduct would decrease.
Another possible concern with Elliott is his workload. When he is on the field, the Cowboys aren't afraid to use him. In the 22 career games he has played in the NFL, Elliott has averaged over 24 touches per game. If he continues to get that big of a workload over the next few seasons, he might be worn down by the 2020 season. That could lead to Dallas declining to sign him to a long-term contract given the amount of "miles" on his body.
Elliott's future with the Cowboys in the 2020 season and beyond is murkier than some of the others on this list, but you can bet he's still a big part of the team's future plans. But how long he lasts in Dallas is anyone's guess.
Wide Receivers
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Of all the positional groups, the wide receiver unit might be the one with the most uncertainty heading into the future. For the most part, it's a veteran group in which the team's top four receivers are on their second contracts, and it is one of the more expensive wide receiver units in the NFL.
Let's start with Dez Bryant. Bryant turned 29 on Nov. 4, and it's becoming quite clear that injuries are beginning to catch up with him. His contract runs out at the end of the 2019 season, per Spotrac, but it's likely that the team will extend him for a few years to lower his cap number.
In the second half of Bryant's career, the Cowboys could opt to use him more in the slot as his athleticism diminishes. Bryant's body control and route running are still strengths of his game and should continue to allow him to win as he enters the twilight of his career. He could make the transition to the slot in a similar way to Larry Fitzgerald of the Arizona Cardinals. Of all the receivers on the roster, he's the most likely to be around in three years.
Terrance Williams is signed through the 2020 season, but he will be 32 by the start of that season. With his limited skill set and somewhat high cap number (he's due $5.25 million in 2020, per Spotrac), it's doubtful Dallas hold on to Williams for that long.
Cole Beasley's contract is up after the 2018 season, and it's hard to imagine the Cowboys paying significant money to him with Ryan Switzer on the roster. Switzer and Noah Brown could still be around by 2020, but Dallas will need to infuse young talent into this positional group in the next few seasons. This unit will likely feature a lot of new faces by the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
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Jason Witten
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While Jason Witten is signed through the 2021 season, it's hard to envision he will be around until then. Witten has been a staple of the Dallas offense for years, but during the 2020 season, Witten will be 38. At that stage of his career, there is just no way the team can rely on him to be their No. 1 tight end game in and game out.
If Witten does stick around, the Cowboys could limit his snaps and just use him on high-leverage plays, similar to what the Los Angeles Chargers have done with Antonio Gates. He could still be an asset in the red zone and on third downs, but his days of playing every offensive snap are quickly fading.
And when Witten decides to hang his cleats up and retire, he will be a surefire Hall of Famer once he's eligible. However, that would create a significant hole in the Cowboys offense if he were to leave anytime soon. Ideally, Rico Gathers would be the team's starter at tight end as he has the highest ceiling of anyone on the roster. But the safest bet would be that Dallas drafts a player high in the next few years whom they can groom to take over the spot of the every-down tight end.
Witten has been one of the greatest Cowboys of all time and will be sorely missed when he retires. Don't be surprised if he is still converting pivotal third downs three years from now. At this point in his career, it's best to stop doubting him.
Offensive Line
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Outside of Prescott and Elliott, one of the biggest reasons for optimism for the Cowboys in the future is the play of their offensive line. When healthy, Dallas has one of the most dominant offensive lines in the NFL. But as you saw on Sunday, health will determine the Cowboys' success over the next several seasons. Without Tyron Smith, the team's ceiling is drastically reduced.
But what makes this unit special is it is young and that its components will all be sticking around in Dallas for the foreseeable future. All-Pros Smith and Travis Frederick are both signed through the 2023 season, and right tackle La'el Collins recently signed an extension that will keep him with the team at least through the 2019 season, per Spotrac. Guard Zack Martin is the only one who needs a contract extension, but he is signed through 2018 and has told the media wants to remain in Dallas. The parties will likely get a deal done sooner rather than later.
By 2020, all of their offensive linemen (except for whomever they decide to play at left guard) will be under the age of 30 when they start the season. Smith, Frederick, Martin and Collins should all still be at the respective peaks of their careers as offensive linemen and could all play at a high level well into their 30s.
There is a small chance Dallas will decide to move on from one of the four stars before that season, but the team knows its offensive line is what sets it apart from the rest of the NFL. Assuming no major injuries happen in the next few years, this should continue to be one of the league's most dominant positional groups.
Defense
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In one offseason, the Cowboys managed to rebuild their defense. In 2016, Dallas had one of the better defenses in the NFL, but the team employed a lot of older players, especially in the secondary. But in 2017, the Cowboys are featuring a defensive backfield with three rookies and one second-year player playing predominant roles. Even starter Byron Jones is just 25.
Because of the youth on the defensive line (DeMarcus Lawrence, David Irving, and Maliek Collins are all 25 or younger) and the depth in the secondary, Dallas' defense should only improve in the coming years. The only notable player on defense who might not stick around for rebuild is Sean Lee, who turned 31 in July. It's just hard to imagine he's still going to be a big part of the defense in his mid-30s.
Most of the Cowboys' key defenders are young, and there are a handful of guys who are buried on the depth chart (Taco Charlton, Jaylon Smith and potentially Randy Gregory) who will figure into the team's future plans as well. As long as Dallas can continue to stick with continuity with its coaching staff and scheme, the team should be able to continue the rebuild of the defense.
Dallas has a young defense that is taking its lumps this season, but in the next few seasons, that could change. While the week-to-week results don't always look special, this unit should be significantly better in a few years. Don't give up on them just yet.
Jason Garrett
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Whether Jason Garrett remains Dallas' head coach will likely depend on how the team finishes the 2017 season. In his eight years in charge, Garrett has a record of 63-50. While on the surface, that looks good, one of the problems he has is his teams seesaw too often.
In 2014, the Cowboys went 12-4 and then went on to finish 4-12 the following season. In 2016, they had just three losses, but they have already eclipsed that total in 2017.
If Dallas fails to make the playoffs this season or if the team doesn't have any playoff success in the next few years, it's not hard to envision a scenario in which owner Jerry Jones would be willing to make a change if the right coach were available.
However, the safest bet is Garrett will still be the team's head coach in 2020, as the Cowboys want to establish continuity within their organization. Dallas will go as far as Garrett takes them. But unfortunately for Cowboys fans, that likely means there will be a lot of variance from year to year in terms of the team's record.
Garrett isn't the best coach in the world, but he isn't the worst, either. He's just stuck in the middle.
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