NFL Predictions Week 10: Upset Picks and Projections

NFL bettors are well-versed in the ways of the upset this year. 

After all, this is a 2017 campaign that started with the New England Patriots going down hard in Foxborough in the league's kickoff game. 

Since, the upsets haven't stopped. The Washington Redskins going to Seattle and taking down the Seahawks in Week 9 says it all. 

And when there haven't been upsets outright, odd finishes like an eye-popping game where the Philadelphia Eagles smacked around the Denver Broncos in 51-23 fashion highlight the slate. 

Week 10 shouldn't be any different in this regard, which is good news for would-be bettors who enjoy the risk of an underdog. After a look at the full schedule, let's identify some of the top options.  

NFL Week 10 Schedule, Odds

Seattle (-6) at Arizona | O/U 41.5

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-5) | O/U 40.5

Cleveland at Detroit (-9.5) | O/U

Green Bay at Chicago (-3) | O/U

L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville (-4) | O/U 41

Minnesota (-1.5) at Washington | O/U 42.5

New Orleans (-2.5) at Buffalo | O/U 46

N.Y. Jets (-2.5) at Tampa Bay | O/U

Pittsburgh (-10) at Indianapolis | O/U 44.5

Houston at L.A. Rams (-11.5) | O/U 46.5

Dallas at Atlanta (-3) | O/U 50.5

N.Y. Giants (-1) at San Francisco | O/U 41.5

New England (-7.5) at Denver | O/U 46.5

Miami at Carolina (-9) | O/U 39.5

Dallas at Atlanta (-3)

It's weird to see the Atlanta Falcons favored at all right now. 

Bettors might want to take advantage of such a development outright as soon as possible on the chance the line moves. Even if it does, Matt Ryan and his side haven't exactly impressed as of late, losing four out of their last five—the exception a five-point win in sloppy conditions against the New York Jets. 

The Cowboys haven't had any such problems, rattling off three consecutive wins to right the ship. Not only have the wins come via 40-10, 33-19 and 28-17 outcomes, the last one came against the Chiefs. 

This isn't to say recent records decide everything in the NFL. But Ryan hasn't looked right while trying to shoulder the weight of the team as usual, throwing only 11 touchdowns against seven interceptions, with only one of those scores going to Julio Jones. 

In fact, an assistant coach who faced Ryan told ESPN.com's Vaughn McClure that Ryan hasn't looked right. 

"You can tell he's just a little off on his throws," the coach said. "I saw the same thing on film when I studied the tape—just a little off."

Those Cowboys certainly look right after a slow start. Ezekiel Elliott has 783 yards and seven touchdowns on a 4.1 per-carry average. Dak Prescott is once again taking great care of the football, having thrown 16 touchdowns against four interceptions. 

Funnily enough, the Cowboys have won three of their four road games so far this year. Heck, two of their losses outright have come via five-point margins or less. This feels like a game they grind out via a strong running game while Ryan once again struggles to rediscover his elite form. 

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Falcons 20

New England (-7.5) at Denver 

Those Patriots mentioned in the intro haven't exactly been reliable for bettors this year. 

Not only did Bill Belichick's team have the dud to start the season, they've randomly struggled against teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Chargers, not to mention lost outright against the Carolina Panthers. To make things even more strange, the team's only two losses have come at home. 

Which isn't meant to suggest the Broncos have looked good. They've lost four in a row, including the blowout mentioned in the intro. Said blowout featured Brock Osweiler starting under center and completing only half of his 38 attempts with one touchdown and two interceptions. 

Still, it's hard to get behind the idea this one is as easy as the line makes it seem. The Patriots aren't taking the Broncos lightly, either, as noted by Nora Princiotti of the Boston Globe: 

For all their faults, Denver ranks fourth against the pass (192.4 yards allowed per game), fifth against the rush (88.4) and 25th in terms of points allowed per game (24.8). 

That last number, of course, sticks out. But a defense constantly on the field because the offense can't uphold its end of the bargain is bound to give up some big plays. This game, though, feels like one where things could even out offensively for the Broncos, with C.J. Anderson on the ground against a Patriots defense ranked 25th against the rush and dead last against the pass. 

Osweiler isn't going to beat the Patriots with his arm, but a strong running game will produce enough holes for the Broncos to stay on the field at home and squeak past for the upset of the week. 

Prediction: Broncos 23, Patriots 20 

Miami at Carolina (-9)

It sounds odd to say for a 6-3 team, but the Panthers haven't been particularly trustworthy, either. 

Sure, Cam Newton and crew beat the Patriots on the road, but they also got blown away by New Orleans in 34-13 fashion and lost to Chicago. 

Newton has been all over the place in the process after coming back from surgery, throwing 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while just watching his team trade away top target Kelvin Benjamin. 

As such, it seems odd to see the line flirt with double digits here, as Newton's up-and-down attack encounters a top-10 run defense. These Miami Dolphins are only 4-4, but an odd season that started with a bye thanks to inclement weather has seen the team have problems with quarterbacks staying healthy. 

Jay Cutler was back under center in Week 9 and tossed three touchdowns, which is a big mark for him, as ESPN Stats & Info noted: 

Oddly enough, the Dolphins still lost to an Oakland Raiders team with its back against the wall. 

But that's not the Panthers, one of the league's more inconsistent teams with a front office apparently comfortable with trading away key pieces surrounding Newton after struggling for years to get the right supporting cast around him. 

These Dolphins have a deep running game even after the Jay Ajayi trade and a quarterback slinging it well right now. Sprinkle in a lack of weapons for the Panthers and this seems like one of those ugly games bettors can capitalize on to end the week. 

Prediction: Dolphins 20, Panthers 17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.