Ranking the 2017 MLB Free-Agent Class by Position
The 2017-18 MLB free-agent class is one of the weaker groups in recent years, but we'll still see plenty of impact talent on the move this offseason.
As always, some positions are stronger than others.
It's a good year to be in the market for corner infield help, but if you're looking for a middle infielder it's slim pickings.
Keeping with that theme, what follows is a position-by-position breakdown of the upcoming free-agent class with each position ranked from thinnest to deepest.
Players were broken into four tiers to better illustrate the overall talent level at each position:
- Tier 1: All-Star-caliber players. The cream of the crop, only 12 players received a Tier 1 grade.
- Tier 2: Above-average players. These guys are solid bets to land a multiyear deal and a starting job.
- Tier 3: Replacement-level players. Safe bets to receive guaranteed MLB money, but they will likely have to settle for one-year deals.
- Tier 4: Organizational depth. Players who will likely have to settle for a minor league deal and a spring training invite to try to play their way onto a roster.
Demand also played a part in the rankings. In other words, there are more viable starting pitching options available than potential everyday catchers, but there's also a far greater demand for rotation arms that likely won't be filled.
At any rate, this was simply meant to be a different way to look at this year's free-agent crop.
9. Second Basemen
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Top Second Basemen
| Neil Walker | 1.5 | 2 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.9 | 3 |
| Chase Utley | 1.0 | 3 |
Tier 4: Dustin Ackley, Darwin Barney, Stephen Drew, Danny Espinosa, Johnny Giavotella, Phil Gosselin
Position Overview
With Brandon Phillips (36) and Chase Utley (38) both coming down the homestretch of their respective careers, there's only one everyday second base option on this year's free-agent market in Neil Walker.
Since becoming a starter in 2010, Walker has a 114 OPS+ and he's checked in as an above-average offensive player in each of those eight seasons.
The 32-year-old finished the 2017 season strong, posting an .843 OPS with 12 extra-base hits and 13 RBI in 38 games after being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers.
He won't match the $17.2 million annual salary that came with accepting a qualifying offer last winter, but a multiyear deal seems like a safe bet and a reunion with the Brewers might be the best fit.
8. Shortstops
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Top Shortstops
| Zack Cozart | 4.9 | 1 |
| Alcides Escobar | 0.0 | 3 |
| J.J. Hardy | -0.5 | 3 |
Tier 4: Erick Aybar, Andres Blanco, Paul Janish, Cliff Pennington, Adam Rosales, Josh Rutledge, Ruben Tejada
Position Overview
It's a good thing the list of teams looking for a starting shortstop is relatively short.
Zack Cozart has always been a standout defender and he's coming off a career year offensively in which he hit .297/.385/.548 with 24 doubles, 24 home runs and 63 RBI.
The Reds are "leaning against" extending him a $17.4 million qualifying offer, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, and that would obviously help his case on the open market.
He's really the only viable starting option at the position.
Alcides Escobar and J.J. Hardy were both everyday players at the start of the 2017 season and have been for the past several seasons, but they were black holes offensively.
Among the 318 players with at least 250 plate appearances, Escobar (65 OPS+, 301st) and Hardy (55 OPS+, 313th) were two of the least productive and their glove work no longer justifies an everyday gig.
7. Starting Pitchers
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Top Starting Pitchers
| Jake Arrieta | 1.9 | 1 |
| Yu Darvish | 4.0 | 1 |
| Alex Cobb | 2.4 | 2 |
| Lance Lynn | 3.1 | 2 |
| Tyler Chatwood | 2.2 | 2 |
| CC Sabathia | 2.8 | 2 |
| Andrew Cashner | 4.6 | 2 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 2.4 | 2 |
| Jaime Garcia | 1.4 | 2 |
Tier 3: Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Scott Feldman, Doug Fister, Miguel Gonzalez, Jeremy Hellickson, Hisashi Iwakuma, John Lackey, Wade Miley, Miles Mikolas, Chris Tillman, Jason Vargas
Tier 4: Henderson Alvarez, Brett Anderson, Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Jesse Chavez, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, Dillon Gee, Derek Holland, Edwin Jackson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kyle Kendrick, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco, Wily Peralta, Michael Pineda, Tyson Ross, Anibal Sanchez, Hector Santiago
Position Overview
This year's starting pitching market is as thin as any in recent memory.
Jake Arrieta gets the nod over Yu Darvish for the top spot thanks in large part to his comparatively fresh arm.
Both pitchers are 31 years old, yet Darvish (2,127.2 IP) has over 450 more professional innings on his arm than Arrieta (1,669.0 IP) dating back to his time in Japan. So while Darvish might be the better pitcher right now, Arrieta looks like a safer bet to perform at a high level over the life of what is likely to be a five-year deal.
After those two, the drop-off is steep.
Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are both capable of being strong No. 3 starters on a contending team, while 37-year-old CC Sabathia proved he still has something left to offer with a terrific regular season that was followed by a strong postseason.
Tyler Chatwood and Andrew Cashner are wild cards with some upside, Jaime Garcia is the best bet to get a multiyear deal among left-handers and Jhoulys Chacin (180.1 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.26 FIP) was quietly effective on a one-year, $1.75 million deal with the San Diego Padres.
Beyond those nine guys, it's a crapshoot of underperforming veterans, players returning from injury and organizational depth.
Keep an eye on Miles Mikolas. He went 31-13 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 62 starts over the past three seasons pitching for the Yomiuri Giants in the Japanese League. After a forgettable first go-around in MLB with the Padres and Rangers, he's ready to make his way back stateside.
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6. Catchers
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Top Catchers
| Jonathan Lucroy | 0.6 | 2 |
| Alex Avila | 2.7 | 2 |
| Chris Iannetta | 1.8 | 2 |
| Nick Hundley | 0.5 | 3 |
| Rene Rivera | 0.1 | 3 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 0.5 | 3 |
| A.J. Ellis | 0.4 | 3 |
| Miguel Montero | -0.6 | 3 |
| Jose Lobaton | -1.0 | 3 |
Tier 4: Hank Conger, Ryan Hanigan, Erik Kratz, Francisco Pena, Anthony Recker, Geovany Soto, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Josh Thole, Bobby Wilson
Position Overview
Thanks to his strong receiving skills and impressive overall track record, Jonathan Lucroy still looks like the best catcher on the market and a good bet for a multiyear deal even after a disappointing offensive season.
A strong finish following his trade to the Colorado Rockies should help, as he hit .310/.429/.437 with 11 extra-base hits and a 115 OPS+ in 46 games.
Meanwhile, Alex Avila (119 OPS+, 14 HR) and Chris Iannetta (114 OPS+, 17 HR) both enjoyed terrific offensive seasons and played a key role on postseason teams. They know how to handle a staff and are worthy of at least a part-time role.
Rene Rivera (92 OPS+, 10 HR) leads a long list of veteran backup options that also includes former All-Stars Carlos Ruiz and Miguel Montero.
Welington Castillo (115 OPS+, 20 HR, 49% CS) could join this group as well if he decides to decline a $7 million player option. He would slot right behind Lucroy in the positional rankings.
5. Corner Outfielders
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Top Corner Outfielders
| J.D. Martinez | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jay Bruce | 2.9 | 2 |
| Howie Kendrick | 1.4 | 2 |
| Curtis Granderson | 1.5 | 2 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | -0.2 | 3 |
| Nori Aoki | 0.7 | 3 |
| Melky Cabrera | -0.1 | 3 |
| Seth Smith | 0.3 | 3 |
| Jose Bautista | -1.7 | 3 |
Tier 4: Gregor Blanco, Alejandro De Aza, Andre Ethier, Craig Gentry, Chris Heisey, Hyun Soo Kim, Mike Morse, Daniel Nava, Ryan Raburn, Colby Rasmus, Ben Revere, Travis Snider, Melvin Upton Jr., Jayson Werth, Chris Young
Position Overview
J.D. Martinez is the best bat on this year's free-agent market after a monster 2017 season.
The 30-year-old had a 1.107 OPS with 29 home runs and 65 RBI in 62 games with the Diamondbacks, and all told, he finished with a 1.066 OPS and a career-high 45 long balls.
He's dealt with some injuries in his career, but a $100 million-plus deal should be forthcoming.
While Jay Bruce is more of a one-dimensional power threat, he's a strong candidate for a three-year deal after slugging 36 homers with 101 RBI and a 115 OPS+.
Curtis Granderson has a 113 OPS+ and 102 home runs over the past four seasons and he's still capable of playing center field, which adds to his value. The 36-year-old might need to take a pay cut after landing a four-year, $60 million deal last time he reached free agency.
Howie Kendrick was a second baseman for most of his career, but he's moved into more of a utility role. He hit .315/.368/.475 over 334 plate appearances with the Phillies and Nationals while seeing the bulk of his action in left field, and his versatility should make him a hot commodity.
Sluggers Carlos Gonzalez (87 OPS+, .262 BA, 14 HR) and Jose Bautista (76 OPS+, .203 BA, 23 HR) might have to settle for incentive-laden one-year deals as they look to bounce back from poor seasons, while Nori Aoki, Seth Smith and Melky Cabrera should at least be able to catch on as fourth outfielders.
The rest of the outfield market is likely looking at minor league pacts.
4. Center Fielders
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Top Center Fielders
| Lorenzo Cain | 5.3 | 1 |
| Carlos Gomez | 1.8 | 2 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 2.6 | 2 |
| Jon Jay | 1.1 | 2 |
| Austin Jackson | 1.9 | 2 |
| Cameron Maybin | 1.7 | 3 |
| Rajai Davis | 0.3 | 3 |
Tier 4: Emilio Bonifacio, Peter Bourjos, Franklin Gutierrez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Shane Robinson, Drew Stubbs, Eric Young Jr.
Position Overview
As a 31-year-old who relies on speed and center field defense as the driving force behind his overall value, signing Lorenzo Cain to a long-term deal comes with some clear risk.
However, for a contender in need of an upgrade at the position, he could be the missing piece.
After a disappointing 2016 season, Cain rebounded to hit .300/.363/.440 with 15 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 28 attempts for the third 5-WAR season of his career.
Teams that miss out on signing him will have a handful of fallback options to choose from.
Carlos Gomez was limited to 105 games, but he proved his offensive resurgence was for real by posting an .802 OPS with 23 doubles and 17 home runs in 426 plate appearances.
And it was more of the same from Jarrod Dyson who topped 25 stolen bases for the sixth straight season while again playing terrific defense (15 DRS, 11.0 UZR/150).
Jon Jay provided a strong batting average (.296) and on-base percentage (.374) as a platoon player with the Cubs, and Austin Jackson (318 PA, 126 OPS+) turned a minor league deal into a semi-regular role with the Indians.
Speedsters Cameron Maybin (33 SB) and Rajai Davis (29 SB) should be able to find jobs as stolen bases grow increasingly harder to find.
3. Third Basemen
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Top Third Basemen
| Mike Moustakas | 1.8 | 1 |
| Todd Frazier | 3.4 | 2 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 1.3 | 2 |
| Yunel Escobar | 0.4 | 3 |
Tier 4: Mike Aviles, Ryan Flaherty, Ty Kelly, Will Middlebrooks, Jhonny Peralta, Trevor Plouffe, Jose Reyes, Pablo Sandoval
Position Overview
Mike Moustakas picked the perfect time for the best offensive season of his career as he set a Kansas City Royals franchise record with 38 home runs.
The 29-year-old has his shortcomings with a relatively low walk rate (5.7 percent) and on-base percentage (.314) and below-average defensive metrics (minus-8 DRS, minus-3.6 UZR/150), but his age and power make him a top-tier option.
While Todd Frazier has seen his batting average plummet to .220 over the past two seasons, he still has a 106 OPS+ during that span. He's a standout defender with 30-homer power and looks like one of the best buy-low candidates on this year's market.
The versatile Eduardo Nunez proved his 2016 breakout was the real deal, hitting .313/.341/.460 with 33 doubles, 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases while playing all over the diamond. A super utility role might suit him best, but he's seen the most action at the hot corner the past two seasons so he's included here.
Yunel Escobar is a .300 hitter over the past three seasons, and guys like Trevor Plouffe, Ryan Flaherty, Jhonny Peralta and Jose Reyes could all turn minor league contracts into bench roles.
2. Relief Pitchers
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Top Relief Pitchers
| Wade Davis | 1.9 | 1 |
| Addison Reed | 2.4 | 1 |
| Greg Holland | 1.4 | 1 |
| Mike Minor | 2.8 | 2 |
| Brandon Morrow | 1.1 | 2 |
| Bryan Shaw | 0.6 | 2 |
| Juan Nicasio | 2.0 | 2 |
| Brandon Kintzler | 1.7 | 2 |
| Pat Neshek | 2.8 | 2 |
| Anthony Swarzak | 2.7 | 2 |
| Jake McGee | 1.4 | 2 |
| Steve Cishek | 1.5 | 2 |
| Tommy Hunter | 1.2 | 2 |
| Tony Watson | 1.0 | 2 |
| Joe Smith | 1.2 | 2 |
Tier 3: Fernando Abad, Matt Albers, Matt Belisle, Joaquin Benoit, Tyler Clippard, Brian Duensing, Luke Gregerson, David Hernandez, Seung Hwan Oh, Oliver Perez, Yusmeiro Petit, Fernando Rodney, Sergio Romo, Craig Stammen
Tier 4: John Axford, Andrew Bailey, Craig Breslow, Jorge De La Rosa, Neftali Feliz, Jeanmar Gomez, Jason Grilli, Wade LeBlanc, Mark Lowe, Jordan Lyles, Dustin McGowan, Jason Motte, Bud Norris, Eric O'Flaherty, Logan Ondrusek, Glen Perkins, Chad Qualls, Francisco Rodriguez, Fernando Salas, Drew Storen, Koji Uehara, Tom Wilhelmsen
Position Overview
Wade Davis is the only lockdown closer option on this year's free-agent market, but it's a deep overall crop of bullpen arms.
Greg Holland ran out of gas down the stretch with a 7.58 ERA over the final two months, but he still saved 41 games in 45 chances with a 3.61 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 in his return from Tommy John surgery.
Standout setup man Addison Reed could also get a chance to close again, and a lucrative four-year deal likely awaits him this winter even if he continues pitching in the eighth inning.
Former starters Mike Minor (65 G, 2.55 ERA, 10.2 K/9), Brandon Morrow (45 G, 2.06 ERA, 10.3 K/9) and Juan Nicasio (76 G, 2.61 ERA, 9.0 K/9) all thrived in their first full seasons pitching out of the bullpen, and they'll cash in as a result, while Anthony Swarzak (70 G, 2.33 ERA, 10.6 K/9) was among the biggest surprises of 2017.
All-Star Pat Neshek and workhorse Bryan Shaw could find three-year deals, while second-tier closer candidates Brandon Kintzler and Steve Cishek, lefties Jake McGee and Tony Watson and steady middle relievers Tommy Hunter and Joe Smith should all get at least two years.
There are plenty of guys in the Tier 3 group that could also wind up signing multiyear deals, including Tyler Clippard, Matt Albers and Brian Duensing.
1. First Basemen
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Top First Basemen
| Eric Hosmer | 4.0 | 1 |
| Carlos Santana | 3.4 | 1 |
| Logan Morrison | 3.6 | 1 |
| Yonder Alonso | 2.0 | 2 |
| Mitch Moreland | 2.0 | 2 |
| Lucas Duda | 1.1 | 2 |
| Mark Reynolds | 0.9 | 2 |
| Adam Lind | 0.8 | 3 |
| Mike Napoli | -0.4 | 3 |
| Danny Valencia | 1.0 | 3 |
Tier 4: Pedro Alvarez, Chris Carter, Ji-Man Choi, Allen Craig, Ike Davis, Ryan Howard, John Jaso, James Loney, Tyler Moore
Position Overview
It already looked like a strong market for first basemen heading into the season with Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana both set to reach free agency for the first time.
Those two remain the elite options at the position, but a handful of breakout seasons have made first base the deepest position in the 2017-18 class.
Logan Morrison (135 OPS+, 38 HR) headlines that group and he'll soar past the one-year, $2.5 million deal he signed to rejoin the Tampa Bay Rays last offseason. MLBTradeRumors predicted a three-year, $36 million contract and noted that a four-year deal is not out of the question.
An even more surprising offensive breakout came from Yonder Alonso (133 OPS+, 28 HR) who looked like a legitimate non-tender candidate at this time a year ago. A second-half swoon could limit his market to two-year deals, but he's still a viable everyday option.
Mitch Moreland (99 OPS+, 22 HR, 10 DRS) more than earned his one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Red Sox, and the same goes for Mark Reynolds (105 OPS+, 30 HR) and his one-year, $1.5 million pact with the Rockies.
Adam Lind and Mike Napoli are limited to being power bats off the bench at this point in their respective careers, while Danny Valencia crushes left-handed pitching (.804 OPS, 12 XBH) and brings some defensive versatility with the ability to play third base and corner outfield.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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