Lakers-Celtics: NBA Finals Preview

After a couple of seasons of upstart finalists (Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers), 2008 provides a championship matchup synonymous with basketball itself, in the Boston Celtics versus the Los Angeles Lakers.

Names like O’Neal, Bird, McHale, Johnson, Abdul-Jabbar, Havlicek, West, and Russell reverberate throughout the series, with names like Bryant, Pierce, and Garnett looking to etch their legacy in the annals of history.

When analyzing a series of this magnitude, it’s sapient to start with the series’ best player, in this case, unequivocally, Kobe Bryant.

So far, the only players to affect Kobe’s play in the postseason even marginally have been Utah’s Andrei Kirilenko and San Antonio’s Bruce Bowen. Kobe still excelled against Utah and San Antonio.

Since Boston doesn’t have a defender with Bowen’s skill, or Kirilenko’s length, Kobe should taste even more success in the Finals. Boston’s saving grace is its ability to rotate judiciously, particularly Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett. Still, Kobe was too talented for Ray Allen to contain, no matter how much help defense is presented.

Paul Pierce presents much more of a roadblock. His quick feet and strong torso make him much better suited to defending Kobe, but Pierce would probably be suckered into foul trouble, and definitely would be forced to expend a great deal of energy on the defensive end.

Also, Pierce’s presence on Kobe means Vladimir Radmanovic will be free to shoot over Ray Allen whenever V-Rad has sufficient space.

James Posey’s aggressive defense may be the best weapon in Boston’s Kobe defense. Quick and strong, Posey’s expected foul trouble would be mitigated by his lesser role coming off the bench, and by his tertiary status in Boston’s offensive game plan.

Since Kobe likes to feel his way through a game before taking his most powerful punches, expect a combination of Allen early, Posey in the middle, and Pierce late to defend Kobe.

On defense, Kobe will easily handle Pierce’s post-up game, and will relish the opportunity to defend Pierce one-on-one late in close games. However, Kobe’s propensity to gamble early in games can no doubt be exploited by Pierce’s adept multi-dimensional game. Also, if Allen is shooting well, he’d be a nuisance for Bryant to chase through screens. Kobe shouldn’t have any problems staying close to James Posey.

Vladimir Radmanovic will shoot over Allen to his heart’s content, but should have trouble scoring in all other matchup scenarios. Luke Walton can punish Allen in the post, but Posey and Pierce would crowd and jam Walton into careless mistakes.

Sasha Vujacic may be too quick for Allen, and that speed and shooting can open any close-to-the-vest affair into a helter-skelter ball game.

When the Celtics have the ball, Pierce will light Walton and Radmanovic up for fireworks, while Posey will get his points off ball movement and scattering defenses.

If Allen is on his game, he’s too quick with the ball for Walton and Radmanovic, and he’s smart enough off the ball to lose Vujacic off screens. If Allen’s jumper is off, though, Vujacic and Bryant can defend Allen with ease.

At the point, Rajon Rondo too often is out-of-position on defense, and too often makes needlessly risky passes on offense. Plus his jumper is inconsistent, and he passes up too many open looks around the basket. Since Derek Fisher has long-armed helpers behind him, expect him to get in Rondo’s grill all series and force plenty of mistakes, sandwiched around the occasional Rondo spectacular pass or layup.

Sam Cassell has proven he’s washed up all postseason long, and Jordan Farmar’s speed and quickness should leave Cassell dizzy. Perhaps Eddie House will get a shot to run the offense, but Fisher’s tenacious pressure on ball carriers will blow the Celtics out of their offense in that situation. If House does run the point, it must be against LA’s backups.

In the frontcourt, each team presents interesting matchups depending on who guards whom. If it’s Odom matched up with Garnett, then Garnett’s superior length and quickness will swallow up Odom, while KG gets his points on his various jumpers and finesse fadeaways.

That leaves Pau Gasol with a huge advantage in quickness and length over Kendrick Perkins. If Perkins will be able to muscle Gasol on the boards and force a number of missed layups as well, Gasol will be able to face up-and shoot, face up-and go, or turn and shoot a sweeping hook with minimal defensive resistance.

If the matchups are reversed, Odom will be able to abuse Perkins off the dribble at will while outquicking him on the offensive glass. Perkins will counter by bullying Odom on Boston’s offensive glass for converted tip-ins. Gasol should be able to bother Garnett’s timid post-up game, but Garnett’s long arms and denial defense will leave Gasol useless in the low and high posts.

The Lakers bench as a unit is aggressive, yet cohesive, and can instill chaos to an opponent’s carefully laid plans. Boston’s bench is tough and workmanlike and fills many small niches. Whereas the Lakers bench can turn the tide of a game, Boston’s bench lacks the firepower to be a factor on its own.

The coaching matchup is a no-contest. Doc Rivers has done a terrific job of nurturing his young guys and keeping the Celtics committed to defense. Still, Phil Jackson may be the best coach in history, and no coach instills confidence in his players, or comes up with a game plan any better than coach Jackson.

Give the Lakers the edge in athleticism, coaching, bench play, and offensive firepower. Give Boston the edge in strength, rebounding, balance, and discipline.

Give the Celtics the edge in having better second and third options, but the Lakers gain the advantage with the main gun in the clutch.

Still, there are many advantages that won’t be determined until the games are played.

Which Garnett will show up? The one who attacks the paint aggressively, or the all-finesse, all-the-time jump shooter Garnett really is?

Which tandem will win the battle up front?

Which Ray Allen will show up?

Can the Celtics restore order when LA’s second unit is in the game?

Which unsung player will play the best, Vladimir Radmanovic or James Posey?

Will Rajon Rondo make more good decisions than bad ones?

Will Paul Pierce hold serve with Kobe Bryant, especially late in games?

None of these questions can be answered ahead of time, and hopefully for basketball fans sakes, they won’t be fully answered until the waning moments of Game Seven. As it is, enjoy this pinnacle of such a terrific basketball season. The best basketball has to offer is upon us!

Prediction: Lakers in Six