7 Keys to Victory in New England Patriots' Week 7 Matchup
A little over eight months ago, the New England Patriots completed the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. Not only did they erase a 28-3 deficit to come back and beat the Atlanta Falcons in overtime, they mounted the majority of the comeback in the fourth quarter.
The Falcons will have their chance for revenge on Sunday night, when they travel to Foxborough Massachusetts.
Of course, this game is a whole lot more than just a Super Bowl rematch; it's important for the playoff hopes of both teams. The Falcons are sitting at 3-2 and tied for second place in the NFC South. New England is clinging to a half-game lead in the AFC East.
Unfortunately, this isn't the greatest matchup for New England. The Falcons may have lost offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, but they still have offensive weapons such as Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Devonta Freeman. Inconsistent defense has been New England's biggest weakness in 2017.
So what do the Patriots need to do in order to secure a Week 7 win? Let's dig in.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
When: Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET
National TV: NBC
Commit to the Run
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The Patriots' two biggest issues this season have been pass defense and pass protection.
New England is ranked dead-last against the pass, allowing an average of 324.8 yards per game through the air. Tom Brady has been sacked 16 times already this season, more than he was sacked in 12 games in 2016.
New England can help itself on both fronts by committing to the run. If the Patriots can grind out the game and sustain drives, they will be able to give the defense rest while keeping Atlanta's offense off the field and potentially out of rhythm.
Committing to the run would also limit Brady's exposure to Atlanta's pass rush. An unbalanced offense this season has only exacerbated the pass-protection issues. The Patriots have run the ball 153 times and passed 233 times.
It's tempting to go pass-heavy with a quarterback such as Brady under center, but the Patriots have to stick with the run as much as possible.
Feature Dion Lewis on Offense
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Sticking with the run has been a struggle for the Patriots this season because the running game hasn't been as consistent as it was behind LeGarrette Blount last term.
As a team, the Patriots are only averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Lead back Mike Gillislee is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry.
This is why the Patriots should try featuring Dion Lewis on offense more. He leads the team with a 5.0 yards-per-carry average. He led the team with 11 carries against the New York Jets and turned that into 52 yards and a touchdown.
"I try to show everybody that I deserve it,” Lewis said of his opportunity, per Mike Reiss of ESPN.com. "You can't really go out there, get plays and not do anything with it. So whenever I get the opportunity, I'm definitely trying to prove myself."
Since Lewis has been the most productive runner so far this season, he should be a bigger part of the offensive game plan against Atlanta.
Don't Rely Too Heavily on Short Passing
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Lewis is also valuable as a pass-catcher, but the Patriots shouldn't rely too much on their short-passing game against the Falcons. This may seem counter-intuitive because—with weapons such as Lewis, James White and Danny Amendola—New England's offense is built on precision throws underneath.
The problem is that the Patriots want these short passes to turn into long gains via yardage after the catch. Against the Falcons, this could be wishful thinking. Atlanta has one of the fastest defenses in the entire league, if not the fastest.
Guys such as linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal are quick to close on receivers as soon as they make a catch. New England could have a tough time tacking up YAC on Sunday night.
This doesn't mean the Patriots should eschew the short-passing game entirely, of course. It just means they shouldn't count on it to consistently produce big games. They have downfield weapons such as Chris Hogan, Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots should utilize them to stretch the field.
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Play Man Defense
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The Patriots aren't ranked last in pass defense because of a lack of talent. They've struggled so mightily because of issues in communication. New England typically relies on a zone-coverage scheme that is far from simple.
With newcomer Stephon Gilmore manning one of the key corner spots, communication on the back end of the defense broke down early and often over the first month of the season.
In Week 5, though, the Patriots put more focus on man defense. They did the same in Week 6, though Gilmore missed that game with a concussion. While New England still gave up some gaudy passing yardage, big plays were fewer and the defense was better as a whole.
Over the past two weeks, New England has only allowed a total of just 33 points.
Against Atlanta's vaunted passing attack, the Patriots need to keep things simple and continue relying on man coverages. This will prevent New England's defensive backs from failing to properly pass off coverage in the zone and should help eliminate blown assignments.
Even if the Patriots are sound in zone coverage, they cannot afford to use it too often. Ryan and Co. have the talent to start picking apart zone defenses if given the same looks through four quarters.
Blitz Matt Ryan
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Matt Ryan is an elite NFL quarterback. He won MVP honors last season, and he has the talent and the vision to expose a pass defense like New England's. However, he has been uncharacteristically mistake-prone this season, and the Patriots can capitalize on that.
The 32-year-old has thrown six interceptions already this season after throwing only seven all last year. If the Patriots want to continue his interception run, they need to pressure him. New England cannot afford to let Ryan just sit in the pocket and survey the field, so again creating pressure has to be a goal.
Unfortunately, the pass rush hasn't been a team strength over the past couple seasons. The reason is that the Patriots don't have a premier edge-rusher on the roster. In New England's 4-3 base defense, pressure is supposed to come from the defensive end spot. However, ends Deatrich Wise and Trey Flowers have combined for just 6.5 sacks through six games.
This is why defensive coordinator Matt Patricia needs to bring blitzers from the linebacker group or the secondary. He utilized the blitz against the Jets in Week 6, and the Patriots produced a season-high four sacks. Three of those sacks were made by linebackers.
If the Patriots cannot figure out how to pressure Ryan, they're going to give him chances to create chunk plays and they can't possibly hope for him to make game-changing mistakes.
Shut Down the Run
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If the Patriots want to force Ryan into making mistakes, they need to have the Falcons leaning on the pass. This means shutting down the run.
If Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are allowed to run wild, Ryan isn't going to be as big a part of the game plan.
Atlanta made a mistake not running the ball enough against the Miami Dolphins last week. Despite averaging a solid 5.3 yards per rush, the Falcons only ran the ball 19 times. Ryan attempted 35 passes, threw one interception and was sacked twice.
Like most teams, the Falcons have been more geared toward the pass offensively this season. They've run 126 times and passed 170. The Patriots can make Atlanta even more one-dimensional on Sunday by locking down the run early and often.
This will be easier said than done, of course, as New England is ranked just 20th in run defense (115.8 yards per game allowed).
Don't Let Atlanta Get Confidence Early
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The Falcons will be looking for revenge on the Patriots—not only because of the results of Super Bowl LI but because of the lingering talk of Atlanta's meltdown.
"You looked at social media and you saw all that 28-3, you were like, 'Dang, man,'" Vic Beasley said, per Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. "You're like, 'Shoot; we almost had it.' But, hey, what can you do about it now? The Patriots did it. A couple of weeks after the game, 28-3, I saw it a lot. They were making memes of all kind of stuff."
Changing the narrative with a victory over the Patriots in prime time has to be a goal for the Falcons. One thing New England cannot do is allow Atlanta to get confidence early.
Ideally, New England would jump out to an early lead, then control the pace in order to demoralize the Falcons. However, at least keeping the game close early could keep doubt in the minds of the Falcons because they know the Patriots can overcome a deficit.
The Patriots have to avoid allowing early big plays or falling into an early hole. If the Falcons build momentum and get the early lead, they're not going to let off the gas this time.
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