7 Keys to Victory in Pittsburgh Steelers' Week 5 Matchup
On Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers play host to the two-win Jacksonville Jaguars. Though the Steelers got a much-needed win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4—something that hasn't been all that common in the last decade—they don't have much time to rest on their laurels. The Jaguars, for all their faults, are still formidable, and overlooking them would be a grave mistake.
With that in mind, here are seven keys to a Steelers' win in Week 5, one that would send their record to 4-1 and continue to solidify their spot at the top of the AFC North.
Stop the Run
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The Steelers defense did a great job of containing what could have been an explosive Ravens run game in Week 4, holding it to just 82 total yards after three straight weeks of 130 rushing yards or more. Linebacker Ryan Shazier and defensive end Cameron Heyward were among the biggest contributors in the effort, the latter winning AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors for the performance.
But it cannot be forgotten that just one week earlier, the Steelers allowed the Chicago Bears to run for 222 yards. Nor can it be forgotten that the Jaguars are even more prolific a running team than the Bears, ranking first in rushing attempts and second in rushing yardage, including 285 yards and three scores for rookie running back Leonard Fournette. Yet again, Pittsburgh's ability to stop the run will be tested in a big way.
Last week was an improvement, no doubt, but the next step is for the Steelers' defense to prove it can stop the run regularly, with consistency, and Fournette and company will be the next big opportunity to succeed or fail at that venture. Like Chicago, the Steelers know that the Jaguars are a run-first, run-next, keep-running team but yet could do nothing to stop it or adjust in Week 3. They cannot find themselves in the same position again, lest they experience the same results.
Don't Forget to Run the Ball, Either
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As good as the Jaguars are at defending the run, they are equally as bad at defending it. Three times has the team allowed over 130 yards rushing to its opponents this year, most recently giving up 256 yards on the ground to the New York Jets in Week 4. Jacksonville ranks dead last in the league in total rushing yards allowed this season as well as yards per carry and has given up five rushing touchdowns.
The Jaguars are coming into town at a good time for the Steelers' run game, which finally got back on track against the Ravens in Week 4, with the team totaling 173 rushing yards on their 42 attempts. Of that, 35 carries, 144 yards and two touchdowns belonged to running back Le'Veon Bell, without a doubt his best performance of the season.
Given the Jaguars' struggles stopping the run this year, Bell should have another good day on Sunday. Controlling the pace using Bell would be the more intelligent way to approach the Jaguars this week and also should be the most successful.
Protecting Ben Roethlisberger
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There is another reason for the Steelers to lean heavily on Le'Veon Bell this Sunday: The Jaguars have been quite stingy with the passing yardage they've allowed, ranking first in yards allowed and second in yards per pass attempt. They also have 18 sacks on the season. Protecting Ben Roethlisberger will be a priority on Sunday, and there are two ways for the Steelers to do that.
A pass-first approach using Ben Roethlisberger as the Steelers' primary offensive weapon could spell disaster. But luckily, the Steelers should see such great success running the ball with Bell that opportunities for Roethlisberger to be placed in perilous situations could be held to a minimum. Then, it comes down to the Steelers' offensive line keeping hold when the Steelers do need to pass the ball, as well as coordinator Todd Haley calling plays that get the ball out of Roethlisberger's hands quickly.
Roethlisberger has been sacked only seven times through four games and has thrown just two interceptions. But it must be said that he has also not seen a pass defense as stout as Jacksonville's. The good news is that run-stopping is Jacksonville's Achilles heel, but the Steelers won't be able to go through Sunday without Roethlisberger dropping back, considering that, too, is a major part of the team's offensive identity.
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Third-Down Defense
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One way to limit the damage the Jaguars can do in the run game is to keep the offense off the field. And the key to that is to come up big on third downs.
Even with Leonard Fournette and running mate Chris Ivory combining to lead the league in yards-per-rush, that hasn't helped the Jaguars much on third downs. The Jaguars are converting only 30.37 percent of their third downs this year—ranking them 29th in the league—and that drops to 25.64 percent on the road. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defense has done a great job handling third downs this year, allowing conversions on only 32.69 percent of their opponents' attempts and 33.33 percent when playing at home.
Most of the Jaguars' third-down failures are a result of the lagging passing offense. Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has thrown 39 passes on third downs—a full third of the 121 passes he's attempted this season—and he's completed only 16 of them, with just 12 conversions, a rate of 41.03 percent.
But the run game, too, has not turned many third downs into firsts; they've tried to run on third downs only 11 times this year, with four successes, mainly because they are needing to gain, on average, between 6.5 and seven yards to convert their third downs. That's not a situation that is conducive to running.
Thus, the Steelers must handle their defensive business on first and second downs this week in order to put the Jaguars into the third-and-long situations that have resulted in so many struggles and then, punts.
Don't Worry About Antonio Brown
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A week ago, Steelers receiver Antonio Brown had his lowest yardage output of the season, catching four passes on nine targets for 34 yards. He also had a bit of a sideline blowup during the game, owing in part to Ben Roethlisberger failing to see a wide-open Brown followed by an incomplete pass thrown his way. Despite Brown's slow day, the Steelers ultimately defeated the Ravens, 26-9.
Since then, Roethlisberger has called out his star receiver, saying publicly that Brown's behavior was a "distraction," one for which Brown has since apologized. But that doesn't necessarily mean a newly motivated Brown will be primed to bounce back on Sunday. In fact, it could be another down week for the wideout, but it should not matter much.
As noted, the Jaguars do not give up many passing yards to their opponents. Further, as charted by Football Outsiders, they are especially stingy against their opponents' No. 1 receivers, on average limiting them to only 32.6 yards per game. Thus, the Steelers will have to look elsewhere in general—to the run game—for its offense to thrive this week, and potentially to other receivers, when Roethlisberger is throwing the ball.
That may not make Brown happy—and it may spell disaster for another cooler full of Gatorade. But if the strategy pays off by way of a Steelers victory, it should be nothing for Pittsburgh to worry about if Brown is bottled up, as expected, by Jacksonville's coverage.
Keep an Eye on Marcedes Lewis
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Jaguars tight end Marcedes Lewis hasn't been a notable threat in terms of catch volume or yardage, with only four receptions on his 13 targets netting the Jaguars 62 yards. But three of those four catches resulted in touchdowns. While the Jaguars use him sparingly—a combination of his being 33 years old and the struggles of his quarterback Blake Bortles—they also understand the matchup advantages that can still present themselves. Lewis could thus sneakily torment Pittsburgh's defense this week if they are not careful.
The Jaguars would be wise to stay away from targeting Lewis when he's matched up in coverage against Steelers inside linebacker Ryan Shazier, who has an 85.5 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus, has defensed four passes already this year and has an interception to his name. However, Lewis against fellow inside linebacker Vince Williams could prove fruitful for Jacksonville; Williams' coverage grade is only 48.0 on the year, though he's only played 84 coverage snaps to 146 for Shazier.
The safety situation is also one the Jaguars can exploit using Lewis. Though Mike Mitchell, who missed Week 4 with a hamstring injury, was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, fellow starter Sean Davis sat out with an ankle injury. Davis' replacement would be J.J. Wilcox, who has a grade of 48.3 when in coverage, having played 154 coverage snaps so far this season.
Lewis isn't likely to blow the top off of the Steelers' pass coverage. But he can do enough to earn his team a touchdown on Sunday, especially in favorable matchup situations. One score could make the difference between a Steelers win or a loss, so keeping tabs on Lewis will be imperative on Sunday even with such a low number of catches and yards.
Not the Same Old Jaguars
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The Jaguars are not coming into Pittsburgh as a basement-dwelling team, as they have in the past. They are 2-2 on the year, and their two wins—over the Houston Texans in Week 1 and the Ravens in Week 3—have been decisive. They run the ball better than almost any team in the league, have a pass defense that can both affect quarterbacks by creating pressure and creating takeaways and don't seem daunted by heading on the road.
In short, the Steelers cannot assume these are "the same old" Jaguars; if they do, they could find themselves on the wrong end of an upset on Sunday.
Yes, the Jaguars have a quarterback problem, with Blake Bortles completing only 54.5 percent of his passes this season. But he's also thrown seven touchdowns to three interceptions and he's protected by an offensive line that has allowed only three sacks this season. That same line has catapulted the team's run game, thus reducing Bortles' liability factor. The defense, too, has helped to bail out the offense at times, though its inability to stop the run is one the Steelers can and should exploit.
In short, the Jaguars are no longer an easy out. And the Steelers playing in the friendly confines of Heinz Field should not lull them into a false sense of comfort. Worse teams have come to town and bested Pittsburgh in recent years—and in the 22 games the two teams have played since 1995, both have won 11.
The Steelers fell flat when they underestimated the then-winless Chicago Bears in Week 3 and the Jaguars are a similar team in many ways. That the Steelers went to Baltimore and won last week is a good sign they have learned their lesson, but the real test will be on the field on Sunday. Being and staying motivated will be a necessary intangible the Steelers must possess in order to win.
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